The objective of the Iran war is not regime change but complete dismantling of the Iranian state

We may be witnessing the final round of a great power contest unfolding in the Middle East. At its center lies Iran, now under sustained assault by the United States and Israel in what appears to be a determined effort to cripple its military capabilities, dismantle the state and neutralise it as a regional power.

The objective is to defang Iran and render it toothless in a region where it has long positioned itself as a principal challenger to Israeli dominance.

The US-Israel attack on Iran is not an isolated event – it was years in the making, as four-star general Wesley Clark revealed in 2007, citing a post-9/11 Pentagon plan to “take down” seven countries, starting with Iraq and ending with Iran.

The unravelling started by the slow dismantling of the Axis of Resistance. The first major blow came in Syria. After more than a decade of civil war that devastated the country, the Iran-backed government of Bashar al-Assad ultimately collapsed under pressure from rebel forces, depriving Tehran of the crucial geographic and logistical backbone of its regional strategy.

Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza have both been weakened by sustained military pressure and the assassinations of senior leaders, including Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. In the last ten days since the war began, Israel has continued its heavy bombardment in Lebanon, displacing hundreds of thousands and killing around 300 people. The objective seems to be to permanently eliminate Hezbollah, reshape the country’s political landscape, and sever the connection between the group and its support base. 

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The Houthis of Yemen also seem wary of joining the war as they have also suffered heavy leadership losses as a result of Israeli airstrikes last August. Even Iraq once a key pillar of Iranian strategy, has become increasingly uncertain terrain for Iranian influence as U.S. strikes target its militias and escalate regional instability.

The assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force and the principal architect of Tehran’s regional strategy was a decisive point. Since then, a sustained campaign of covert operations and targeted killings has steadily eroded Iran’s military leadership and undermined its nuclear and strategic capabilities.

Now the campaign has entered a far more overt phase.

In the past week alone, US and Israeli forces have launched extensive strikes across Iran. According to US Central Command, roughly 2,000 targets have been hit so far, including missile launchers, naval assets, air defenses, and facilities tied to Iran’s nuclear and military programs.

More than 1,300 people have reportedly been killed in Iran, including civilians and children, while the conflict has spread across Lebanon and other parts of the region. Oil supply routes have been disrupted, air travel across the Middle East has been thrown into chaos, and the war’s economic shockwaves are already being felt globally.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has declared that “there will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.” He has even suggested that the U.S. should be involved in choosing Iran’s next leader, someone compliant enough to serve Israeli and American interests, just as it backed figures like Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela after Maduro’s ouster.

In response, Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the third leader of the Islamic Republic. Trump must remember that Iran is no Venezuela. While many Iranians are weary of their regime’s repression and economic failures, they would not welcome a foreign invader sowing anarchy and instability under the guise of liberation. The answer is a resounding no.

READ: Iran says Israeli strike in Beirut killed four of its diplomats

Trump, who rose to power promising to end America’s forever wars, has now plunged the nation into another conflict without clear objectives. One can’t help but wonder: Why? The influence of Israeli mega-donors looms large. Miriam Adelson, the Israeli-American businesswoman, contributed over $100 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign (though Trump has claimed she offered $250 million for future runs). Trump owes his Israeli mega donors and he has no choice but to comply. You can’t turn your back to the people you are financially dependent on. Trump has proven reliable in the past by shifting the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel’s annexation of the disputed Golan Heights from Syria, and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. This war feels like the next chapter in advancing pro-Israel agendas.

Under the banner of liberty, freedom, and regime change, the ulterior motives of neoconservatives and pro-Israel hawks appear to be destabilising and destroying Iran, rendering it unable to defend itself.

The broader aim is a reengineered Middle East primed for expanded Israeli influence, as Trump has claimed a defeated Iran is the key to a “totally different Middle East.”

And so the war wages on. Iran appears determined to endure and deter rather than negotiate, particularly after years of broken nuclear negotiations that have eroded any remaining trust between Tehran and Washington.

With global oil supply chains disrupted, common people already beset with the cost-of-living crisis will suffer more from rising inflation and soaring fuel prices. 

The time has come for the international community, particularly countries of the Global South, to push aggressively for diplomatic intervention. 

The fire spreading across the Middle East is already burning fiercely. If it continues unchecked, the consequences may prove too catastrophic to contemplate.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.