Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood: which poses more of a threat to the Arabs?

Following the meeting of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman with Khaled Meshaal, the Head of the Political Bureau of Hamas, there has been a storm of criticism from people loyal to the regime in Egypt. They believe that such a meeting does not serve the purposes of the Egyptian policy of seeking to destroy the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots.

Some of the critics have been so angry that they accuse the Saudi government of letting Egypt down in its “war against terrorism”. Supporters of the Saudi rapprochement with Hamas, however, see it as a step in the right direction to mobilise all Sunni forces in the region and unite them against Iran’s expansion project. This is especially important, they say, in the wake of the nuclear accord between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the US, Britain, France, Russia, China plus Germany), which has intensified anxieties in the region vis-a-vis the spread of Iranian influence and the prospects of international support for Iran’s allies in the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

The disagreement between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is no longer going on behind closed doors. The widening gap in their respective political vision over regional issues is quite clear, not least in their policies regarding the Syrian crisis, the war in Yemen, Libya, the Palestinian question and Iraq.

Earlier differences were lived with and accepted, albeit often grudgingly. However, in the wake of recent developments and potential repercussions of the Iran nuclear deal it seems that settling these differences will be essential; it will be neither bearable nor acceptable to postpone such settlement any longer.

At the root of the current disagreement between Egypt and Saudi Arabia is the position of each with regards to Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. The government in Cairo views the Brotherhood as the greatest threat and it is working to eradicate the movement completely. In contrast, it seems that the Egyptians do not pay much heed to the danger posed by the Iranian project.

Tension has grown between Cairo and Riyadh as a result of what seems to be a growing concurrence of Egypt’s vision on issues like Syria with that of the Iranians and the Russians. Tehran and Moscow insist that Bashar Al-Assad should remain in power and should be engaged with, for example. In addition, there have been some unilateral moves by Egypt with regards to the situation in Yemen, much to the displeasure of the Saudis who believe that such moves contravene their own vision of the solution to the crisis and the best approach to arrest Iranian expansion spearheaded by the Houthis and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Iranians are also obsessed with the Muslim Brotherhood. The government in Tehran is simply unable to overcome that obsession and the sort of choices that come with it.

As for the Saudis, their priorities are completely different. Iran’s ambitions are believed to pose an existential threat, confrontation with which cannot be postponed. They believe that it is unacceptable to engage on any other front before curbing the growth of Iranian influence, which wears the turban of sectarianism that has so far seen the fall of three major Arab capitals into the hands of Iran or its proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

Egypt does not have a sectarian or doctrinal problem because the overwhelming majority of its citizens are Sunni Muslims. In contrast, the Shia presence in Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states represents a demographic time bomb that threatens a bleak future if Iran’s ambitions are not curbed, its expansion not arrested and its provocation of domestic crises in these states not ended.

The threat to all of this is Daesh (ISIS), which has been able to deal several blows to the Egyptian government in the Sinai Peninsula and whose terrorism has reached the centre of Cairo. In the meantime, Daesh has begun to pose a real danger to Saudi Arabian territory in the most direct way. The group has also been expanding in Iraq, Syria and Libya.

Riyadh is ever more anxious that the current Egyptian regime does not appreciate the considerable threat posed by Iran and Daesh, despite their major Shia-Sunni doctrinal differences. This explains why Riyadh has been reaching out to both Turkey and Qatar as a foundation for the creation of a genuine Sunni coalition that may later welcome Egypt once Cairo has reconsidered its priorities and dealt with the Muslim Brotherhood in a different way.

Saudi Arabia, then, clearly believes that Iran is a bigger threat to the Arabs than the Muslim Brotherhood, the exact opposite of the government in Cairo, which sees the movement as an existential threat. The new Saudi leadership, indeed, views the Brotherhood and its various offshoots in the Arab world as important assets in the equation to stand up to the Iranians; put simply, the Egyptian government doesn’t.

The Saudis view with great interest some of the successful Arab experiments in containing the ambitions of the Muslim Brotherhood and integrating the movement into the political system, such as in Morocco and Tunisia. The North African experiences should provide lessons to the Egyptians, whose attempt to eradicate the Brotherhood, the Saudis believe, is futile; it is simply impossible, they acknowledge, to eradicate a movement that was the biggest political faction with the strongest roots in Egyptian society. The Brotherhood continues to this very day to enjoy the support of millions of Egyptians and others around the world. The government in Riyadh believes that the battle waged by the regime in Egypt will only lead to further tension and the deepening of the ongoing crisis in the region, which, say the Saudis, needs the Egyptians to be playing a major role; Egypt is threatened as much as any other country by Iran and its proxies — as well as Daesh — and Cairo should address its priorities accordingly. The current confrontational approach of the regime in Egypt, say the Saudis, is a gift to Daesh within the country and across the region.

It must be said, though, that the government in Riyadh does not like the Muslim Brotherhood. However, it finds itself compelled to deal with all the cards it can mobilise in order to stand up to the biggest danger ever, emanating from Iran. Does the regime in Egypt realise the changes taking place across the Middle East? Or will it continue to be obsessed with its conflict with the Muslim Brotherhood? We may see some surprise moves in the near future.

Translated from Arabi21, 20 July, 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.