Countries are treating the US elections like corporate employees treat the fiscal year. The closer the end of this year approaches, the slower decisions are made and the process of transferring important issues and projects to the new year begins, with new budgets and a new plan. This is one of the problems of modern administration, which gives bureaucracy priority over the interests of the country and its people. This is why the world, especially the Arab world, started, months ago, the waiting game to see who the new master of the White House will be. This phase is known for its procrastination.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is stalling and procrastinating, hoping that his preferred candidate, President Donald Trump, will return to power again. Iran is stalling and delaying all its responses and strategic steps towards Israel until after the US elections, which perhaps explains the restrained reactions from Iran towards Israel and vice versa.
Therefore, Israel is not expected to engage in or accept any deal to end the war in Gaza in the next few weeks before the new American president is named, even if Hamas agrees to all its conditions, as the conditions currently proposed are conditions proposed to be rejected and not to resolve the issue. As for the Arab countries and their position on the aggression on Gaza, most of these countries seek to freeze their position while awaiting the compass of actions and reactions from the new American leader.
As for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which is in fact an American-Russian conflict, the Russian president himself stated a few days ago that the future of his country’s relationship with the US depends on the outcome of the American elections. Vladimir Putin is not hiding his desire for Trump to return to the White House, as he considers the latter’s statements about his intention to end the war in Ukraine as sincere.
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China is also waiting to see the outcome of the American elections, not only to determine its next steps towards sensitive issues such as Taiwan or its strategic expansion in the world, but also in terms of trade and political relations with the US. The Al-Aqsa Flood in Gaza has succeeded in draining a significant part of the American capabilities and distracting them from increasing Chinese influence around the world.
The problem with these postponed issues is that they have increasingly violent and atrocious bills, most notably the bill of the fierce Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and the repercussions of this aggression in the West Bank and Lebanon. Every second that passes means new lives are lost. However, this cost is not being considered by the new master of the White House or by all the parties waiting for this round of the presidential race to be decided.
The most prominent question here is, can the American elections really transform and change American policies in various places around the world? The answer that everyone knows, is that the American elections are basically a change in faces and not a change in strategic policies, with a small margin of change depending on whether the Republican and Democratic party’s candidate comes to power. Why, then, are all these issues postponed until after the winner is announced in Washington? The easiest and fastest answer is because the US itself wants this.
Conspiracy theories aside, American diplomacy seems hesitant, slow and indecisive on most issues months before the US elections, because it knows that a new team may come to the administration, which means it wants to adapt to its priorities and way of working, especially with the change of the Democratic candidate, incumbent President Joe Biden, to Kamala Harris, meaning that a new individual will enter the White House in any case.
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This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 27 October 2024.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.