Iraq’s Al-Abadi confronts Iranian Suleimani

With the emergence of blatant insults to all Arab Shia powers in Iraq, Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, participated in the political meeting of the Shia National Alliance led by Foreign Minister Ibrahim Al-Jafari. The meeting was also attended by the president of the Dawa Party and former prime minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, and the leader of the Supreme Council, Ammar Al-Hakim, in addition to the leader of the Badr Organisation, Hadi Al-Amiri and, of course, Prime Minister Haydar Al-Abadi.

Suleimani’s influence on the leaders of these political blocs is strong regardless of whether he attends their meeting or not. Yet, in light of the special circumstances affecting Iraq and the political project in the country, the delinquency of Prime Minister Abadi has led to a series of demonstrations and false promises of reform that began with a blow to the pillars of power in the state, including the dismissal of Nouri Al-Maliki as prime minister of the republic and the subsequent launch of a commission of inquiry after Mosul fell to Daesh.

There is now a certain reservation about mentioning Al-Maliki’s name in order to avoid framing him as one of the influential or powerful figures in Iraq simply because the fate of Mosul has had a negative impact on the country as a whole and there is now a fear that the same fate will befall Baghdad. As such, a request for an investigation was filed on behalf of the Iraqi Council of Representatives with the judiciary in order to shed further light on the current political reality. No immunity or privacy will be given to any of the names or figures disclosed therein. All of these incidents were meant to show Iran that its project and goals for Iraq are threatened, especially after Al-Maliki visited Tehran as soon as he was dismissed from his post. Al-Abadi has been known to flip-flop in his governance and has been defined by his inability to face or handle any internal crises in Iraq as of late. Perhaps he is well aware of the reality of the Dawa Party and that the current governmental structure in Iraq was put in place through Iranian sponsorship. The time has come to withdraw a little from the current structure.

From here, then, Suleimani’s attendance at the Shia National Alliance put him in a very difficult position because it brought him face to face with the individual directly responsible for the chaos: Nouri Al-Maliki. General Suleimani is the man who Iran considers to be the executor of all of its neo-imperial projects abroad. He is Iran’s Arab director, without a doubt, but was his attendance at the conference fruitful? And did Al-Maliki succeed in humbling Abadi after the ex-prime minister himself nominated him as his successor, after everyone decided unanimously against allowing Maliki to run for a third term? What is the role of the rest of the powers under this alliance?

The first messages that were shared by General Suleimani indicated that Tehran was not pleased with the status quo and Abadi’s decision to dismiss Al-Maliki from his post. Suleimani also mentioned that Iran was dissatisfied with the referral of individuals linked with the fall of Mosul to the judiciary. It is alleged that he claimed: “Iran opposes placing Al-Maliki on trial because it will be the closest thing to a Shia trial, which has been proven to fail. There are now parties who would proudly and willingly protest against this type of judicial approach.” Because this meeting was Iranian in essence and by virtue of its decision-making, its goal was to reprimand all of those who want to threaten Al-Maliki’s standing. More importantly, Suleimani’s remarks to everyone present were ultimately warnings about Iran’s wrath and, as such, they were directed at Abadi who was thus placed in a very difficult situation and had to respond to Suleimani as the Prime Minister of Iraq. Thus, it became important for Abadi to respond in a way that reflected the decisions and national and personal desires that were promised to the Iraqi people.

Contrary to what was broadcast boldly by various media and news outlets, Abadi’s objection to Suleimani’s requests — though considered by many to be a bold move — was not the main reason for the latter’s departure during the course of the meeting as he made the following claim: “The real reason I came here was to put an end to this farce and way in which the crisis in Iraq is being handled. Iran cannot wait any longer and cannot hold off on any actions until the Iraqi people themselves take to the streets in protest at the current government and Iran’s place within it. After today, we will not allow for the efforts that Iran has made over the course of the last thirteen years to be destroyed.” Suleimani ended his remarks by telling Abadi and company to consider themselves warned.

Prime Minister Abadi now has two options after this direct confrontation with General Suleimani. The first is to be honest with the Iraqi people who took to the streets and are indifferent over who rules Iraq, whether Sunni or Shia, because they are relying on their rulers to steer clear of corruption. This expectation holds true for all current government personnel, whether they are civilian or military. Moreover, with the increasing number of individuals who have been imprisoned for more than a decade, in addition to the fact that all religious institutions are being avoided when it comes to attempting to bring an end to this crisis, citizens are pushing for the establishment of a more technocratic government in the hope that they will be able to rebuild Iraq’s civil society. This will be made possible by bringing an end to the internal strife among Shia parties within the National Alliance, which together with the right reforms must work to prevent the benefits that Suleimani would like to guarantee Nouri Al-Maliki. The fact that Ali Al-Sistani from Najaf supports Al-Abadi and stands against anything that could directly benefit Al-Maliki simultaneously is what makes this the stronger option of the two.

The second option would be for Abadi to submit to Iran’s threats while also freezing the decisions that pertain to Al-Maliki specifically. Moreover, Abadi has the option of enabling militias that are loyal to Iran within the National Alliance and this would be done in an effort to bring a decisive end to the popular demonstrations as quickly as possible and prevent them from spreading even further. Secretary-General of the National Alliance Hadi Al-Amiri and the leader of the higher council, Ammar Al-Hakim, have both warned the Iraqi people of the dangers of continuing their protests. This option will undoubtedly lead to Iraqi bloodshed and will transform the Iraqi government to an entity that will no longer be able to represent either Iraq’s Shia population or its Sunnis.

The path is very clear for Haidar Al-Abadi but it is incredibly difficult. If he wants to be a true Iraqi leader for his country and his people and lead them to safety and away from corruption, sectarian strife and an Iranian occupation, he must not stray from the path of justice, especially since all of his people took the streets and demanded that he follow this path. If he does follow it he will find that the Iraqi people will stand beside him as he confronts corruption and the iron grip of Iranian control in the country. Will Abadi do this? Will he avoid another embarrassing scenario? Or will he choose to place Qassem Suleimani in confrontation with the entire Iraqi people? This is how he can help combat the crisis of corruption in Iraq.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.