Although 14 years have passed since the Egyptian 25 January Revolution, it remains a nightmare for its opponents, haunting them and making their lives miserable, prompting them to erase it from national memory. In the process of erasure, they distort it and falsely blame all the Egyptian peoples’ crises on it, which goes against the Constitution, which still speaks of it with appreciation and reverence, and considers its anniversary an official holiday.
Even this national holiday marking the anniversary of the January Revolution has been taken by the regime’s media mouthpieces who consider it a holiday marking Police Day, not the January Revolution (again in violation of the Constitution and the law). As a reminder,25 January, 1952, was a heroic battle for the Egyptian police in Ismailia against the British occupation, which demanded that they surrender their weapons, but they refused and sacrificed 50 martyrs. This day became the annual Police Day, and the first demonstrations of the Egyptian revolution in 2011 were organised on that day as a protest against police abuses. Then, after the January revolution, this day became the anniversary of the start of the revolution.
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The distortion of January’s memory, which the Constitution honours, is being carried out by the highest authority, Al-Sisi, who has repeatedly accused the revolution of causing the crises that Egyptians are suffering from. He has also pledged more than once not to allow the revolution to happen again, although if it were not for this revolution, he would have remained hidden, unknown to anyone, and at most he could have been the governor of a border province.
This year’s January anniversary coincides with several important events, both internally and externally, which increases the regime’s fears. It comes after the victory of the Syrian revolution after a difficult 13-year labour, but it ultimately succeeded in overthrowing the Assad regime, its army, police, party, militias and regional supporters, and opened the doors of hope for its struggling Arab Spring revolution sisters who were hit by the blows of the counter-revolution, most notably the Egyptian revolution. The fall of Bashar’s regime, which is more powerful than Al-Sisi’s regime, sends a message that the fall of the Egyptian regime is also not impossible.
As for the second event, it is the end of the Gaza war, with the failure of the Israeli Occupation army and all its supporters to eliminate the Resistance, especially the Hamas movement, which represents an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood, the most prominent opponent of the Al-Sisi regime. The steadfastness of the Resistance in the battle despite the regional and international plots against it was an inspiration to all freedom fighters.
As for the third important matter, it is the escalating popular anger inside Egypt due to the increasing living crises, with rising prices, the decline in the value of the Egyptian pound, the intensification of the local and international debt crisis, etc.
A few days before the January anniversary, calls for change escalated, and they came in three forms, including calls for partial reform from parties inside Egypt, calls for peaceful political change also issued by forces inside and outside Egypt and, finally, a call for armed change declared by an Egyptian man in Damascus, who had his weapon in front of him on the table, and next to him were some masked men. Although I personally am against armed change, and it is unsuitable for the situation in Egypt, and although the Syrian authorities arrested the person who made the call (Ahmed Al-Mansour) and his companions, the state of panic still exists among the Egyptian regime and its arms. The regime is exploiting his call to intimidate the Egyptians, and to dissuade them from demanding change or even partial reform.
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In the face of the demands for change or even partial reform, the regime was keen to tighten its repressive grip to send the message that it does not fear these calls, and that it will firmly confront them. The Egyptian police launched a new campaign of arrests in many areas, arresting many who had been previously arrested. The police also recently arrested the wife of one of the detained journalists, and a media figure who interviewed here for a website. Although they released Nada Mougheeth, the wife of journalist, Ashraf Omar, on a large bail, they kept the media figure, Ahmed Serag, in pre-trial detention for conducting the interview. The authorities also referred publisher, Hisham Kassem, again for investigation on charges for which he had previously been tried and imprisoned.
Despite the repressive attempts, calls for change are still rising from within Egypt, where several political parties and forces have called for peaceful change to avoid the expected chaos that the entire country will pay the price for. The demands for change, so far, have included calling for holding real, fair, competitive presidential and parliamentary elections, under full judicial supervision and international human rights oversight, freeing the media from the grip of the security services, and releasing political detainees.
There are voices within the regime’s security calling for some relief in order to prolong the life of the regime. These calls are based on the experience of Mubarak, who allowed a small number of reforms which enabled him to rule for 30 years. However, other, more extreme and more influential voices believe that any relief, no matter how small, is enough to open the door to a popular explosion. This view is specifically adopted by the National Security Agency, which maintains a deep-seated vendetta against the January Revolution due to what it was subjected to after it. This opinion is the most acceptable to Al-Sisi, because he always acts based on his fears, but this opinion, which is currently leading to the policies of repression and extremism, will be the reason for the popular explosion. Such policies had preceded the January Revolution as well, although the repression before January was much less than what is happening now and, therefore, the explosion is coming sooner or later if these policies continue.
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This article appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 19 January, 2025
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.