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Hezbollah’s warnings should be taken seriously, and so should Iran’s

July 16, 2019 at 6:42 pm

The recent warnings by Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah that Iran will target Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the event of a comprehensive military confrontation in the context of the deterrence that Iran is trying to impose in its face off with the US, coincide with the official position put forward by Tehran. That is based on reminding the US and those who stand with it that there will be an enormous cost to everyone if the war that neither the US nor Iran want actually breaks out. In previous years, the Hezbollah leader’s statements have gained credibility among opponents; Israel, for example, takes them seriously.

Nasrallah and the Iranians are trying to influence the public debate taking place in the US by swinging the balance in favour of those opposed to the war by supplying them with ammunition to use in the discussions. Such opposition is found in the US House of Representatives, which is trying to strip President Trump of the ability to declare war against Iran. In truth, it is impossible to talk about a US consensus on military action against Iran; none of the attempts by the hawks in Washington have convinced the general public or rallied ordinary Americans behind their ruthless assertions that the US-Iranian relationship is a zero-sum game.

It looks as if the efforts by the “moderate” Arab axis and Israel to deter Nasrallah are not very successful. Claims that other Lebanese groups are opposed to involving their country in Iran’s battle with the US, and that Hezbollah does not have the right to take Lebanon into a regional confrontation, do not match the reality of the policies in Israel’s northern neighbour. Over the past few decades, Hezbollah has adopted a foreign policy that is different to that of the Lebanese government. This independent policy is popular, given that Hezbollah defeated Israel in the July 2006 war and political paralysis has gripped successive Lebanese governments.

US to Hezbollah: Blockade will ease if you do not join Iran in future attacks

Contrary to the claims of Hezbollah’s opponents, who believe that the movement’s statements are empty threats, it actually means what it says. Its strategic association with Iran’s regional project drives the movement to overstep the state’s logic. Any attempt within Lebanon to restrict Hezbollah will fail, because the movement represents a large section of Lebanese society and the true balance of power there is tipped in Hezbollah’s favour. What the movement’s opponents in the region do not know is that Tehran has invested in the resistance infrastructure for decades. Hence, the axis has a clear strategy, unlike the “moderate” axis, which recently became involved in major contradictions and its own weakening; the term “moderate” has become a euphemism for dependence on the US.

I believe that Hassan Nasrallah’s remarks should be taken seriously, as should Iran’s warnings that the entire region could become embroiled if war breaks out. Iran will have no option but to strike back if America attacks it; Tehran will have the right to retaliate against the interests of the US and its allies in the region.

Theoretically, Iran cannot face the US alone without utilising its proxies and allies in order to increase the cost to the US and its supporters. Most importantly in my opinion is not the position of some Gulf States or Israel, but rather what is happening in the US itself after President Donald Trump has lost the American public regarding the war on Iran. Hassan Nasrallah’s warnings partly target US opinion because he knows full well that Trump cannot engage in a major war in the Middle East in election year. Re-election is Trump’s biggest concern, as his record in office so far is devoid of any foreign policy achievements.

READ: US sanctions three Hezbollah leaders, including two members of Lebanon’s Parliament

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Sharq on 15 July 2019

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.