Tunisia’s security is improving, but its economy is in decline

As we approach the end of 2016, Tunisia will look back and see that although neither its economy nor social situation have improved this year — despite the predictions of the politicians in power — its security situation has improved remarkably.

This was demonstrated when more than 4,000 people — around half of whom came from overseas — attended a recent international investment seminar. Even though threats had been made by certain terrorist organisations, nobody at the event came to any harm.

This was no coincidence; there were objective factors involved in this important result, especially given the current dangerous regional instability, in which the use of weapons is on the rise. Notably, these factors include a measurable improvement in the performance of the security forces, which had been dealt a number of blows in 2015: in March last year Tunisia witnessed the Bardo National Museum attack, in which 20 tourists and 4 local people were killed. This was followed in June by the heinous attack on the beach at Sousse, which killed almost 40 people, again mainly tourists. Both attacks damaged the tourism industry.

The year 2015 ended with a military operation against the presidential security team. This was considered as a blatant and direct challenge to the most important sector within the security institution.

However, clashes involving the security forces have declined by almost half this year in comparison to the 2015 statistics. In addition, large scale raids and arrests of individuals affiliated with terrorist networks have taken place, according to sources at the interior ministry.

The area of Ben Gardane, on the Tunisia-Libya border, saw a group of armed men from Libya controlling this border city for over three hours in March this year. The security forces and army, backed by local civilians, managed to take control of the situation and kill most of the individuals involved while restoring security to the city. This boosted the morale not only of security officials but also the entire Tunisian nation.

The operation was a critical turning point in the psychological and military sense. It revealed that Tunisian security officers have the necessary expertise to tackle such armed groups, which specialise in guerrilla warfare.

We can say that the military and security institutions in Tunisia have, after five years of confrontations, gained the necessary skills and expertise in this type of war, the first of their kind in Tunisia since the establishment of the national state. The war has thus allowed them to identify the enemy accurately, along with its modus operandi, tactics, leaders and members. They also know how long action on the ground is needed in such firefights.

We cannot discount the military and security equipment now available to the Tunisian armed forces. The country wasn’t equipped to fight this type of war, and the terrorists knew this and had the upper hand. Today, though, this has changed and the difference is tangible, even though it has cost Tunisia a large portion of the national budget. Foreign aid and support has also helped in this regard, allowing the security forces to move onto the offensive and take pre-emptive steps to confuse Tunisia’s enemies.

Sleeper cells have not been given any time to act, which has caught them off guard. They have lost their concentration and planning capabilities.

There is no doubt that the recent developments on the ground in Libya, Iraq and Syria have had a direct impact on the security situation in Tunisia. The harsh blows against Daesh suggest that it is facing an existential threat.

Since militants holding Tunisian citizenship occupy important positions in the organisation’s ranks, in the past few weeks it has witnessed the death of a significant number of its key members. This will weaken its ranks within and beyond the borders of Tunisia.

This is the reality in Tunisia at the end of 2016. It is difficult to predict what things will be like next year. However, we are certain that the security threat has declined, putting Tunisia on a par with France and Italy this year in terms of security threats, according to reliable international reports. This has made the economic challenge the number one issue facing the democratic transition process in Tunisia.

Translated from Arabi21, 11 December, 2016

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.