The Battle of Aleppo is Putin’s gift to Trump

Those who serve as guarantors in the Syrian crisis, as it relates to the Geneva agreement and the beginning of the Vienna peace talks, are the same powers that have a hand in the situation on the ground and are ready to start sharing power in the division of the Syrian pie. They include the US and Europe on one side, the Gulf States and the United Nations.

Furthermore, the Turkish, Iranian and Russian defence ministers met this week to discuss the roadmap post-Aleppo and cancel a plan for a transitional operation for a presidential election that had been agreed previously. The survival of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is guaranteed, as are the survival of Russian, Iranian and Turkish interests. The Gulf States were excluded from the discussions; seeing that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries enjoy a strong relationship with Turkey, it seems that the latter has replaced the former in the negotiations by joining Russia in its malicious strategy.

The Turkish government has developed its strategy by aligning with the Russian and Iranian role in Syria; it sees itself in the winning camp and has ignored its promises to the Gulf States. Moreover, Sunni Turkey has given a new cover to Russia, which has been seen as protecting Shia interests in the Battle of Aleppo, one of the largest Sunni-Arab cities. What, then, of Moscow after Aleppo? What of Turkey after the agreement with the Russians regarding the Kurds in Syria? What of Iran after its victory in Aleppo? What will the GCC countries, Europe and the US do now, post-Aleppo?

The lack of US participation in the meeting between Russia, Iran and Turkey keeps the Americans off the field in Syria. This is in line with the Obama administration’s wish to stay out of the Syrian war and primes everyone for the entry of the Trump administration. “Putin and Trump” could characterise the upcoming phase. Russian President Vladimir Putin has succeeded in portraying himself as the most important partner for Donald Trump on the basis of co-existence and a mutual love for the art of deal making.

Iran has decided that jumping aboard with the Russians is the best and fastest route to the White House and has positioned itself as an indispensible partner for Moscow on the ground in Syria. Further afield, Egypt has seen an economic opportunity arise from the Putin-Trump relationship, one that will allow it to foster its trade links with China. Turkey, on the other hand, saw that it was beneficial to emulate the Russian position in Aleppo. The government in Ankara has sent a letter to reassure Donald Trump of its position.

The US is content with the tired smile of Secretary of State John Kerry as he shakes hands with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. The Obama administration is on its way out and Aleppo is haunting it. The departing US president has contributed to the humanitarian crisis in Syria through his failure to engage. He has given Russia a licence to assert its influence in the Middle East. There is also the radical Iranian presence even before the dissolution of the UN resolutions that have warned Tehran about exercising its military power beyond its borders.

We must remember that the re-evaluation of the situation came as a by-product of the nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran, which Barack Obama pursued at the expense of US values. The US president had previously drawn a red line by warning Damascus not to use chemical weapons and by asking the Syrian president to leave his post; neither warning was backed by action when they were ignored.

In stark contrast, President-elect Donald Trump has been exercising his presidential powers even before taking office. It was for Trump’s sake that Putin demonstrated his strength in the transitional period between old and new US administrations. The Russian leader escalated his military operations in Aleppo and strengthened his alliances with Iran and Turkey; while the former has served as Moscow’s military partner on the ground, the latter has only joined the fray in Syria to deal with Russia.

Putin wanted to give Trump a present, made and beautifully packaged in Syria, under the false pretext of destroying Daesh and Al-Nusra Front along with any other terrorist organisation. Russia pursued the Battle of Aleppo so that the new US president wouldn’t have to; it wanted to wipe Aleppo clean before Trump entered the White House.

Vladimir Putin is now poised to make Donald Trump one of his closest friends. He is paving the way for a major agreement after the re-entry of Russia into the international arena through the Syrian gate.

Russia’s victories in Syria come amongst protests against its self-revival in the Middle East. No matter how much he works with Turkey and Egypt, Putin will always be the Russian president who made an ally out of Iran, especially in Syria. Is the intention really to eradicate radical Islam? Putin is against the rise of Sunni Islam and it is clear that he is combatting radical Sunni Islam by partnering with radical Shia Islam through his ally Iran, the only Shia Islamic republic.

This is how Putin has revived the Russian presence in the Middle East; through the Sunni-Shia sectarian gate. Many US administrations have done this before him. Russia’s return to the region is not a result of its role in Syria, but the opposite. Its investment in the region prompts many questions, especially when it comes to revenge.

The Russia-Iran relationship will be under heavy scrutiny having been proven to be a genuine alliance. This is a clear message to the GCC, whose members believe that Moscow’s position towards them is as clear as its relationship with Iran. For this reason, the UAE and Russia, for example, have fostered a secondary relationship, which disregards either party’s position on Syria. The main reason for this is the clear-cut stance that Russia has taken in the Yemen conflict, one that avoids any interference.

What type of relationship will emerge between Moscow and Tehran after Aleppo? The strategic alliance will remain secure; however, there will be some aspects that the parties will need to revise. Russia is keen to bring an end to its military involvement in the Syrian war, whereas Iran would like to expand its own military presence. Russia’s interests lie in strengthening the Assad regime’s army whereas Iran would like to replicate the revolutionary guard model in Syria and Iraq. These are deep-rooted differences between the two parties.

Yet, this does not mean that the alliance between Russia and Iran has now weakened. When Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Qassem Soleimani declares a victory in Syria despite Russian embarrassment, the latter will not protest against his claims. Russia knows that Iran will free Syria and Iraq from Daesh and that it will work to actualise the “Persian crescent” project, which will in turn serve Russian and US interests.

The Turkish priority is different because it is concerned with protecting the authority of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey has closed the corridors that once allowed Gulf funds and weapons to go through to Syria, following the closure of the Iraqi corridor by a joint US-Iranian effort. Ankara has placed its highest priorities in the Russian basket. It has also forsaken its previous position regarding Bashar Al-Assad and has now joined a camp that is dedicated to ensuring his legitimacy and survival.

Russia has gained a lot from Turkey due to the agreement between Putin and Erdogan. It may be apparent that Erdogan let go of his greater project (the Muslim Brotherhood) in the Middle East and Asia. His new orientation promotes an image of a secular Syria, which had previously been rejected from Turkey’s standpoint. This change is remarkable. The Russia-Iran-Turkey triumvirate discussed the preservation of Syria’s unity at a time when Iran is working to strengthen channels with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Turkey is suppressing the Kurdish population and semi-autonomous region in Syria, even while the establishment of a Kurdish state in Iraq is almost inevitable. Syria’s Kurdish territories remain a grey area. Russia is reformulating the roadmap and preparing the ground for a new partnership with the US.

Translated from Alhayat, 23 December, 2016

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.