Al-Aqsa Flood: Why now?

Why did the Palestinian resistance choose this sensitive timing to execute the massive operation “Al-Aqsa Flood”? What are the reasons that prompted them to launch it at this particular moment?

To begin the discussion, we should draw lessons from history. Palestine is a living model of colonialism and settlement. History shows that the Zionist settlement project began in the late nineteenth century. Since then, the implementation started gradually, beginning with the First Zionist Congress and the declaration of the goal of establishing a Jewish state in Palestine. Later, Jewish migration was facilitated under the British Mandate, and the immigrants laid the groundwork for the state of Israel in 1948. Subsequently, more Palestinian territories were occupied after the 1967 aggression, going beyond the principles of international law and even the partition plan.

History reveals to us that every colonial phenomenon has received resistance and, often, resistance starts weak and gradually grows due to various factors, including belief in the cause, popular support and sometimes external aid. Thus, resistance methods have evolved over time into what we know today as asymmetric warfare, where irregular forces confront regular armies.

But why now?

The current Israeli government exhibits extremism unlike any seen before, with ministers (i.e.  Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich) advocating extremist ideas, seeking to expand settlements and showing disregard for the religious sanctities of Muslims and Christians. This escalation in colonial practices has significantly impacted the Palestinian issue and changed its course.

Additionally, Israeli settlement activities have expanded extensively and, therefore, the current Israeli government was supposed to play a bigger role in achieving a settlement and implementing the “land for peace” principle. With over 30 years since the Oslo Accords without any progress, this situation has motivated Palestinian resistance movements to reconsider their strategy in response to Israeli escalation.

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Therefore, the Al-Aqsa Flood battle is not but a new episode in a long series of historical conflicts between Palestinians and Israelis. This timing reflects the rising tensions and evolving circumstances in the region.

So, when diplomatic doors close and peace efforts stagnate, it becomes imperative to explore alternative means. This moment typically marks the beginning of discussions about non-political solutions. In this context, Netanyahu’s statement was explicit, emphasising there is no talk of a two-state solution, no negotiations on the Palestinian cause and that the focus is solely on achieving peace between Israel and Arab countries, as if the Palestinian cause had become a forgotten relic of the past.

Under these circumstances, there must be supporting factors for an operation like the Al-Aqsa Flood. The execution of such operations typically requires planning and secrecy, and the moment of initiation, known as “hour zero”, is usually kept confidential. Lessons can be drawn from the history of our previous wars, such as the October 1973 war, where Egypt employed a strategy of deception to confuse Israeli intelligence efforts.

The current Israeli government has become more extremist than any previous one, prompting the resistance to escalate. The Benjamin Netanyahu government has shown disregard for international law and continued its settlement activities while provoking religious sensitivities. In this context, Hamas might have signalled some level of understanding with the Netanyahu government in an effort to maintain its power in the Gaza Strip. While the Israeli government might have expected this, the execution of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation came as a surprise and had a significant impact.

Hence, Al-Aqsa Flood should not be seen as a surprise for Palestinians. It is a continuation of the historical pattern in an occupied land. However, why at this specific time? It’s due to the continuous Israeli provocations and the growing normalisation that bypasses the Palestinian issue. These circumstances urged the Palestinian leadership to assert the importance of their cause to the world. The Palestinian cause must remain central, as continuing to neglect Palestinian rights will only lead to reactions matching the extent of this neglect. This is the message that Israeli journalist Gideon Levy tried to convey to Israeli society in his article published on 8 October in Haaretz.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.