Developments in Syria will require much more than toppling Assad

After 54 years of the Assad dynasty’s rule in Syria, the regime fell on 8 December after an opposition advance that lasted just 11 days. The Assad regime was infamous for its oppression, tyranny, executions, torture and killing its own people. We know that the opposition forces benefited from the decline of Hezbollah’s influence; Iran’s desire to calm things down with Trump due to return to the White House; Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine; NATO’s desire to distance Russia from its Syrian base on the Mediterranean; Turkiye’s desire to secure its southern borders; and Israel’s efforts to punish Assad for facilitating Iranian weapons getting to Hezbollah. However, there are other factors that have not yet been revealed in this swift and unexpected development and Assad’s flight to Moscow.

The new reality in Syria is important, as we see the liberation of an Arab nation from tyranny, which demonstrates that the democratic solution is always less costly for the people. If the Syrian regime had responded to the opposition peacefully 13 years ago, it would have been possible to avoid the destruction that has befallen Syria since 2011. Millions of people have been displaced unnecessarily, within the country and as refugees abroad. Foreign powers have interfered in their own interests, from the Gulf and elsewhere. Syria has been divided: 63 per cent of the land was controlled by the Assad regime; 26 per cent is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are predominantly Kurdish and supported by the US; and 11 per cent is controlled by the Free Syrian Army forces supported by Turkiye.

And, of course, millions of Syrians have been killed or wounded.

We have seen Arab soldiers who were used by the regime to suppress their people, abandoning the tyrant to save themselves and removing their uniforms in case someone tries to take revenge. Their officers will inevitably be held to account for their role in the oppression.

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The opposition leaders announced that Syria’s state institutions will continue to operate under the supervision of former Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali until they are handed over officially, and that such institutions will not be touched. Even shooting in the air in celebration has been prohibited, no doubt because Syria can’t afford to waste bullets, the replacement cost of which needs to be spent instead on benefits for the people; the opposition have taken on a fractured economy and society.

Syria’s economy has declined over the past 13 years, from a GDP of $59.1 billion in 2010 before the civil war, to less than $9bn last year according to World Bank data. Its international economic position has declined from 67th globally in 2010 to 153rd last year, despite it being ranked 57th in terms of population.

There is also a lot of poverty and unemployment, and the health and education sectors have declined considerably, as has the value of the Syrian pound, which makes imports very expensive. The country suffers from a chronic shortage in both goods and services, and tourism revenues have fallen due to the poor security situation in a country that has 193 kilometres of beaches on the Mediterranean coast. High inflation has damaged local purchasing power, and youth unemployment last year was 29.8 per cent for males and 52.6 per cent for females.

Foreign currency reserves are not enough to pay for one month of imports.

This means that meeting the daily needs of the population will be a major problem for the new rulers, as will the barely-covered divisions within the opposition factions, and between them and the Syrian Democratic Forces that control areas in the east of the country. There are fears that these will be exploited by the US and Israel to exhaust the efforts of the new rulers, and that Turkiye and the Gulf states will also try to further their own interests. The Gulf states in particular will not be happy with the success of the Syrian revolution, as they fear it may destabilise their own thrones. We can, therefore, expect to see the Arab countries with oppressive regimes continuing to distort the image of the new regime in Syria in order to dissuade their own people from rising up against oppression.

There are still concerns about the response of Iran, Hezbollah and some Iraqi factions towards the new regime in Syria, as well as Russia. Neither Moscow nor Tehran will want to lose their strategic presence on the Mediterranean Sea, especially in a country which shares borders with five countries: Turkiye, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel.

The US will not want to see a strong, stable, Arab state bordering Israel that could one day demand its right to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights or pose a threat to Israel’s security. The fact that the US backs the Syrian Democratic Forces, and could use them to destabilise the new regime, or at the very least keep it preoccupied so that it has no time to think or act against the occupation state, is likely to be a major influence on developments in “new” Syria. It is clear that developments in the country will require much more than toppling Assad.

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This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 8 December 2024

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.