Iraq and civil war

The ball of fire in the Middle East is rolling very quickly. It is no longer limited to Gaza, eliminating Hamas, releasing the “hostages” from the grip of the Resistance, or even pushing Hamas out of the Strip. The details of Security Council Resolution 1701 and its articles, which relate to setting the borders between Lebanon and the Occupation state, are no longer acceptable to the far-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Today, talk has become about Israeli conditions, and agreeing to them would mean, among other things, that Hezbollah would surrender, that Lebanon’s airspace be infiltrated by the Occupation’s aircraft, restructuring the political process in this country that is small in size, but great in its influence in the region, due to its ethnic, racial and sectarian diversity, making it a powder keg that could ignite the region if it ignites (God forbid!).

Iraq is on a powder keg, as well. Neither the wounds of the recent past have healed, nor have the daily lives of the authoritarian ruling parties and their rule based on a legacy of revenge subsided. Between these two matters, the fireball has rolled into the country, which has become without a fortress, without permission. At a time, it was the home of the greatest geopolitical change that the region would witness later, which began from the moment its regime decided to take a risk and invade a neighbouring Arab country in 1990, to unravel a knot in a region that did not need such a decisive, fatal moment.

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Following the American invasion in 2003, the ruling Iraqi parties failed to produce a political process capable of overcoming the mistakes of the past. Instead, they, who had come in on the back of an American tank, were one of the biggest reasons for pushing the country into a civil war, the scars of which are still evident. These parties contributed to being another nail hammered into the body of a country that suffered from the authoritarianism of its regimes, as the country entered into a tunnel of authoritarian parties, their sectarianism and their collaboration with foreign powers. It is as if they had come to destroy what remained of the country.

Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani, who was chosen last Thursday as the Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, after the position was vacant for a year, admits that they are “contractors of demolition, not construction”. This is an admission from a figure who, from the first moment, participated in the political process that was laid out by the US after its invasion, tailored to the sizes of parties and figures who spent their lives outside Iraq, sitting in the embraces of Iran, or Assad senior’s regime in Damascus. Moreover, these parties and figures were a tool in the hands of the region’s regimes, most notably Iran, and the US of course, before other regional and international regimes entered to create arms for themselves within the political process in Iraq. This led to Iraq becoming one of the most failed countries in the region. All we need to do to confirm this is to read what is written annually by international organisations, as Iraq has maintained its leading position for years, as the most corrupt country, according to data from Transparency International.

The political forces that rose on the Occupier’s tank did not succeed in establishing themselves in Iraq, nor in addressing the problems of the past, which they claimed to be a victim of the regime. Rather, they embarked on a process of systematically destroying the country and took the country into one of its bleakest stages, represented by the civil war that the country was forced into at the hands of those parties from 2006-2009. These parties remained alien to Iraq and its people, even though they have been in existence for more than 20 years now.

The changes in the region cast heavy shadows on Iraq and its future. It seems that Iraq will be on the list of targets for Israel and the US, in order to get rid of the armed militias that consider themselves part of the axis of resistance, led by Iran. Intelligence circles believe these groups will respond to the Israeli strike with a similar strike, but that it will be launched from Iraq. This means if that happens, Iraq will also be the scene of an Israeli response, which could drag the country into a new chaos, which some people seem to be anticipating and preparing for. This chaos could lead to a civil war if Iran’s arms weaken and the Iraqi government is forced (willingly or unwillingly) to deal with these factions as outlaws, thus beginning another phase of armed confrontation in Iraq, in which the government and militias may not remain alone in the arena. Other parties that have waited for this moment may also enter the arena.

The former Secretary-General of the Iraqi Islamic Party, Mohsen Abdul Hamid, mentions in his recently published memoir titled, “The Last Word”, that after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, there were two projects, Shia and Kurdish, and there was no Sunni project that could confront them. This was more than 20 years ago, but now there are Sunni political parties that have economic and media arms and international and regional relations. It is true that today they are considered nothing more than a complement to the political scene, but these parties also have their own ambitions, and they too are waiting for a decisive moment to bare their teeth, especially since the signs of demanding a region for the Sunnis are emerging publicly and are turning into demands that are not only popular demands, but also partisan demands.

Hence, it can be said that the recipe for civil war is now ready, after 20 years of repression, killing, intimidation, exclusion, arrests, tyranny, monopolisation of power, etc, the stage has become ready, and the players are fully prepared to embark on the next stage. The gateway to this next stage may be civil war, and the reshaping of Iraqi reality, not based on the requirements of national interest, but rather solely on the requirements of the American-Israeli interests. Will Iraq manage to avoid the option of a new civil war?

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This article was first published in Arabic in Al Araby on 5 November, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.