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Will Israel use a nuclear weapon in its attack on Iran?

October 15, 2024 at 4:01 pm

An elderly Iranian man holds an anti-Israeli placard in Tehran, Iran, on 15 October, 2024 [Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images]

Perhaps the most pressing question on the eve of the US presidential election on 5 November is: Who will be the first to strike the other: Israel or Iran?

The twenty days that separate us from the election of the new US president are an extremely dangerous period of time, because a president whose term is about to end becomes, according to the popular American expression, a lame duck, unable to make decisions related to war and peace, out of fear that it would lead to unfavourable repercussions for the country or their party’s candidate, causing their party to lose the grand prize: the presidency of the country for at least four years.

In addition, there are political, strategic and even personal circumstances and challenges facing the presidents in Israel and Iran, which may force them to make exceptional and extremely dangerous decisions during the twenty days that separate the US from the transfer of power and leadership from one president to another, who may be the opposite of the current president in terms of their approaches, positions and several issues. This would lead to dangerous changes and transformation within the US and in the world, as well.

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Amidst these facts and possibilities, one can foresee a likely but not definitive answer to the most pressing question of the moment: Who will strike first, Israel or Iran? Another question may also arise from this pressing question: Isn’t it possible for Israel and Iran to abandon the “option” of exchanging attacks before 5 November? Benjamin Netanyahu is the most controversial player among the leaders holding the reins of power in the Middle East. Therefore, in order to anticipate his reactions and decisions, it is necessary to be aware of the following facts, data and circumstances. Netanyahu is influenced by three main motives in his life and political behaviour.

First, is to remain in power as the head of his coalition government, which includes two extremist racist Zionists, Bezalel Smotrich (Minister of Finance) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (Minister of National Security), who reject any ceasefire or settlement with the Palestinians and their resistance factions. They have threatened to resign, which would lead to the fall of the government if Netanyahu chooses the path of settlement. With the fall of the government, Netanyahu’s political life would most likely end and he would be taken to court to be prosecuted for having previously committed criminal acts that warrant severe penalties.

Second, is his firm observance to biblical verses (delusions) such as “Every place where you set your foot will be yours” or ” Unto thy seed have I given this land, from the river of Egypt unto the great river, the River Euphrates”, which are verses that order those who believe in them to work to achieve them.

Third, is his firm belief that Iran poses an existential threat to the Zionist state, after it became a “nuclear threshold state” capable of manufacturing a nuclear weapon in a short period of time, making Israel and even the US unable to defeat or contain it.

Netanyahu’s ambition to establish himself as the greatest king in the history of Israel for his success in ridding it of an existential threat that threatens it with extinction, prompts him to seize the opportunity of American Jews having extensive influence and impact during the presidential elections, to launch a war on Iran before 5 November, i.e., when President Biden is unable or unwilling to prevent him from waging it.

The Israeli website, Walla, quoted a senior American official after the long telephone conversation between Biden and Netanyahu last Wednesday, saying that the differences between the US and Israel regarding the response to Iran have come to a pass, and it seems that Washington advised Israel not to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil and gas facilities, so as not to cause a global crisis resulting from the rise in their prices.

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Republican candidate, Donald Trump, had called on Netanyahu, during the latter’s genocidal war against Hamas and the Palestinian people, to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities because it supports Hamas and its allies.

Last week, the Israeli Security Cabinet postponed the vote on the date of the expected attack on Iran, and media outlets quoted a security source saying that it seems that the vote will be postponed to a date closer to the attack. Other outlets hinted at the possibility of Netanyahu launching the war before 5 November, referring to the statement by Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, saying, “Israel’s response to the Iranian attack will be deadly, precise and, above all, surprising, and the Iranians will not understand what happened and how, until they see the results.” His statement was interpreted as implying a threat to use a nuclear weapon.

What about Iran? How will it respond to the expected Israeli attack? Perhaps this can be predicted once we take into account the following facts and data.

First, it is clear from the positions and statements made by senior Iranian officials that Tehran was and still is ready and prepared to respond to any Israeli attack in line with the equation of proportionality and necessity, with its attack exceeding the magnitude of the Israeli attack in type and destructiveness.

The Iranian leadership believes that Tel Aviv has realised, especially after Iran’s shocking response to it at the beginning of this month, that Tehran has the ability to respond with precision and painfully. This may prompt Israel to stop responding to Iran, or to postpone its response until US participation becomes possible and guaranteed.

Tehran realises that every attack or aggression by Tel Aviv is actually carried out based on a joint decision with Washington, even if the implementation is, in most cases, done by Israel.

We are now noticing the increasing call in the media close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards for the need to change Iran’s nuclear doctrine, due to two challenges: Israel openly working to achieve what it calls the “new order for the Middle East” in order to ensure its domination over the region. The second is the possibility of Israel using a nuclear weapon in its conflict with Iran, which requires Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon because the only thing that would convince the nine nuclear states and Israel not to use it is their knowledge that Iran also possesses it.

While Tehran believes that Tel Aviv will not launch its attack before 5 November, it has not completely ruled out the possibility and has prepared itself to respond to every attack.

In light of these facts, circumstances, and challenges: Will Israel be the first to attack? Or will Iran pre-empt it with a strike that would thwart it?

There is no definitive answer under these fragile circumstances, but I think Netanyahu will act, considering the following possibilities:

If he is guaranteed that the Biden administration will remain silence about his attack while providing Israel with a large number of heavy bombs that penetrate Iranian fortifications, he will attack before 5 November.

If he is unable to obtain the aforementioned political approval and military equipment from Biden, he may be content, for the time being, with launching an attack that does not target Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities, but rather focuses on extremely important military and economic sites.

If Netanyahu notices that opinion polls suggest that his ally, Donald Trump, will win, he will not hesitate to launch an attack on Iran using a tactical nuclear bomb, whether it can disrupt the Iranian nuclear programme or only cause severe damage to the military and economic infrastructure.

It seems that Netanyahu and Israel must wait for the surprises that Iran has prepared for them.

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This article appeared in Arabic in Al Quds on 13 October, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.