Israel's next problem: who will run post-war Gaza?

The plan for post-war Gaza that Israel has pitched to its US allies is to run the Strip in cooperation with powerful local Palestinian clans. However, there’s a problem: in a place where Hamas still wields ruthless influence, nobody wants to be seen talking to the enemy.

Israel is under pressure from Washington to end the loss of human life and wind down its military offensive after nearly nine months, but does not want Hamas in charge after the war. Israeli officials have, therefore, been trying to plot a path ahead for the day after the fighting stops.

A major pillar of the plan, according to public statements from leading Israeli officials, is to shape an alternative civil administration involving local Palestinian actors not part of the existing structures of power and willing to work alongside the occupation state. The only plausible candidates in Gaza for this role – the heads of powerful local families – are unwilling to get involved, according to Reuters conversations with five members of major families in Gaza, including the head of one clan.

Tahani Mustafa, Senior Palestine Analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said that the Israelis have been “actively looking” for local tribes and families on the ground to work with them. “They refused.”

They don’t want to get involved, in part because they fear retribution from Hamas, explained Mustafa.

He is in touch with some of the families and other local stakeholders in Gaza.

That threat appears to be real because – despite Israel’s explicit war objective of destroying Hamas – the Palestinian resistance movement still has operatives enforcing its will on the streets of Gaza, six residents told Reuters. Asked what the outcome would be for any head of Gaza’s powerful families if they cooperate with Israel, the director of the Hamas-run government media office in Gaza, Ismail Al-Thawabta, said: “I expect it to be lethal.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged the challenges last week, claiming in an interview with Israel’s Channel 14 TV that the defence ministry had already made attempts to reach out to Gaza clans but “Hamas eliminated” them. He said that the defence ministry had a new plan, but would not give details other than specifying he was not willing to bring in the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority, which currently administers parts of the occupied West Bank.

Reuters could not establish if Israel’s efforts to work with the families are ongoing. However, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant discussed post-war plans with US officials at a meeting in Washington last week. Briefing reporters during his visit, Gallant said: “The only solution for the future of Gaza is governance by local Palestinians. It cannot be Israel and cannot be Hamas.” He did not mention the clans specifically.

Contacted for comment, the prime minister’s office referred Reuters to Netanyahu’s previous public comments on the topic. Israel’s defence ministry did not respond to Reuters questions.

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Israel launched its military offensive against the Palestinians in Gaza after a Hamas-led cross-border incursion on 7 October last year in which around 1,200 people were killed, many of them by soldiers of the Israel Defence Forces, according to media reports. Around 250 Israelis were taken back to Gaza as hostages.

The Israeli offensive has since killed nearly 38,000 Palestinians, mainly children and women, and wounded more than 80,000 more. An additional 8-10,000 Palestinians are missing, presumed dead, under the rubble of their homes destroyed by Israeli bombs, which have also destroyed civilian infrastructure and homes across the enclave.

Gaza has dozens of powerful families who function as well-organised clans. Many do not have formal links to Hamas. They derive their power from controlling businesses and command the loyalty of hundreds or thousands of relatives. Each family has a leader, known as a mukhtar.

The British colonial mandate rulers of Palestine before the state of Israel was created in 1948 relied heavily on mukhtars to govern. After Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Assembly election it curtailed the power of the families, although they have retained a degree of autonomy.

Israel already speaks to some Gaza merchants, to coordinate commercial shipments through a southern border crossing controlled by the occupation forces. Residents are reluctant to disclose any interactions with Israel.

The approaches from Israel described by members of the Gaza clans were modest in scope but different: they were about practical issues inside Gaza itself, and focused on the north of the Strip, where Israel says it is concentrating its civil governance efforts.

One of Gaza’s clan leaders, who asked not to be named, told Reuters that Israeli officials had contacted other mukhtars — although not him — in the past few weeks. He said that he knew about it because the recipients of the calls told him about them.

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He said that the Israeli officials wanted “some respected and influential people” to help with aid deliveries in northern Gaza.

“I expect that mukhtars will not cooperate with these games,” he said, citing anger with Israel over its offensive, which has killed clan members and destroyed property.

His clan is a major player in agriculture and the Gaza import business. It has no formal connection to Hamas.

In other links between Israel and influential Palestinians in Gaza, officials from the Israeli defence ministry have in the past two weeks contacted two major Gaza business owners in the food sector, according to a Palestinian briefed on the contacts. It was unclear what the Israelis wanted to talk about, and the business owners, who are from the north of Gaza, apparently refused to engage with them.

A senior member of a different clan said that Israeli officials had not contacted his clan, but would be given short shrift if they did. “We are not collaborators,” the clan member told Reuters. “Israel should stop these games.” He also has no formal connection to Hamas.

Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi said last week that the government had authorised the armed forces to find “a local leadership, willing to live side by side with Israel and not to devote its life to killing Israelis.” Speaking through a translator at a conference, he said the process was starting in the northern part of Gaza, and practical results should be seen soon.

Besides civil administration, the other pillars of Israel’s plan for post-war Gaza include bringing in a security force from outside to keep order, seeking international help with reconstruction, and searching for a long-term peace settlement. The Arab states whose support Israel would need say they won’t get involved unless Israel agrees a firm timeline for a Palestinian state, something that Netanyahu says he will not be pushed into doing.

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Throughout the war, Washington has advocated for reforms to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA) and prepare it to govern Gaza, which it used to run before Hamas won the 2006 election. The result of the election, although declared “free and fair” by international observers, has never been accepted by Israel and its allies, or Fatah.

Netanyahu has said that he doesn’t trust the PA, which in turn says he seeks to keep Gaza and the West Bank divided. Support is weak for the PA among Palestinians in Gaza, according to a 12 June poll by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR). However, two US officials told Reuters that Netanyahu may have little choice but to turn security over to the PA. “It’s going to be a fight,” said one, “but there is no other short-to-medium term option.”

Israel has yet to develop a concrete post-war plan for governance and security in the enclave, said the officials, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Both said that Israeli officials were considering a range of ideas but did not provide details.

The US State Department did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

While some Palestinians in Gaza blame Hamas for inciting the war, others, angered and radicalised by Israel’s offensive, have drawn closer to the movement, with its declared commitment to ending Israel’s military occupation of Palestine, suggest PCPSR polls.

Hamas has recognised that it is unlikely to govern after the war, but expects to retain influence.

According to one Gaza resident — who requested anonymity, fearing reprisals — he saw members of the Hamas police force touring the streets of Gaza City in June, warning merchants against hiking prices. They were in plain clothes instead of their usual uniforms, and moved around on bicycles, he explained.

The movement’s fighters have intervened to control aid shipments, and are alleged by four residents from the city who spoke to Reuters to have killed at the start of this year some clan figures who tried to take over the shipments in Gaza City. Hamas declined to comment about the killings.

In April, Hamas said that its security services arrested several members of a security apparatus loyal to the Ramallah-based PA. Three people close to the PA said that the arrested men were escorting a delivery of aid to northern Gaza Strip.

“There is no [power] vacuum in Gaza,” said Michael Milshtein, a former colonel in Israeli military intelligence who now heads the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Centre in Israel. “Hamas is still the prominent power.”

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