In the Middle East, Rex Tillerson would inherit a messy situation

If confirmed, Rex Tillerson – the ex-oil executive, who is Donald Trump’s tip for Secretary of State – would face a messy, complex world as the chief US diplomat.

Below are brief descriptions of some of the problems that will land on his plate if he is confirmed by the US Senate as the 69th US secretary of state after a career spent at Exxon Mobil Corp, where he rose to be chief executive.

Syria

Tillerson will inherit an increasingly complex conflict in Syria, where the rebel-held eastern portion of Aleppo is on the verge of falling to Syrian government forces backed by Russia, Iran and Shi’ite militias from Lebanon and Iraq.

The civil war, now well into its sixth year, pits President Bashar al-Assad against a range of rebel groups, many supported by outside powers including the United States, Turkey and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

During the US presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump suggested his top priority was defeating the Daesh militant group that has launched attacks in Europe and inspired mass-casualty attacks in the United States.

If Trump cooperates with Russia against Daesh, which holds a swath of northeastern Syria, there is a risk that moderate rebels, angered by what they viewed as abandonment by the United States, could gravitate toward militant Islamist factions that pose a potential threat to Western interests.

Moreover, the persistent bloodshed could unleash new and destabilizing waves of refugees into neighboring nations from which they could then attempt to reach Europe. Earlier refugee flows triggered a backlash that has bolstered far-right nationalist parties in Europe.

Cooperating with Russia would cause other complications for the new US administration. For one thing, it could, by extension, align the United States with Iran and its Lebanese proxy militia, Hezbollah. Iran has used its ties to Syria to project force in the region, a troubling fact for Israeli officials not eager to see Tehran extend its influence.

Iraq

Next door in Iraq, Tillerson will confront a country struggling to overcome deep ethnic and sectarian divisions as it fights to stamp out the Daesh insurgency with the help of some 6,000 US support troops and military advisers.

Even if Iraqi security forces prevail in retaking the Daesh stronghold of Mosul, the country’s second-largest city, the extremist group is expected to revert to waging a guerrilla war against the Shi’ite-dominated central government.

If so, that could force Trump and Tillerson to decide whether the United States should remain engaged – and attempt to counterbalance the powerful influence of neighboring Shi’ite-led Iran – or play a diminished role.

Tillerson also may face a renewed drive by Iraq’s minority Kurds, trained and armed by the United States to fight Daesh, for independence for their oil-rich autonomous northern region.

Such a move, which the United States has opposed, would raise the threat of a conflict between the Kurds and Baghdad that could affect the international petroleum market. It could also fuel demands by Kurds in Syria and in Turkey for greater autonomy, a prospect that Turkish officials bitterly oppose.

Iran

Trump has harshly criticized the agreement struck on July 14, 2015, between Iran and six major powers under which Tehran agreed to restrain its nuclear program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.

Many Republicans, particularly in the US Congress, have argued that the deal, negotiated by the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, should be torn up.

While Trump has been critical of the agreement, it is not certain he would actually abrogate it.

For one thing, Israeli officials quietly say that they prefer to have Iran live under the deal’s restraints and subject to its transparency measures, than totally freed from both, which could allow them to race to acquire nuclear weapons.

Further, if the United States were to be blamed for the agreement’s collapse, it would be unlikely to find much sympathy among its European allies to reimpose sanctions on Tehran.

Even if the deal holds, Tillerson may have his hands full trying to find ways to counter Iranian support for Syria’s Assad, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis, the militia fighting the Saudi-backed government in Yemen.