Tunisia: The elections ended before they even began

Bravo to those who planned and supervised the preparations for the Tunisian presidential elections that will be held on 6 October, who were finally able to overcome all the possibilities that were possible, and which the opposition thought of to prevent the success of Kais Saied.

The first bricks of this path have been laid since 25 July, 2021, when the President overthrew the government and parliament, and seized all the authority and powers in his hands. A main goal was set, i.e., to eliminate the political elite that dominated the scene during the past phase, and work has been done in this regard over the past three years. Accordingly, files were opened for almost everyone and main and sub-lists were drawn up and, as time passed, the authorities proceeded to select the most important and dangerous, only to find themselves accused and implicated in a case and referred to the judiciary.

READ: Tunisia: potential rivals sentenced and barred from presidential election

This work started when the authorities decided to prevent the rapprochement between the various opposition parties to form a single front that transcends ideological differences and postpones the political conflicts between them until after they “get rid of” President Saied. This happened under the “case of conspiracy against the internal and external security of the state”, which is a controversial case that the authorities are still refraining from revealing, despite passing the legal deadlines related to the detention of the individuals accused. In the same context, they cracked down on the Ennahda movement and paralysed its activities, starting with the arrest of its leaders, and extending to directing a number of serious charges and cases against it that will keep the movement away from the scene for a long time.

When the election date approached, a number of amendments were introduced to the electoral law. These amendments would reduce the number of those who expressed their intention to run, which almost reached 100. Despite this, some insisted on entering the competition, so they resorted to using the B3 criminal records request, which proves that the candidate has a clean legal record and would allow them to exercise his electoral right. Some candidates were unable to obtain their B3, despite how easy it normally is to obtain. In doing so, the remaining influential figures were dropped from the race, such as Mondher Zenaidi, who is supported by a large number of lawmakers and who, had he remained in the race, would have won the votes of many citizens, including the Islamists, and therefore posed a threat to Kais Saied.

It is worth noting, in the current context, that the Election Observation Mission, with its current composition and policies, almost created a consensus within the political class around questioning its role, as it was criticised by 17 human rights organisations and six parties. In a joint statement, these parties considered that the “climate of intimidation and harassment of opponents and journalists by using the judiciary and the Election Authority to serve the interests of the authorities and the lack of equal opportunities does not provide guarantees that the elections will be free, transparent and fair”.

In the final count, and so that the outgoing President would not be left to run alone, only two out of a total of 17 candidates were allowed, namely Ayachi Zammel, who currently leads the Azemoun movement, and Zouhair Al-Maghzaoui, Secretary-General of the People’s Movement, a nationalist movement with a Nasserist approach. The first tried to express his criticism of President Saied cautiously, in order to avoid exclusion, while the second candidate is considered a supporter of the 25 July path and a fierce defender of the most prominent political decisions announced by President Saied. Although the People’s Movement has modified some of its positions towards the presidency due to internal differences, it continued to consider itself among the most prominent political parties that have allied with part of the radical left to provide the necessary support to the President. Even when Al-Maghzaoui announced his candidacy for the presidency, he stressed that this does not conflict with what Kais Saied did!

Based on this scene, we can say that the door has become completely open for a second term for the outgoing President, as it is unlikely that political circles will support Al-Maghzaoui due to their major differences with the People’s Movement, especially Ennahda Movement’s supporters who remained between more than one candidate before closing the door in everyone’s face. The nationalists, in general, insist on accusing Rached Ghannouchi and the Ennahda leadership of being behind the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi and Chokri Belaid and, when the conflict between two parties is over blood, it is impossible to talk about the possibility of changing positions for tactical considerations.

Thus, the only one benefitting from all that is happening is President Saied. This is thanks to those who have long planned to organise elections without significant political entities and one free of real stakes, with the aim of extending the current rule by five years, regardless of the future of democracy and the conflict of interests

OPINION: Tunisia elections 2024: Either Kais Saied or no one

This article appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 12 August, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.