Sectarian demographics are reshuffled in the new Damascus

The first Friday prayers held in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus after the collapse of the Bashar Al-Assad regime were attended by thousands, marking a symbolic transformation with immense religious and political significance. While the call to prayer and the majority Sunni worshippers were not barred under Assad, the event symbolised the restoration of Sunni dominance in a city that had become increasingly Shia, and was seen as one of four Arab capitals firmly under Iran’s sphere of influence. As a city, it has undergone decades of demographic reshuffling and sectarian social engineering under the Assad dynasty and its Iranian allies.

It was a week ago that Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani declared the end of the Assad government in his victory speech at the 1,300-year-old mosque, saying that “Syria is being purified.” Jolani also remarked: “This new triumph… marks a new chapter in the history of the region, a history fraught with dangers [that left] Syria as a playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, stirring corruption.”

Indicating an inclusive outlook for post-Assad Syria and ahead of the fall of Damascus, he told CNN that, “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.” This was reiterated by Syria’s interim Prime Minister Mohammad Al-Bashir, who has pledged to protect minority rights.

Uncertainty and apprehension persists

However, uncertainty and apprehension persists among Syria’s Shia minority regarding the fate of their revered religious sites, most notably the Sayyida Zainab shrine on the outskirts of Damascus. These concerns appear justified, as Al-Mayadeen reported on Wednesday that armed men attempted to enter the shrine “but were forced to remain in the courtyard and were banned from entering the Shrine where the tomb is located.”

Yet speaking to MEMO, Mohamed Raza Jaffer, who has been organising pilgrimage trips in Syria for the past 15 years, expressed optimism. Referring to reports that the interim government will adopt a free market model, he said, “The new government is taking better steps for the public in terms of reducing duty on cars and mobile phones.” He also affirmed that the shrines would remain safe and intact. “The situation of Shia shrines will also be protected, and they will invite tourism in the area from around the world.”

For years, the shrine dedicated to the granddaughter of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) was defended by Iranian-backed factions, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Afghan and Pakistani fighters recruited under the “shrine defenders” banner. The then-threat from Sunni extremist groups was used to justify both the militarisation of the area and its demographic transformation, with a noticeable influx of Shia residents replacing displaced Sunni communities.

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In March 2023, during a visit to Damascus, I experienced first-hand the almost surreal atmosphere surrounding the Sayyida Zainab district. Security was managed tightly by armed militias, whose presence, while imposing, lent a sense of order and safety, although now a distant memory. Foreign shrine defenders have since withdrawn, having been assured that the site would remain protected, while all Iranian workers stationed at the shrine and the city were evacuated before Damascus fell. The nearby market was adorned with religious banners and posters of Shia scholars and Axis of Resistance figures, scenes that will likely be deemed controversial, if not prohibited, under the new authorities in Syria.

Under the Assads — both Hafez and Bashar — Syria’s sectarian balance was reshaped meticulously with demographic changes starting in the 1980s. The state’s survival strategy hinged on bolstering Alawite and Shia influence in key regions, including the capital, while marginalising the Sunni majority. This was part of a broader strategy to safeguard “Useful Syria,” a term attributed to Bashar Al-Assad, encompassing a sectarian stronghold in key governorates.

These numbers reflect a deliberate influx of Shia residents

According to the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies (KFCRIS), “The period between [1970 – 2007] is considered the golden phase of conversion to Shiism in Syria.” By 2016, the Shia population in Damascus had increased more than tenfold, rising from 26,000 in 2011 to 350,000. These numbers reflect a deliberate influx of Shia residents, many of whom were relocated from other regions or were foreign fighters and their families.

Iranian-backed initiatives purchased vast amounts of real estate in Old Damascus, particularly near the Sayyida Zainab shrine. At the time, this was reported extensively in Arabic and international media, with some claims of forced sales and incentivised migration displacing Sunni residents.

Iranian cultural centres and Shia seminaries also proliferated throughout the country. In 2021, the pro-Israel US think-tank the Washington Institute noted that, “Up until the mid-1970s, Syria had no Shia seminaries, but it now has at least seventy.” The establishment of these institutions sought to embed Twelver Shia Islam into the fabric of the Sunni-majority country. Foreign Policy that same year stated that Iran had been encouraging Sunnis to convert to Shiism “or, at the very least, soften their attitudes toward their sectarian rivals.”

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The fall of Assad and the subsequent takeover of Damascus by HTS and other rebel groups has disrupted this dynamic and the potential to bring about a new wave of demographical upheaval in years to come. The Umayyad Mosque houses the shrine of John the Baptist (Prophet Yahya) and is believed by many Muslims to be the site of the prophesied return of Jesus (Prophet Isa). Yet the mosque also holds the maqam or station of Imam Zain Al-Abideen, the Prophet’s great-grandson, who prayed at the site during his captivity in Damascus after the tragedy of Karbala. Additionally, the mosque contains the maqam where the severed head of his father, Imam Hussein, was kept and displayed by the Umayyad caliph Yazid.

Whether these deeply revered and historically significant sites will remain intact and accessible under the governance of a more Salafi-influenced leadership, as opposed to the historically Sufi-inclined Sunni Islam of Damascus, remains uncertain. The preservation of these sites will likely be a critical litmus test for the inclusivity and cohesion pledged by the new authorities.

The ousting of Assad is a devastating blow to the Axis of Resistance

Aside from the sectarian implications and demographic fall-out, the ousting of Assad is a devastating blow to the Axis of Resistance. For over a decade, Syria was the linchpin of the resistance, serving as a conduit for weapons to Hezbollah and a stage for Iran’s projection of power.

Supporters of the previous government argue that its ability to maintain a stalemate with Israel over the occupied Golan Heights helped preserve Syria’s territorial integrity, even amid repeated violations of its sovereignty by the occupation state. In contrast, HTS’s control of Damascus has raised fears of further Israeli exploitation and land grabs. Thus far, the expanded Israeli occupation of Syrian territories has been met with no resistance, nor has the issue been addressed by the interim government; it’s an approach that would have been unthinkable under the previous status quo.

The demographic and sectarian reshuffling of Damascus over decades has left a deeply fractured city. Assad’s policies, bolstered by Iranian support, sought to entrench a Shia presence bolstering the so-called “Shia Crescent” and the Resistance Axis, but this marginalised Sunni communities. These dynamics have clearly been upended, albeit with lingering risks of renewed sectarian conflict.

In 2020, the Carnegie Middle East Centre observed that, “The end of hostilities is unlikely to have an appreciable effect on the regime’s redrawing of the capital city’s Sunni religious landscape. What remains to be seen is which side, the regime or the opposition, will succeed in harnessing this drastic change to the landscape.”

The question now is how the new leadership will leave its mark on the ancient capital; whether it will focus on consolidating its newfound power, mindful of its own foreign contingents among rebel forces, as well as the returning Syrian refugees who will play a key role in rebuilding and repopulating both the country and its capital.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.