Is Germany’s arms export controversy a sign of the Zionist project's diminishing support?

The German government has denied reports that it has suspended arms exports to Israel, despite earlier claims suggesting a pause due to legal challenges related to violations of international law in Gaza where the occupation state is accused of committing genocide against the Palestinians.

“There is no German arms export boycott against Israel,” a government spokesperson is reported to have said by Haaretz. The denial came in response to initial reports from a source who is believed to be close to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, suggesting that Germany had halted new arms export authorisations to Israel due to ongoing legal challenges.

“There is no moratorium on arms exports to Israel, and there will be no moratorium,” insisted the ministry. The spokesperson further emphasised that arms export authorisations are granted on a case-by-case basis, considering current situations and foreign and security policy considerations.

Over the past year, German arms exports to Israel reached $363.5 million, a tenfold increase over the previous year. However, 2024 has seen a marked decline in export approvals, with only $16m worth of weapons sales given the go ahead from January to 21 August, according to data from the ministry. If the current rate continues for the remainder of the year, the total arms exports for 2024 are projected to reach approximately $24m. This would represent a steep decline of about 93.4 per cent compared with the 2023 figures, highlighting a sharp downturn in Germany’s arms exports to Israel this year

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The conflicting reports are seen as evidence of deep tensions within the German government. While the Chancellery maintains unequivocal support for Israel, despite allegations of genocide, the Greens-led Economic Affairs and Foreign Ministries have grown increasingly critical of Benjamin Netanyahu and his extreme right-wing government.

Germany’s stance contrasts with actions taken by other nations. The UK recently suspended thirty out of 350 licences for arms exports to Israel due to concerns over potential violations of international humanitarian law. In February, a Dutch court ordered the Netherlands to halt all exports of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel. Even the US briefly paused some bomb shipments to Israel earlier this year, although these have since resumed.

According to Alexander Schwarz, a lawyer at the European Centre for Constitutional and Human Rights, which has filed multiple lawsuits against Berlin, the significant decline in arms export approvals for 2024 might indicate a genuine, albeit possibly temporary, reluctance to supply weapons to the Zionist project.

For Israel, a suspension or even a significant reduction in arms exports from its key Western allies would not only severely weaken its defence capabilities, but could also pose an existential threat.

Moreover, it would undermine its objective of Jewish supremacy in historic Palestine, rendering it increasingly unsustainable.

This vulnerability was highlighted following Israel’s latest terror attacks, with explosives detonated in markets, cafes, homes and public spaces across Lebanon. “Let me repeat. If you must keep murdering more and more people in order to survive, and use a (temporary) superpower to prop up fragile regimes around you for the illusion of peace, you are, simply, not sustainable,” remarked the renowned Lebanese author of The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

“There are 37 abandoned Crusader fortresses in the Levant,” Taleb pointed out, implying that Israel could face a similar fate and eventually disappear if it fails to coexist peacefully with its neighbours.

Let me repeat. If you must keep murdering more and more people in order to survive, & use a (temporary) superpower to prop up fragile regimes around you for the illusion of peace, you are, simply, not sustainable.

There are 37 abandoned Crusader fortresses in the Levant.

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) September 18, 2024

Israel’s military strength is often attributed to its advanced technological capabilities and highly-skilled armed forces. However, despite this reputation, Israel remains heavily reliant on foreign military aid, particularly from the US, to sustain its military operations over the long term. The dependence is largely due to the limitations of Israel’s relatively small economy, its industrial base and its workforce capacity.

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With a population of around nine million and a GDP of roughly $500 billion, Israel has built a strong defence sector that produces high-end equipment like drones, missile defence systems (such as the Iron Dome) and armoured vehicles like the Merkava tank. However, the industrial base of the apartheid state, although sophisticated, does not have the capacity to produce the full range of advanced military hardware required for extended military conflicts on multiple fronts.

Complex and high-cost equipment, such as advanced fighter jets, long-range missile systems and naval vessels, require a substantial technological infrastructure, skilled labour and investment.

Israel’s economy cannot support this on its own.

The workforce limitations constrain further Israel’s ability to achieve complete military self-sufficiency. Around 2.7 per cent of Israel’s population is directly involved in the military sector, including both active-duty personnel and those employed in the defence industry. Given the relatively small size of Israel’s workforce, attempting to scale up production to meet all of its defence needs would involve repurposing labour from other crucial sectors, such as healthcare, agriculture and technology. This would not only create economic imbalances, but could also lead to severe strains on the country’s overall economy.

Israel’s strategic dependence on foreign aid, particularly from the US, is its Achilles heel. The US provides Israel with approximately $3.8 billion in military aid annually. This gives Israel access to advanced technology and weaponry, such as F-35 fighters and sophisticated missile systems, which would be nearly impossible to develop domestically without a drastic overhaul of Israel’s industrial and economic priorities. The relationship with America allows Israel to maintain a strategic edge in the region. Foreign military aid is not just convenient, but also essential for its national security.

It is precisely because Israel receives such extensive support from its Western allies that it can allocate its domestic resources to niche areas like cybersecurity, missile defence and drone technology, rather than having to produce every type of military hardware. Without this support, Israel would face the same opportunity costs as other states — and thus be required to make the same trade-offs — making it less feasible to conduct complex operations like the recent walkie-talkie and pager attacks.

Germany’s arms export controversy exposes a chink in the foreign aid armour that the Zionist state has surrounded itself with. While relatively small and ineffectual on its own, the fact that Israel’s other previously ardent supporters have taken similar steps should be ringing alarm bells in Tel Aviv. The end may not be nigh, but it is no longer unthinkable.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.