Israel researcher warns of potential coup and unrest in Jordan

An Israeli researcher has warned of growing instability in Jordan, raising concerns of a coup with serious implications for the occupation state. Given Jordan’s long shared border with Israel, such an event could pose significant security challenges, suggests Middle East expert Pinhas Inbari of the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs.

According to Israel National News, Inbari said that, unlike pre-revolution Syria, Jordan lacks armed militias capable of forcing its leadership to flee. However, he notes the Jordanian public’s strong pro-Palestinian sentiment and the dominance of the Muslim Brotherhood as key destabilising factors for the kingdom.

While terrorist-inspired riots are not Jordan’s primary threat, Inbari warns that discontent among Bedouin and Palestinian groups, aligned with the Brotherhood, could spark widespread protests. These could mirror the uprisings seen in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, with “Syrian inspiration” fuelling unrest.

READ: Jordan condemns Israel plan to expand illegal settlements in Syria’s occupied Golan Heights

Israel’s primary concern, according to Inbari, is that a coup in Jordan might enable Islamist movements to seize weapons and turn them against the occupation state, significantly amplifying the threat compared to Hamas in Gaza. He stresses the importance of preserving Jordan’s Hashemite government to maintain regional stability and prevent chaos.

In a research piece published yesterday, entitled ‘Jordan on the Edge: Pressures from the War in Gaza and the Incoming Trump Administration’ the Quincy Institute observed that “Jordan’s leaders have long portrayed their kingdom as ‘on the edge of instability’ in order to encourage foreign governments to provide the funds needed to keep it solvent. That narrative was never inaccurate, it was merely deployed strategically to help the Hashemites stay in power.”

On Friday, Israel and Jordan held “secret talks” to coordinate on the situation in Syria, three Israeli officials told Axios. Jordan is also a key mediator between Tel Aviv and the Syrian rebel groups, including the Hayʼat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) that led the revolution that toppled the Syrian government of Bashar Al-Assad.