clear

Creating new perspectives since 2009

Turkey and the EU need each other

July 22, 2016 at 10:28 am

The Syrian crisis could be perceived as a source of chaos that troubles and burdens Turkey in many ways, creating an unprecedented disarray the country has not witnessed before. Turkey alone hosts more than 3.1 million refugees of whom 2.7 million are Syrian.

Turkey’s national security and economy are being put at stake by the Syrian crisis. Turkey’s active foreign policy is the main reason behind the country’s troubles. Yet people underestimate the strategic rationale behind Turkey’s Syria policy.

In reality, the Syrian civil war has opened the gate for Turkey to achieve some of its short term goals. Most importantly, it has demonstrated that the EU needs Turkey. It also highlighted its intention to increase its influence in the area of international security and possibly compete with the United States. However, the EU may not want Turkey to join its club.

For several years, Turkey’s foreign relations have had much in common with Europe’s foreign policies. Today Europe may need an alliance with Turkey more than ever, and it has benefitted greatly from having Turkey on its side.

Europe’s Influence

After WWII, Europe was devastated. Despite its recovery during the Cold War, it remained hard to tell whether Europe would rise again as a superpower or not. In the 1980s many predicted that Europe’s influence would wane. However, what we are witnessing is the opposite. Andrew Moravcsik, professor at Princeton University and the author of Europe: The quiet superpower, claims that Europe’s impact stands on high per capita income, long-term institutional advantages and fundamental mutual interests between the European nations and other great powers, especially the United States. The EU is the world’s biggest exporter and importer. Among the main nine international exporters, five are European: Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.

The European agenda today differs from America’s. Economically, Europe’s influence is increasing day by day, however it remained insignificant in the Middle East due to the conflicts and foreign interventions the region is witnessing. Yet, through its colonial history, Europe shows that it is more connected to the Middle East and Africa than the US. The American war on Iraq, for instance, highlights the US’ inability to easily access the region. It was hard for the US to find people who could assimilate into Iraqi society and so its army couldn’t cooperate well with people during its operations. The same scenario has perpetuated in Afghanistan and some other nations.

Today, Europe seems unable to withstand the new world order. It is clearly withdrawing from the Middle East and therefore losing its rank day by day. However the EU could maintain a considerable position that would offer it legitimacy in the region if it includes a Muslim state; after all, only Europe and Turkey are actively dealing with the refugee crisis in Syria.

Europe v America

We’re living in a world that lacks unity and smooth coalitions. Despite sharing a common cause and fighting against a common enemy which was the Soviet Union during the 1990s, Europe and the United States now seem to be disconnected. Europe may need a new ally that would militarily increase its power and re-active NATO once again. Therefore, even if the US is the strongest military power in the organisation, having Turkey – which has the second largest number of ground troops in NATO – by Europe’s side would make the latter more effective and functional.

Turkey is the strongest military power in the Middle East, and has one of the largest economies. It also represents the only gate that connects Europe to the Middle East, putting it in a privileged position. Most of the time, Turkey’s foreign policy toward the Middle East and even Africa sides with Europe.

Concerning the Palestinian case for example, most aid to the Palestinians has come from Europe. More than that, Europe’s policy towards the Middle East differs greatly to that of the US. No Middle East settlement would be possible without European aid to zones to which the United States is unwilling to give aid.

Since 2007 and after the big success of the AKP party which stabilised Turkey’s domestic policy and security, it should be noted that Turkey has become an autonomous and independent player in the region. Though it used to follow the US’ lead during political crises in the Middle East, but the conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza changed the equation. This shift has bolstered a further independent foreign policy in the Middle East, and arguably led to inconsistencies with the US. The Egyptian coup d’état highlights this.

Five years into the Syrian crisis and Turkey’s plans have not been achieved; Bashar Al-Assad is still in power. However, it is true to say that neither the US nor the EU is able to achieve any operational success in Syria without Turkey’s cooperation.

While witnessing Iran’s interference and Russia’s direct intervention, the Syrian crisis will remain a major regional and international issue that will be difficult to tackle.

Starting from 2003, when Europe and Turkey independently disagreed with the US’ invasion of Iraq, Turkey’s foreign policy has been similar close to that of Europe. This is meant to serve mutual interests. Indeed, Turkey has always looked to be acknowledged as an active geopolitical power. Europe would be the most suitable ally – better than the United States – in granting this interest.

Since the UK has decided to leave the EU, this is a chance to reconsider Turkey as one of its state members, especially as it is clear that the EU without Turkey will have limited influence. Simply, the EU needs Turkey in order to restore its position and weight over the world once again.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.