Sticks are on the menu, as EU frustration with Israel mounts

Over the last few days, there has been talk of potential EU sanctions in response to Israeli policies that block progress towards a two-state solution. Most of this is based on an internal EU document initially reported on, then published in its entirety, by Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which lists a series of steps that the EU could take to pressure Israel.

EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini has described this “working document” as just a “hypothesis”, adding that ministers meeting Monday for the EU Foreign Affairs Council focused on “getting a positive engagement with Israel and the Palestinians so as to restart the peace process.” Nothing about “isolating or sanctioning anyone”, she emphasised.

Back in February, I met with senior EU officials working on the Middle East Peace Process and all the talk was of “incentives”. The single-minded focus on the peace process and Secretary of State John Kerry’s initiative meant that, in the words of one official to me at the time: “there is no menu of sticks.” Yet this is precisely what has now been commissioned and drawn up, even if only in ‘draft’ form. So what changed in the last nine months?

Most significantly, of course, the Kerry-led negotiations collapsed, with Israel receiving the lion’s share of the blame after Netanyahu’s government reneged on a planned prisoner release and continued with settlement construction. The EU would also have been irritated by the Israeli authorities’ response to the formation of a Palestinian unity government that was welcomed – cautiously, but welcomed nonetheless – by Brussels.

Then came the summer war, and, while the EU expressed support for Israel’s right to defend itself, most notably in the Foreign Affairs Council statement of 22 July, there was also clear unhappiness about the scale of the assault on the Gaza Strip – see, for example, French FM Laurent Fabius’ anger about Israel’s “slaughter of civilians.”

To make matters worse, meanwhile, the destruction in Gaza has been followed by a series of announcements regarding settlement construction: as highlighted by European FMs yesterday, this has included building plans in Givat Hamatos, Ramat Shlomo, Har Homa and Ramot.

Overall, the basic dynamics are still the same as they were at the start of the year. While there are those in Brussels, encouraged by human rights advocates and solidarity activists, who are urging a tougher approach, there are also many in the EU who want close or even closer ties with Israel, and who would like to remove the remaining obstacles to such a relationship.

The difference, however, is that rather than these obstacles being removed, they are actually growing, as Netanyahu’s government pursues a policy of obstructionism and rejectionism, driven by senior ministers and a ruling coalition that includes open opponents of a two-state solution.

In January, the EU’s ambassador to Israel Lars Faaborg-Andersen told reporters that there would be a “price to pay” if “negotiations falter”, adding: “If Israel were to go down the road of continued settlement expansion and were there not to be any result in the current talks, I am afraid that what will transpire is a situation where Israel finds itself increasingly isolated.”

This will not by any means be a quick process, but without an improbable change of direction in Israel, this is what is unfolding.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.