It's spring time in Palestine

“The Palestine spring has begun and we are with what the people say and demand.” These were the words of President Mahmoud Abbas as he addressed an Arab League meeting on Wednesday. He conceded that the demands of protesters across the West Bank are legitimate, but can he deliver? Mr Abbas knows very well that he who does not possess something cannot give it away. This is his dilemma.

Conditions in the West Bank today are a far cry from the idyllic picture painted by New York Times columnist Thomas L Friedman three years ago. “Things are truly getting better in the West Bank, thanks to a combination of Fayyadism, improved Palestinian security and a lifting of checkpoints by Israel,” he wrote from Ramallah on 4 August 2009. Citing IMF projections, Friedman asserted that “Fayyadism” is “the most exciting new idea in Arab governance ever.”

All this rings a familiar bell. Tunisia was also celebrated as an economic success story; then Muhammad Bouazizi set himself on fire in December 2010. There were similar desperate acts of self-immolation in the West Bank this week, so what has gone so dreadfully wrong?

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) offers a revealing answer. In a report due to be discussed later this month it describes the impact of Israel’s occupation on Palestine’s agricultural sector as “devastating”.

Today, food insecurity in the West Bank affects 66 per cent of the population; many can ill afford to buy vegetables. Consumers are called upon to offset the mounting costs of agriculture. When farmers have difficulties gaining access to their land; when Israeli settlers burn their crops with impunity; and when delays at check points cause produce to spoil, someone has to pay.

The protests across the West Bank are showing no signs of letting up. From Hebron in the south to Jenin in the north, people are turning out to send a message to the PA; their patience is running out.

If the cost of food is high, the cost of medical care is dangerously prohibitive. Even without a comprehensive blockade, as in the Gaza Strip, there are acute shortages of medicine. The PA, it is reported, now owes Jordan $45 million for the treatment of cancer patients.

As it stands, the PA is attempting to do the impossible. On the one hand it cannot influence economic policies in Israel to which its economy is tied; and on the other, it cannot meet the basic needs of its people. The systemic problems have now reached the terminal stage.

Under the Paris Protocol signed between the PA and Israel in 1994, a ‘customs union’ was formed. While it purported, on paper, to remove economic borders, in practice it allowed Israel to preserve the relationship as it was, with the Palestinian economy linked to Israel’s and thus totally dependent on the occupier.

Back then, the PA was unable to provide employment for its people and the Protocol seemed attractive because it allowed for free movement of trade, workers and goods in both directions. That never happened. Israel exploited its sole control over the borders and the collection of import taxes to blackmail and punish the PA. At present, the value of Israeli trade to the Palestinian territories far outstrips the value of Palestinian products sold in Israel. Worse still, the PA is not allowed to trade freely with other countries, including the EU.

What finally pushed Palestinians over the edge was the recent hike in petrol prices in Israel. That led to a similar rise in the West Bank. Impoverished Palestinians could not see the logic or justice in this since there is no comparison between the average income of an Israeli citizen and a Palestinian.

But there were signs of a deeper undercurrent of discontent. In July, the PA was forced to crush two days of protests in Ramallah against a visit by Shaul Mofaz to the city. Several protesters had their limbs broken by plain clothes operatives who infiltrated their ranks. This latest eruption has continued longer and is much more widespread. Bread and butter issues, it seems, will ultimately determine the PA’s fate.

To most observers, the eventuality of Palestine’s spring was never in doubt. It was not a case of if, but when. For internal political reasons, much of the popular anger is directed at Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. Demonstrators burnt effigies of him in Hebron this week. And, like in Tunisia and Egypt, they cried, “let us live with dignity”.

Fayyad has become the fall guy for the PA’s failure. His rivals from within Fatah, of which he is not a member, have seized the opportunity to undermine his presidential aspirations. It is ironic that while they don’t want to live with him, they don’t believe they can survive without him. It’s no secret that both Abbas and Fatah view Fayyad as the banking wizard who can fetch international aid. More tellingly, he is the darling of the Americans and Israelis.

When similar protests erupted in Jordan a few weeks ago, King Abdullah II intervened personally to undo the price rises. Mahmoud Abbas is in no such position to do the same without financial backing. On his part, Fayyad has pleaded for more time as he awaits US Congress approval of a $200 million bail-out package.

If this is the outcome of “the most exciting new idea in Arab governance ever”, as Tom Friedman claimed, no one should blame the Palestinians for rejecting it. There is nothing dignified about living on hand-outs. For sure, Palestine’s spring will require enormous sacrifice. Whether the Palestinian people’s legitimate demands are met will not be decided in Ramallah but in Tel Aviv. Sadly, Israeli governments, of all persuasions, view everything through the prism of security; hence they may opt for a violent crackdown. Although the Israelis may dislike Abbas and his cronies, they will always rescue them because they hate the alternative even more.