Saudi Arabia’s government is hardly known for its dynamism; since most senior roles are filled by members of the royal family there is not a lot of movement and for years the cabinet has been dominated by ageing royals. The succession in this generously sized family has been slow to move between generations. Since the death of Saudi Arabia’s founder, King Abdulaziz Al-Saud in 1953, power has been passed between his sons, from brother to brother.
Now there have been several changes to the succession, in the most significant repositioning of power since King Salman assumed the throne in January at the age of 79. The appointments, announced in a decree from the royal court, put a new generation of Saudi princes in the line of succession. King Salman has removed his half-brother as crown prince, replacing him with a nephew, and has elevated his son to the position of deputy crown prince.
The new crown prince, Mohammed Bin Nayef, is 55, and becomes the most likely successor to the king. Also the interior minister, he is internationally known as Saudi Arabia’s counter-terrorism tsar, and oversees the country’s massive police force and border guard. He will be the first of his generation – the grandsons of King Abdulaziz – to be elevated to such a high position. The appointment has been welcomed by Saudi Arabia’s staunch ally, America, where Nayef has a good reputation. He replaces Muqrin Bin Abdulaziz, half-brother of King Salman, and an ally of the late monarch.
The king’s son, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, is around 30. As the new deputy crown prince, he is second in line to the throne. He is also the country’s defence minister and has been overseeing the Saudi-led campaign of airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. In this ministerial role, he has been furthering his father’s more assertive, muscular foreign policy.
A third critical change was the removal of the long-time foreign minister, Prince Saud Al-Faisal, who was replaced with Adel Al-Jubeir, the kingdom’s ambassador to the US. This was an unusual appointment, since the role usually goes to a member of the royal family (as do other major ministerial appointments). Al-Faisal, 75, had been foreign minister for 40 years. This year, he spent several months receiving medical treatment abroad, and the decree cited health conditions as the reason for his retirement. Whatever the reason, the appointment of Al-Jubeir as well as Nayef means that two key officials with close ties to the US have been elevated.
What the reshuffle shows above all else is that King Salman is turning the page on the era of his predecessor. King Abdullah became monarch in 2005, but was the country’s de facto leader for a decade before that, and he cast a long shadow. In promoting these two men in the line of succession, King Salman is also reinforcing his commitment to a more aggressive foreign policy. Since his accession to the throne, Saudi Arabia has used its immense wealth and military resources to influence regional conflict. While backdoor Saudi involvement is nothing new, under King Abdullah, there was not much direct intervention. In addition to entering the Yemen conflict, King Salman has prioritised support for Syrian rebels fighting against Bashar Al-Assad. Some analysts suggest that he wants Saudi Arabia to replace the US as the biggest military force in the region, given Obama’s much-discussed pivot to Asia. (Although, it is worth noting that Obama is about to meet with Gulf leaders for the second time in just a few months).
The various conflicts raging in the Middle East are not the only concern for Saudi Arabia’s government. The oil-rich nation – the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil – is currently suffering because of a protracted slump in oil prices which has undermined its economic growth. The kingdom wants to stir investor interest, and is particularly concerned about the potential lifting of western sanctions against its arch-rival Iran, as this could lead to competition for capital as well as influence.
Another factor may be the fact that Saudi Arabia’s demographics are shifting. Around 46 per cent of the population are under 24 years old. In general, youth bulges like this are associated with social unrest – something which Saudi Arabia has little tolerance for at the best of times, and is particularly concerned about at the present moment given the upheaval across the region. In this context, a government dominated by ageing and infirm septuagenarians can only appear out of touch. King Salman is hoping to inject some fresh blood without being forced into wholesale reform.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.