Will Turkey’s Justice and Development Party succeed in its first elections led by Davutoglu?

Since the elections held on 7 June in which Ahmet Davutoglu was head of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey’s electoral battle has witnessed a political polarisation and alignment that is strange. At the centre of this has been Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as the voters had to either vote with Erdogan or against him. At that point, the political parties organised their political discourse and media campaigns to target President Erdogan personally, who went to the election field in a manner that cast doubts regarding his impartiality, which is imposed by the Turkish Constitution on the President of the Republic.

Truth must be told that the opposition parties had focused their election campaigns on provoking and attacking Erdogan and his family members in a personal manner that broke the rules of tactfulness and politeness as well as the rules of political polarisation, reaching the level of insults and offensive attacks. The Turkish newspaper SOZCU, owned by Turkish media mogul Aydin Dogan, continues to lead the media war against Erdogan. Everyday, it writes at least one article insulting and attacking Erdogan and his family, forcing Erdogan to personally stand in the arena and defend himself and his political legacy.

At this point, the opposition bloc, consisting of a coalition of political parties, media organisation, the parallel opposing entity (Fethullah Gulen’s group), and a considerable number of civil society organisations that are backed by businessmen and holding companies, has succeeded in forcing the AKP, along with President Erdogan, to shift from a position of praising their achievements during their term and explaining their future projects to a position of self-defence and responding to the large-scale media campaign and psychological war waged against them. This campaign is backed by international media organisations, such as The Times of Britain, The Economist, CNN, etc., which have greatly succeeded in establishing a stereotype that portrays President Erdogan as a man who seeks to be a Middle Eastern dictator. However, their task has been made easier by the fact that the AKP was involved in changing the political system from a 90-year-old parliamentary system created by the citizens to a presidential system the party was unable to explain or promote. The average citizen is still unable to understand the positivity of this system amongst the blinding fog and the fierce political war.

In the end, Turkish citizens headed to the ballot box on 7 June to either vote for Erdogan or against him. On that day, no one paid attention to the political parties’ programmes or to their promises, because the political polarisation had reached its climax. This ultimately led to a complete political stalemate and no attempts to break through and create a coalition government, a minority government, or even a temporary elected government were successful. Instead, for the first time in Turkey’s history, the end result was implementing Article 14 of the constitution which governs such extraordinary circumstances. The question here is: Is the situation today different than what it was during the 7 June elections?

Perhaps the “silver lining” here is that Ahmet Davutoglu’s relative failure in the past elections gave him an opportunity to take control of matters himself by evaluating the previous phase and consider the mistakes that were made during the planning stage, which led to their failure. This allowed Davutoglu to take control and hold the reins in his hands in a more controlled manner, thus allowed him to be the true leader of the AKP.

The transitional period posed a true test of Ahmet Davutoglu’s leadership capabilities and also posed an opportunity for him to prove his personal worth in an independent manner, away from Erdogan’s direct support. He led the political process alone, from the negotiations to form the coalition government to managing the economy and foreign policy, as the wars in Syria and Iraq negatively affected the security and economy. He has also dealt with leading the war on terror. This terrorism had tried to exploit the political vacuum in Turkey, as the PKK went against the truce and violated the national reconciliation project, as well as attempted to create independent cells in some remote areas in southeastern Turkey. They were followed by other armed left-wing groups, such as DHKP-C and Daesh, which carried out suicide attacks in Ankara, killing 102 citizens in the largest terrorist act in Turkey. This clearly highlights how foreign fingers are trying to pressure Turkey and distract it with its internal issues, as well as push it into the corner of self-defence in order to prevent it from playing its regional role, particularly in Syria.

However, Davutoglu, who won his party’s confidence after winning leadership of the party in the General Conference, shined in the negotiations with the Republican People’s Party aiming to form the coalition government. He showed unprecedented flexibility and positivity in his meeting with the other political parties and factions. He was able to show great strength and firmness in confronting terrorism, as he did not fold under the pressures of terrorism inside the country nor to the blackmail of international and regional forces, despite the hefty cost Turkey is now paying for its war against terrorism. This is also in spite of the fact that the opposition parties have refused to provide even the lowest levels of political support, even in matters that threaten Turkey’s strategic security and despite the disappointment from friendly NATO countries, which merely issued hesitant statements that condemn terrorism without taking any steps or measures to prevent it.

Ahmet Davutoglu, Prime Minister and Head of the Justice and Development Party, who has passed every difficult test thrown at him during this critical and complicated time in history, has proven his maturity and political wisdom, thus winning the hearts and trust of millions. It seems that he is now prepared, capable, and qualified to lead his party to a landslide victory in the elections on 1 November, which will allow him to form a government on his own.

Translated from AlKhaleejonline.net, 31 October 2015

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.