The new Trump age: A turn in US-Turkiye relations?

Henry Kissinger in his book, “Diplomacy” says that ‘When statesmen want to gain time, they offer to talk.’ Now that Donald Trump is back in the White House, the US-Turkiye relationship comes to an impasse. Related with Kissinger’s statements, the question appears: Will Trump offer to talk with Erdogan around the diplomacy table? This bilateral relationship, shaped by shared strategic priorities and a long history of partnership and competition, has been reconceptualised again.

With Turkiye on a larger geopolitical footing, such as its entry into the   BRICS alliance, Trump’s administration might find new diplomatic avenues. Trade tariffs, a reassessment of military positions in northern Syria, as well as continued debates about NATO and other alliances, make the new Trump age one of both promise and threat.

Lower tariffs: An economic reinvention? 

In his first term, President Trump imposed tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminium, further heightening trade frictions, and leading to Turkiye’s exports to the United States decreasing by nearly 20% in 2018-19. 

OPINION: America’s collapse begins from within: Trump’s victory delayed America’s fall

Yet, recent comments by the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, show that Ankara hopes the new US administration will ease economic tensions. To drop Turkish tariffs would be an early nudge toward Trump’s foreign policy and could revitalise a trade relationship worth close to $25 billion a year.

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the US is Turkiye’s second-largest export market, after Germany. Lower tariffs would benefit key Turkish industries like textiles, machinery and auto components, and would possibly increase Turkish exports to the US by 10% a year. 

To Trump, lowering tariffs could be a step back toward an “America First” approach focused on creating win-win agreements that help drive growth while soothing tensions with a NATO ally.

American soldiers in Northern Syria: a transitional phase? 

Turkiye’s lingering anxiety over US backing of Kurdish militias in northern Syria has made US-Turkiye relations volatile, and Ankara regards the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) as a PKK-style terrorist group.

In 2019, Trump announced an interim troop withdrawal from the area, enabling Turkiye to set up a “safe zone” in northern Syria. And, now, with Trump back home, there will be another troop withdrawal in play, one that may serve Turkiye’s security interests and boost bilateral ties. With some 900 US troops in northern Syria, stability there and particularly against Daesh are critical to its future. Yet, a further withdrawal would reduce US influence and give Turkiye more control over the border.

This would lessen US-Turkiye tension on one front, but it would change the dynamics of the Middle East, changing US alliance with Kurds, and potentially increasing Turkish regional influence.

NATO allegiances: Recalling vows amid new friendships

Turkiye’s NATO allegiance remains a key component of its defence architecture and an indispensable connecting link to the West.

Yet, Turkiye’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defence system has complicated its relationship with the alliance, with the United States imposing sanctions and pulling it out of the   F-35 fighter jet programme.  Trump’s previous approach to the problem left no stone unturned, and his new term promises an opportunity to more diplomatically tackle Turkiye’s defence requirements, including, perhaps, allowing Turkiye back into the F-35 program under certain circumstances.

OPINION: Harris was Trumped by the price of eggs and milk

Relatedly, a better defence pact could strengthen NATO’s southern edge and confront shared security risks, particularly as Turkiye dominates the region. Although the S-400 is still an obstacle, changing US policy would also increase Turkiye’s participation in NATO and bring strategic benefits to both sides.

BRICS membership: Turkiye’s global diversification

In a sign of its continued commitment to international diversification, Turkiye recently expressed its interest in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). While still a NATO member, Turkiye’s eventual accession to BRICS indicates its increasing shift towards a multipolar foreign policy. With a GDP of more than $900 billion and a strategic presence in Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Turkiye’s accession to BRICS would boost the organisations financial and strategic leverage. Turkiye’s interest in BRICS parallels the rise of multipolarisation globally, as nations seek to avoid the West-led alliances. Although joining BRICS would not negate Turkiye’s NATO commitments, it adds a new tangent to Ankara’s foreign policy and betrays a desire to keep East and West at one another’s throats. For the Trump administration, Turkiye’s BRICS ambitions could signal the need to reinforce alliances with diplomacy and co-operation lest a valuable NATO country slide into non-Western circles.

The road to be – Poised for new partnership

President Trump’s previous relationship with Erdogan suggests that there is room for intense personal diplomacy. The two leaders have one thing in common: a pragmatic stance that could bring new cooperation – particularly on trade and in military matters. A reconfigured US-Turkiye partnership could also serve as an example for other NATO members seeking a geopolitical role outside the West, where Western alliances would be supplemented by new alliances in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Challenges remain, of course. Also, Trump’s “America First” strategy may have come at the expense of Turkiye’s desire for greater foreign policy autonomy and diversification. The bottom line is that Trump’s new administration opens up a door for reimagined US-Turkiye relations in which trade, security and diplomacy are of equal interest. In the face of geopolitical uncertainties, Turkiye finds itself torn between strengthening Western ties and moving towards a more multipolar foreign policy. For the United States, an economic and defence partnership with Turkiye could help maintain an alliance that is essential to stability in the Middle East, Europe and beyond. Whether these reforms will unite the two states or separate them depends on how willing each government is to listen to one another’s most pressing questions and adopt a thoughtful, mutually respectful strategy.

OPINION: Israel’s US-backed long war against the United Nations

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.