Turkey’s big energy gamble in post-Assad Syria

Turkey has aspired to become regional energy hub and corridor for last two decades. The recent political upheaval that witnessed the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s government from the country has opened the door for Turkey to realise its old ambition with access to regional energy markets. 

On 30th July 2025 the Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced  “We will start exporting natural gas from Azerbaijan to Aleppo via Kilis,” a province in southernmost Türkiye near the Syrian border, starting from 2 August 2025.The singing of the Türkiye -Syria natural gas agreement is backed financially by Qatar, which is to help alleviate the electricity shortages of Syria. 

Qatar’s backing of Syria-Turkey engagement is more than just economic, it’s strategic. Qatar has a strategic opportunity to expand its influence in the global market by utilising the pipeline and routes to gain direct access to Europe. This silent move not only strengthens political ties with Türkiye but also counters Saudi Arabia and UAE backed energy projects, keeping Qatar influential without making loud moves. 

The Energy Minister of Türkiye Alparslan Bayraktar has announced that Türkiye  has designed a project in which Türkiye will  be exporting 900 megawatts of electricity following the technical completions to support 1.6 million Syrian households. Moreover, Türkiye will start providing Syria with 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from 2 August to enhance infrastructure and invest in renewable energy sectors

Turkey occupies a more pivotal and less volatile geographical position as it is at the intersection of an energy abundant region and the energy dependent European continent with its pre-existing pipeline network serving as formidable instrument for regional influence. Through the operation of significant pipelines such as TANAP (which facilitates the transportation of Azerbaijani gas to Europe), Turk Stream (which transmits Russian gas), and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil conduits, Turkey has effectively established itself as an essential energy conduit. By reinstating and expanding connections such as the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline into northern Syria, or by integrating with Gulf gas supply routes via Syrian territory, Turkey could enhance its dominion over the energy dynamics of the Middle East. 

The Arab monarchies are also backing their political gestures and ties with Syria with billions. Saudi Arabia alone has signed 47 deals which worth $6.4 billion with the targets of creating 200,000 jobs through different projects. In addition on 6 August 2025, Syria also secured an additional $14 billion in the infrastructure domain, in which $4 billion is for a new or expanded Damascus airport with Qatar’s UCC Holding and $2 billion for a Damascus subway system with the UAE’s National Investment Corporation. 

In the wake of these developments, there is a strong urge in Arab monarchies for the diversification of energy supplies and routes. Therefore, Middle Eastern, Caspian region and European energy markets could easily be connected via Syria, Anatolian Peninsula and Turkish Straits. 

Several European countries have also given support for Syria’s new interim government and visited Damascus to restore diplomatic ties. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of Germany traveled to Damascus in January 2025, and announced an initial €50 million grant and promised a further €300 million later for stabilisation. Likewise, to Germany, Italy, Norway and France have all begun returning to Damascus signaling the shift in relations.

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The Israel-Gaza conflict and repeated attacks by Houthi militants on ships in Red Sea, and the Israel-Iran and US-Iran conflict have made tradition oil and gas supply routes of Persian Gulf and Red Sea less reliable. The missiles and drone strikes have resulted in rerouting and delays in the trade of the Red Sea Route; container ship transits have plummeted over 65 per cent, and the Port of Eilat has seen a 90 per cent drop in traffic. The Strait of Hormuz, a choke-point through which roughly 20 million barrels per day, about 20 per cent of global oil consumption, and one-fifth of global LNG trade pass through, is too crowded as well. 

The conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, and Israel-Gaza have profoundly affected the global energy markets, and Europe is feeling the heat. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it choked a major supply route of gas and oil to Europe resulting in high prices and pushing millions into poverty. 

Just a few years ago, Turkey and Syria were on opposite sides of a war. Today, they are on opposite ends of a gas pipeline. Having achieved strategic gains in Syria vis-à-vis Russia and Iran, Turkey wants to leverage its geographical location and that of Syria to join the league of dominant regional energy players. So far, in contradiction to the rules of geopolitics, changing regional geo-economics have helped Ankara to gain the support of regional energy players like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. It is because Turkey is at the juncture that connects three continents. Being at the crossroads of Eurasia, it is finally in a position to become an energy hub through which Europe can access Central Asian and Middle Eastern oil and gas reserves to reduce its dependence on Russia and Ukraine for energy import. 

In conclusion, it’s very clear that Türkiye is no longer at the edge of the Middle East, it has quietly moved to its center stage. This new regional geo-economics and energy interests also partially clarify why Arab monarchies and European liberal governments are on the same page in supporting Ahmed al-Shara’s interim government. Türkiye is now understanding its geographical importance and using it for the future. However, Turkey’s reliance on fragile states like; Syria could also backfire in the same manner as it has happened for Russia and Iran. This can also create a sense of resentment among the Gulf giants and spark the tensions in the region if these new supply routes do not serve their national interests. It can further aggravate the geopolitical rivalry among region states. It is a test of Türkiye’s diplomacy to navigate through these challenges if it wants to become a regional energy hub and a major energy player in the future. 

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