Turkiye-Syria rapprochement: how Erdogan the dove is trying to correct his mistakes as a hawk

“… For the sake of peace for the people, the country and the region, finally step down.” That was Turkiye’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, back in November 2011 calling on Syrian President, Bashar Al-Assad, to resign. Then, the Syrian bloodshed had just started, while Damascus responded with brutal force as the civilian protesters calling for regime change spread all over the country as part of what became known the “Arab Spring”.

The situation changed quickly and dramatically. Barely a few days into the public outpouring of anger, the peace demonstrations turned uglier and the country was engulfed in a bloodbath of civil war. The regime refused to budge, while the opposition became more organised and urged help from the outside world, including Syria’s neighbours like Turkiye and others. 13 years on, and the Syrian mess is still going on, albeit in different twists and turns, before morphing into a state of little peace, with small wars here and there. Turkiye, among other immediate Syrian neighbours, led the way to help the opposition, not only by calling on Assad to go but also by providing material support including arms, special forces and foreign fighters to help the opposition.

Over the years, the geopolitical dynamics changed and more foreign involvement became the driving force for the fighting in Syria. Turkiye, again, was the most active among those wanting regime change in Syria.

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Today, however, Mr. Erdogan, as President with almost absolute power in Ankara, is seeing things differently. Literally, he is transforming himself from the hawk he once was to a new dove he wants to be, calling for peace and restoration of relations with Syria which he severed year ago. Opportunistic as always, he wants not only to normalise ties with Syria but also to have, as soon as possible, a face-to-face meeting with the very man he very often called a dictator who had lost any legitimacy—President Assad.

On 7 July, President Erdogan said he would invite his Syrian counterpart to visit at any time. He went on to say that he wants to “restore Turkiye-Syria relations to the same level as in the past.” Both Russia and Iraq have been attempting to help the Ankara-Damascus rapprochement after years of animosities.  In other comments Mr. Erdogan made to reporters while returning from Berlin, he said that President Putin and Iraqi Prime Minister, Al Sudani, have suggested that the meeting take place in Turkiye or Iraq. However, the Turkish leader said such an encounter could happen “anywhere”.  A sense of hurry is encoded in his words. Mr. Erdogan is sending the strongest indication yet that he is determined to bring about a new era of relations between the two strategic neighbours, in a rather unstable and violent region.

Behind this u-turn by Mr. Erdogan, stand several reasons. First and foremost, the realisation of the simple fact, despite coming over a decade late, that Ankara could benefit much more from a peaceful and stable Syria than it does from Syria at war. While Prime Minister in 2011, Mr. Erdogan considered that toppling the Syrian regime as a short-term successful strategy with a long-term goal of not only annexing parts of northern Syria, but also dominating the entire region. The man espouses certain Ottoman Empire aspirations whereby, under his leadership, Turkiye becomes the hegemonic power it once was.

To do that, he turned Turkiye into the preferred open route for foreign fighters, weapons and even terrorists into Syria, without actually considering the fact that such actions could harm his country too, as he would, as President, discover. More recently, the clashes between Syrian refugees and certain communities, particularly in the Turkish region of Kayseri, reminded him of such potential threats to stability in Turkiye. Many Turkish people want over a million Syrian refugees to leave and go back to their country. Without the cooperation of a peaceful and stable Syria, most refugees will not be able to return home.

In the earlier years of the Syrian civil war, Mr. Erdogan also believed that he could end the Kurdish threat coming from Kurdistan Workers’ Party usually operating from the border area between the two countries. Between 2011 and 2016, Turkish forces went into northern Syria several times, attempting to crush the PKK and its allies. But the PKK is no longer alone, as it is leading a broad coalition of Syrian opposition groups, Syria Democratic Forces, and enjoying the protection of the United States—a Turkiye NATO ally!  This makes any big Turkish military operation in the area unwelcomed by Washington and prone to failure.

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After all those years, Mr. Erdogan has realised that only stable and peaceful Syria can help him with the Kurdish issue and peaceful and stable Syria means accepting Bashar Al-Assad as he is, and listening to his concerns. Assad is not going anywhere soon.

While Damascus never closed the door on rapprochement with Ankara, it has always made it a condition that any meeting between the two leaders can only happen after Ankara pulls out its troops from Syrian soil. Mr. Assad has, consistently, referred to the presence of Turkish troops inside northern Syria as illegal occupation, which is what it is. President Assad might alter his position slightly by accepting the meeting, in principle, as long as ending the presence of Turkish forces is on top of the agenda. His legitimacy and power hangs, in part, on ending the presence of all foreign troops illegally stationed on Syrian land. This includes Turkish, as well as a small American contingent on the Iraqi-Syrian border guarding Syrian oil fields, while stealing the oil.

Any rapprochement between the two countries benefits both sides. Economically, Syria could benefit from Turkish investments in rebuilding, while the latter benefits from the profits and jobs created at a time when unemployment in Turkiye is around 10 per cent, while in Syria it is close to 15 per cent.

Security-wise, only cooperation between Damascus and Ankara could bring about stability to the border region. Keeping the PKK and its allies in check then becomes a mutual task both sides could help each other on.

If the meeting between the two Presidents takes place, it is likely to usher in a new era in neighbourly relations between two important countries in an increasingly volatile part of the world. One can, indeed, change his home but not his neighbour and both Syria and Turkiye will be next to each other, whether their leaders meet or not.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.