Has the non-violent approach ended in Egypt?

Has the non-violent approach to protests ended in Egypt? This seems to be the question on everyone’s lips after six civilians had their death sentences carried out with extraordinary haste last week, despite the fact that some were already behind bars when the alleged crime took place. The hangings, on the day after Mohamed Morsi and more than 100 others were condemned, sent a clear message to the people of Egypt that the regime is serious about clearing the streets. In the Egypt that has survived the military ouster of its first democratically elected president, a mufti is now left to decide the fate of those also sentenced to hang.

Such a development makes Muslim Brotherhood slogans such as “our non-violence is stronger than bullets” more legitimate in this day and age, especially since any talk of peaceful protest since the military coup led by Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is now apparently a punishable crime. His regime wants nothing more than to empty all of Egypt’s public squares and gathering places.

Since the onset of the coup, there have been many disagreements among protesters and members of the Brotherhood over what non-violent means should be employed by the opposition alliance. The youth, in particular, feel as though demonstrations alone will not be sufficient to overthrow the forces behind the coup. The Sisi regime responds to peaceful demonstrations with violence and live ammunition; demonstrators calling for democracy are in serious danger of being killed or arrested for political reasons. Still, though, despite all of this, their leaders ask them to stay peaceful and non-violent. The regime’s violent reaction to peaceful protests has had a negative effect on the number of demonstrators on the street; due to the increased risk of maltreatment, the mobilisation of people on the streets has reduced significantly.

As a result, the death sentences handed out recently by the Egyptian government place the Muslim Brotherhood and its leadership in a very difficult position with its youth members in particular, because so long as the latter abide by the non-violent strategy which continues to be met mercilessly by the regime, they will not achieve their ultimate goal. In fact, in the midst of these developments, Egyptian youth have changed their slogan to “Underneath the bullets and killing… There is non-violence”.

What is the regime itself hoping to achieve from such escalation? According to the Arab Organisation for Human Rights in Britain, more than 1,600 severe sentences have been issued, including 520 with the death penalty, and all await a decision from Egypt’s Chief Mufti which will decide whether they go ahead or not. The sheer scale of these sentences is intentional for various reasons, the most important of which is to put pressure on the Muslim Brotherhood to enter into negotiations with the government and accept the fait accompli of the coup. In exchange for the movement’s acceptance, Al-Sisi would use his constitutional powers to grant an amnesty to Mohamed Morsi. This outcome may well be unlikely because the idea of dying for the sake of God is a believer’s biggest aspiration. We could see the exchange of smiles between members of the Brotherhood such as Mohamed El-Beltagy and Murshid Mohamed Badie when they were sentenced to death.

Perhaps another of the regime’s goals is to push Egyptian demonstrators to a point where they will resort to violence, especially the youth. What we would have then is a duplication of the situation in Syria, where the youth and opposition took it upon themselves to engage in an armed conflict in response to regime violence. If that happens, we would wait for a magical US solution to the conflict and be placed in a situation where we cannot have negotiations without the participation of the regime; for Al-Assad, read Al-Sisi.

The regime’s third goal is to perpetuate violence and create a sense of panic and disorder within Egyptian society so that the population is convinced that there is no safety with the Muslim Brotherhood around. As for the Brotherhood itself, it has always been and will continue to be committed to the idea of non-violence. The question now is whether or not the movement will be able to convince the youth in Egypt not to resort to violence so that they can retain the values of the 2011 revolution. This will be difficult to accomplish in the middle of escalating state violence. In the event that the youth are not convinced to maintain peaceful protests, will they resort to unorganised violence so that it becomes impossible to control them?

Egypt could find itself in the grip of many violent groups, each trying to combat a violent regime; or we could see more creativity in the use of peaceful protest and non-violent demonstrations. Either way, it is difficult to predict because of the divisions within the ranks of the revolutionaries and the shocking potential for violence on all sides, some of which is now very apparent.

Translated from Al-Araby Al-Jadid, 28 May, 2015

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.