Is Sisi moving towards reconciliation with the Muslim Brotherhood?

The Egyptian authorities’ decision to remove 716 people from the terrorist list is surrounded by mystery. The list includes Muslim Brotherhood leaders, businessmen, journalists and human rights activists, and it raises many questions about the significance of the decision and whether it is a prelude to resolving the crisis between the Brotherhood and the regime of President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi.

The ambiguity is exacerbated by the division that has become apparent in political and media positions in Egypt, between those who support the move, those who oppose it, and those who have reservations about it, especially since the Egyptian government has classified the Muslim Brotherhood as a “terrorist” group since 2013.

Altogether, there are 4,408 names on Egypt’s list of officially designated “terrorist” entities and individuals. Human rights organisations estimate the figure to be closer to 6,700, mainly so-called Islamists and opponents of the 2013 military coup. Being on the terrorist list entails the freezing of funds and properties; a travel ban; being on a watch list; the loss of reputation and good conduct necessary to hold public jobs and positions; bans on activities; and bans on funding at home and abroad.

The controversial decision to remove 716 people from the list was issued a few days ago by the Cairo Criminal Court.

It included some deceased individuals, most notably the former chairman of the International Union of Muslim Scholars, Dr Yusuf Al-Qaradawi and the late parliamentarian Sayed Askar, as well as prominent businessmen such as Walid Asfour, Ali Talaba and Abdel Wahab Abdel Ghaffar. Seeing their names reassures investors and is a goodwill gesture from the Egyptian government about turning the page on the past.

Senior Muslim Brotherhood officials removed from the list includes the former Commissioner of International Political Relations in the movement, Youssef Nada; preacher Wagdy Ghoneim; former Minister Yahya Hamed; and one of the most prominent spokesmen for the group, Jihad El-Haddad. The media figures and human rights activists include Haitham Abu Khalil, Abdel Wahid Ashour and Alia Nasr El-Din.

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So far, the authorities have not disclosed the details of the decision related to Case No. 620 of 2018, State Security Confinement, which includes 1,524 names on the terrorist lists. This means that the fate of the remaining people is not yet known, most notably activist Aisha Al-Shater; deputy head of the Strong Egypt party Mohamed Al-Qassas; human rights activist Ahmed Amasha; former Egyptian national footballer Mohamed Aboutrika; and others whose names were mentioned when the decision was made to add them to the “terrorist” list. That decision was apparently based on investigations by the National Security agency without any questioning of the persons involved, said human rights groups.

The decision has been praised by many, including the venerable institution of Al-Azhar Al-Sharif, which welcomed the move and called on everyone to build on it.

Media outlets affiliated with the government also praised the decision.

“Al-Sisi stressed his concern for his people and his desire to turn a new page for them to integrate into society as good citizens who protect their country and live safely on its land,” said some of the front pages. They also noted that a revision of the legal positions of the accused, whether imprisoned or on the terrorist lists, has been ordered, and said that the government should act quickly as per the national strategy for human rights and to achieve prompt justice and uphold the role of the state and the law.

However, the well-known Egyptian media figure Amr Adeeb used the Saudi-owned satellite channel MBC Egypt to condemn the decision, and warned against reconciliation with the Brotherhood. Media personality Ahmed Moussa, who is close to the security services, claimed on Sada Al-Balad channel, that, “The Brotherhood will remain a terrorist group,” adding, “We will never allow the Brotherhood to return to the country again.”

Opponents of the decision insist that there is confusion within decision making circles, and that it may have been passed without the agreement of all sovereign agencies that control the political scene in Egypt, especially after the dismissal of the head of General Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, in October and the changes that occurred in the structure of media leadership.

Political circles believe that there are several scenarios behind the decision, the first being that it is an attempt to whitewash Egypt’s reputation abroad with its human rights file due to be reviewed at the UN Human Rights Council next month. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund requires an improvement in the political climate in Egypt, and the file of those listed on the terrorist lists to be settled, especially regarding businessmen, in a way that helps attract foreign investment.

Others believe that there is a third scenario related to arrangements to bring about a political breakthrough in the country, paving the way for a truce or reconciliation between the regime and the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet other parties go in a fourth direction, believing that it is likely to be a card in the hands of the Egyptian regime to use against Gulf allies — Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular — and to attract financial aid to save Egypt’s troubled economy.

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A human rights source who requested anonymity believes that the sceptical reactions to the step may mean that the message was lost and did not reach its correct audience, noting that resolving the issue of pretrial detention and the political detainees’ file is the true measure of any expected breakthrough in Egypt.

Diaa Rashwan, the head of the Egypt State Information Service (SIS) who is close to the presidency, told the BBC that reconciliation between the authorities and the Brotherhood is unlikely, “But the matter is commendable, and we appreciate it in the context of resolving a degree of complexity in the current scene.”

Perhaps a deal is being formulated behind the scenes in the form of a conditional political amnesty for the Brotherhood’s members, in exchange for retiring completely from political activities and on the condition that its members detained in Egypt’s prisons are released in batches. However, the matter seems complicated given the security services’ reservations about the step, and the Gulf capitals’ rejection of it.

The reality is that the movement, whose leaders are currently imprisoned, does not possess any pressure cards on the street, and has nothing to offer the Egyptian regime that would prompt it to move towards reconciliation other than recognising its legitimacy. However, the stifling economic crisis and the need to put its house in order with US President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House next month may open the door to relief and change, even if limited, in Egyptian politics.

Political expert Hamdi Al-Masri told me that the step carries a remarkable positive change in terms of using judicial and security means to pursue opponents. He noted that the list included formal and current organisational Brotherhood leadership levels, which means in the medium or long term that the classification of the movement as a terrorist group in Egypt could be revised and it may be absorbed in a limited manner, whether within the framework of social integration or in the public sphere.

The circular that Egyptian newspapers published, attributed to the Egyptian President, included for the first time Al-Sisi referring to his opponents as “his people” and not “the people of evil”, which may indicate the regime’s desire to turn the page on the past, stop security prosecutions and settle the file of detainees, according to Gamal Sultan, an Egyptian journalist who lives abroad, on Facebook.

In conclusion, this step is positive, but the aim behind it is ambiguous.

We await the next moves that may remove this ambiguity and reveal a new, more balanced path that ends the political division that has blighted the country for more than 10 years, against the backdrop of the power struggle between the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Sisi. The latter settled this struggle with a military coup and three presidential elections, during which he threw all of his real competitors into prison.

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