Why don’t calls for demonstrations succeed in Egypt?

Once again, calls by what the media called the “Friday of Dignity” movement for demonstrations in Egypt to overthrow the regime of Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi have failed to get people onto the streets. This is no longer a surprise, as such calls have been repeated several times over the past five years, and the result was always the same: no one took to the streets.

Every movement has reasons and motives, every political or popular change has elements for success, and every regime has a different way of dealing with the anger of the people and the movement of the political and media elites. Those who follow Egyptian affairs will find that all the causes of anger are present, strong and unmistakable. Electricity is cut off for hours on end and there is no house in Egypt that isn’t suffering from extreme heat due to the power outages. Cases of death by suffocation inside the elevators in residential buildings in Egypt continue to increase in number, the latest of which was of a 9-year-old child.

Israeli gas supplies to Egypt have been reduced, causing petrochemical and fertiliser factories to halt production. This is causing a significant increase in the prices of fertilisers and thus crops. Ordinary Egyptians have been surprised by sudden, large price rises, an increase of more than 50 per cent in the prices of basic food commodities such as tomatoes and rice.

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The repression is increasing in frequency and affecting most Egyptians.

Only last week, public voices exploded in anger over the death of Egyptian footballer Ahmed Refaat and similar scandals involving officials, businessmen and media professionals who have a direct relationship with the Egyptian General Intelligence service. Talk on the Egyptian streets is now about the responsible party that is trying to divert the accusations away from them.

A few days ago, Egyptian cyclist Shahd Saeed tried to hurt her national teammate Ganna Eliwa by crashing into her intentionally to keep her from participating in the 2024 Paris Olympics. She succeeded. The Egyptian Olympic delegation duly announced Saeed’s participation in the Olympics, which prompted people to ask who would protect her. It turned out that she represents the military establishment and is supported by the army, so no one else can compete with her.

Amid general Egyptian anger over such incidents, the new governor of Dakahlia shocked everyone by committing several legal violations against a poor Egyptian woman. She was buying bread from a bakery, only for the governor to track her down, storm into her house without permission from any legal authority, film her and her husband, broadcast the video clips on social media, and then seize the bread in the house.

It later became known that this governor is none other than Major General Tariq Marzouk, former First Assistant Minister of the Interior for the Prisons Service and the primary person responsible for the torture, extrajudicial killings and medical negligence seen within Egyptian prisons in the past few years.

The reasons for public anger against Al-Sisi and his regime are both obvious and abundant; one article is not enough to list them all in detail. They have affected everyone, rich and poor alike; the politicians and the media, the elites and the couch party. Everyone has become oppressed and dominated, unable to speak, and looking for an opportunity to migrate, even if they are already 80 years old, which was the case with Dr Hassan Nafaa, who is surrounded by Al-Sisi’s regime which refuses to grant him even a driving licence.

The right to demonstrate is a constitutional and legal right through which Egyptian citizens are able to express their opinions and reject the regime’s policies.

However, under Al-Sisi, it has become a crime punishable by law, and those exercising this right are subjected to forced disappearance and imprisonment for years on trumped-up charges.

All previous calls for demonstrations came from individuals, either activists abroad or videos of unknown people who claimed to be inside Egypt, which was the case with the latest call. I am not using the term revolution here because revolutions do not occur on a specified date, but are cumulative actions with the element of surprise, and the masses join whoever started the movement and it turns into a revolution. This was the case on 25 January, 2011.

For a movement to succeed, there must be someone to support it, believe in it and mobilise supporters to act as the spark that breaks the barrier of fear and begins the chants. The masses then join in, and it becomes a solid bloc that is difficult to break or deal with violently on the security level. Such a party or organisation does not exist at the moment in Egypt because Al-Sisi has suppressed everyone for ten years and counting.

Egyptian political forces, internally and externally, must come together once again to create political momentum and rebuild their popular bases, taking advantage of the currently growing popular anger against Al-Sisi and his regime. Without this political lever, no online movement will succeed, and satellite channels will not turn into political parties calling on people to take to the street without leadership, organisation or a clear goal.

Translated from Arabi21, 13 July 2024

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