Iran’s defiance: US and Israeli efforts to halt its ambitions

Donald Trump’s election will not pose an existential threat to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Any military action against Tehran would have direct repercussions with Russia, currently an ally of Iran, particularly concerning the future of Ukraine. Trump’s main challenge will be to regain the political initiative lost in recent years and ensure that US interests dictate the course of action for its allies, especially Israel.

If Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin were to reach an understanding over the future of Ukraine, the current relationship between Moscow and Tehran would likely take a backseat. However, if Trump opts to participate in a strike against Iran, US-Russia relations would worsen. As a result, Tehran would likely accelerate its nuclear programme for security reasons, leading to further escalation with Israel and drawing the US into a conflict. Ultimately, this would delay any prospects for peace in Gaza and Lebanon.

Since the beginning of the escalation between Israel and Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not managed to dissuade Tehran from military responses on its territory, mainly because the US has halted its participation given the current geopolitical circumstances. This trend will continue with Trump since a change in the balance of power favouring Israel will impact its interests with Russia. If Netanyahu succeeds in gaining a Trump-backed attack against Iran, it will not end, but delay the nuclear threat. Kamal Kharazi, president of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, pointed out that all it would take would be a fatwa from the Supreme Leader to change the nuclear doctrine.

To resolve the ongoing crises in Lebanon and Gaza, de-escalating tensions between Iran and Israel is essential. If Trump seeks to broker a lasting deal, he must recognise that further conflict could weaken US influence on the global stage, potentially strengthening China and Russia. Trump must take control of the political narrative on Iran rather than allow Netanyahu to set the US agenda. Trump has urged Netanyahu to end the Gaza conflict by January—not as a threat, but as an opportunity for Israel to break free from the cycle of violence it currently faces.

Conflicting interests: The tenuous ties between Iran, Russia and Israel

The relationship between Moscow and Tehran is driven more by necessity than mutual trust. Both nations face international sanctions and are compelled to navigate their shared isolation. For Russia, Iran provides military equipment in Ukraine by supplying drones and other materials, which reduces the pressure on the Russian army. Iran benefits as Russia acts as a deterrent towards the US while it cooperates on intelligence surveillance, cybersecurity and other areas in the Iranian energy sector.

Both Russia and Iran are participants in key international organisations, including BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Eurasian Economic Union. Additionally, they are on the verge of signing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which aims to deepen security and economic ties while addressing the impact of sanctions.

Russia may, however, reconsider the value of its partnership with Iran if it sees a potential political advantage in Ukraine. Ultimately, US policy under Trump will be a key factor. Should Trump decide on military action against Iran, it would likely solidify the Iran-Russia alliance while reducing the chances of a negotiated settlement over Ukraine, further increasing global tensions.

Read: Russia to launch two Iranian satellites, says Tehran’s envoy in Moscow

Russia and Iran have divergent objectives in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and regarding Israel. For Putin, Syria is crucial to access the Mediterranean via the Tartus naval base. For Iran, Syria is a vital element in supporting Hezbollah and deterrence against Israel. Russia has stated its opposition to escalating tensions between both countries as it limits Iran’s ability to retaliate against Israeli military operations. It is important to note that Israel maintains security ties with Moscow to coordinate Israeli Air Force operations in Syrian airspace.

Furthermore, Russia has not interfered with Israeli strikes on Iranian positions in Syria, including Iran’s consulate in Damascus. This illustrates Russia’s pragmatic approach of weakening Iran while preserving its relationship with Israel in Syria. It also signals Russia’s intention to use Israel to limit Iran’s influence in Syria’s future, which is key for Israeli security needs.

A nuclear Iran: The crossroads of US, Israel, Russia and China’s interests

If diplomacy between Trump and Putin advances in Ukraine, it is most likely that the US, Israel and Russia will work together regarding Iran’s nuclear threat. For Israel and the US, it is a red line and a pretext of war. Even though Russia has been instrumentalising Iran’s nuclear programme to weaken US foreign policy, it would not favour having a nuclear Iran on its borders. China does not want a nuclear Iran either, and it could also be an opportunity for a US-China relationship, particularly over Taiwan, the major manufacturer of chips in the world.

Iran is also wary that pushing too aggressively with its nuclear ambitions could further damage its economy and threaten the regime’s stability. Increased sanctions would weaken the government’s structure and likely fuel public dissatisfaction with the leadership. With Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s upcoming succession, it is crucial for Iran to strike a balance between security objectives and economic stability. For now, the Islamic Republic’s priority is continuity, recognising that any conflict could undermine its power and control within the country.

The current international context does not favour an easy Iranian transition towards Asia, as with Trump, protectionism will intensify and impact Chinese planification in line with the decoupling strategy. An Iran with nuclear determination can signal diplomatic costs for China with the US; therefore, it can directly influence the development of the 25-year Iran-China cooperation agreement.

All the key nations involved share a common interest in maintaining global order, and none wish to see Iran become a nuclear power. The past eight years, marked by a lack of diplomacy, have only intensified global risks. Trump’s “order over chaos” approach aligns with the priorities of current global and regional leaders. In today’s multi-polar world, where three primary powers vie for dominance, ensuring domestic stability depends on achieving global stability. Addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, along with the conflict in Ukraine, is essential to finding a new balance that can mitigate Russian and Chinese expansionist goals while redefining the US’s role on the world stage.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.