Sudan army rejects Geneva peace talks, faces charge of being the ‘obstacle to peace’

The Sudan government’s choice not to send a delegation to today’s Geneva peace talks is either a bold courageous move or a short-sighted decision. It remains to be seen whether Sudan will withstand the international pressure that undoubtedly will accuse the army of being an “obstacle to peace”.

Sudan’s refusal to attend the talks stems from the rejection of two of its three main demands. The first request, granted by the US negotiators, was to recognise the army, led by General Abdul Fatah Al-Burhan, as the legitimate government of Sudan. The second, which was not agreed, was to use, as a starting point, the agreement signed by the army and RSF on 11 May 2023 in Jeddah. The third objection, again dismissed by the negotiators, was to prevent the UAE from attending the peace talks as a by-stander. Sudan accuses the Emirates of directly fueling the conflict by supporting the RSF militarily and threatens to raise a case against the UAE at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

However, it seems the final straw, which has not been publicly announced, was the push by the RSF on the morning of Saturday 10 August to amass forces on all four sides to capture the capital of North Darfur, El Fasher. The attempt failed; but had Sudan lost control of its remaining territory in Darfur, the Sudan government would have been forced to accept a “new reality”.  That would mean that the government could have to concede control of an area the size of mainland Spain throughout the talks and negotiations. It may even have meant that Sudan would have to accept Darfur as a “breakaway” region.

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Speaking outside their headquarters in El Fasher, a joint force of army, police and intelligence forces declared complete victory over the RSF forces. The victory has emboldened the army to secure notable victories in the recent month as well as pushing back incursions in the centre of the country. However, the condition of Darfur is slowly deteriorating. In June, the international Crisis Group wrote: “Civilians are trapped in terrible conditions, [now, exacerbated by the rain] with nowhere to go for safety or food. If the conflict continues to escalate, and particularly if the RSF overruns the city, many fear large-scale massacres along ethnic lines. The US has levied sanctions on RSF commanders, and threatened stronger penalties to prevent an all-out RSF assault, but thus far these measures have proven insufficient to halt the spiral.”

The army’s official announcement was followed by a video statement by the head of the RSF, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo. In a video, soldiers mocked the announcement and shouted “Batha”, accusing the RSF leader of having been raised from the dead. A reference to the commonly held belief that Dagalo was either seriously injured or died sometime ago. His heavily edited video appearance is widely believed to be fabricated or AI generated. Despite no concrete evidence to support that claim and despite a well publicised tour of Ethiopia, Uganda and South Sudan by Dagalo, the unsubstantiated claims continue unabated.

Hours before the US talks, Al-Burhan stressed: “Military operations will not cease until the last militia withdraws from the cities and villages they have violated and colonised.” He added: “There can be no peace while the rebel militia occupies our homes.”

US Special Envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, confirmed on X that the Sudanese army will not attend the Geneva talks. However, he emphasised ongoing US efforts to end the conflict and noted the RSF’s commitment to negotiations.

Meanwhile, the African Union hosted consultations on Saturday with various Sudanese opposition parties and civil society groups. In a second series of meetings, the first of which involved pro-army political groups, the AU said the consultation was meant to prepare “the convening of an Inter-Sudanese Political Dialogue.”

The hope is the dialogue can take place after an initial ceasefire deal to discuss the potential shape of a political transition. The talks at the AU headquarters included representatives of the Taqadum Coalition headed by former Sudanese Prime Minister, Abdullah Hamdok, SPLM-North (a non-aligned armed group that controls significant territory), the Democratic Unionist Party, Ba’ath Party and the Popular Congress Party, which was once led by the late Hassan Al-Turabi.

Whatever the outcome of the Geneva talks, for the moment the Sudanese army appears to be confident of its ability to withstand the expected international pressure, in the hope that the alliance of military forces and popular support remains on its side. If not, the decision not to attend the talks may backfire and eventually haunt its leadership.

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