Why a Trump win will suit Egypt’s Al-Sisi

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s eyes are on the White House. A Trump win will suit him very nicely. Indeed, not just Cairo, but other Arab and Gulf capitals also have high hopes for a Trump victory, because he is regarded as being more pragmatic than outgoing US President Joe Biden.

To what extent do the results of the US presidential election matter to the Egyptian regime? How will Al-Sisi benefit from a Trump victory?

The Egyptian president has not forgotten Biden’s veiled threats against him, when he said famously during his election campaign in July 2020: “No more blank cheques for Trump’s ‘favourite dictator’.” That was a reference to when Trump called out on the sidelines of the August 2019 G7 summit in Paris, “Where is my favourite dictator?” when he was waiting for Al-Sisi.

In fact, Al-Sisi is considered to be a close ally of Trump, and one was of his most prominent supporters in the 2016 presidential election against the then Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who often criticised the Egyptian regime on its human rights record. Al-Sisi was the first Arab president that Trump met during his 2016 election campaign. Months later, the Egyptian President became the first foreign president to call Trump and congratulate him on his election victory, according to CNN.

Later, the Washington Post revealed that a bank owned by the Egyptian government supported Trump’s election campaign with a donation of $10 million. This was the subject of an investigation by the US authorities over the course of three years.

The investigation was closed without anyone being charged.

The above may justify the praise that the Egyptian president received from Trump, who referred to the chemistry that he felt brought him together with Al-Sisi during their meeting and described him as a great president. This gave Al-Sisi some immunity from his opponents, which later enabled him to pass a constitutional amendment in April 2019 extending his second term to six years, and allowing him to run for a third presidential term ending in 2030.

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The result was warmth, appreciation, moral and political support, and the turning of a blind eye in Washington to Egypt’s human rights record and the absence of any democratic progress under Al-Sisi. The Egyptian regime was afforded some legitimacy with a visit by Al-Sis to the White House in April 2017, despite him coming to power through a brutal military coup in July 2013. The administration of former Democratic President Barack Obama never extended such an invitation.

According to political researcher Mohamed Gomaa, oppressive regimes always prefer the victory of Republicans in the US, as they are only concerned with protecting Israel’s security and securing American interests. He pointed out that, as president, Trump provided great services to Al-Sisi and rescued him from US contempt and international rejection.

The tide turned during Biden’s time in office. Al-Sisi no longer got what Trump gave him, but was somewhat disregarded by the Biden administration. He did indeed get no more blank cheques, and no invitation to the White House. He had to make due with annual visits to speak at the UN General Assembly in New York, and taking part in the US-Africa Summit, attended by 49 African leaders, in December 2022. Moreover, Biden never visited Egypt officially. He was satisfied with meeting Al-Sisi on the sidelines of the COP 27 climate summit held in Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh a month earlier.

Israel’s military offensive against the Palestinians in Gaza in May 2021 prompted Biden to contact Al-Sisi by phone and praise his role in trying to calm the situation and reach a ceasefire. Communication between the two reached the point that the US with Biden at the helm ignored Egypt’s human rights record and provided military aid worth $1.3 billion last September, for the first time during Biden’s tenure. This was done under the pretext of US national security interests, and the need for the Egyptian role in trying to end the ongoing Gaza genocide now in its second year.

The Biden administration did not fulfil its pledge to take a tough approach against Trump’s favourite dictator.

At least, however, it did not grant Al-Sisi official visits to Washington and the White House, or the public support that Trump used to give him. This is why the Egyptian president has not hidden his hopes for a Trump election victory. He rushed to condemn the shooting of the Republican candidate during a rally in Pennsylvania in July, and made a phone call to check on him, reminding him of the depth of the strategic partnership between the two countries.

The Sisi regime is going through a series of complex crises, most notably the deteriorating economic situation, the collapse of the local currency, the exacerbation of external debts at more than $160 billion, and the decline of the regime’s popularity. Externally, Egypt is under pressure from the escalation of events in neighbouring Gaza, Sudan, the Red Sea and Libya. There is also the dispute over the Renaissance Dam with Ethiopia, which threatens Egypt’s historical share of water from the River Nile.

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Al-Sisi believes that Trump’s return to the White House will secure him more political and financial support through international financial institutions and Gulf capitals, as a reliable ally who must be supported. His regime is one that must be rescued from sinking in the vortex of political, economic and social turmoil.

It is hoped in Cairo that its plans that were halted by Trump’s loss to Biden in 2020 can now be finished with Trump in another term of office. In particular, it will look for strengthened cooperation in combating political Islam movements, and support for the punitive measures Al-Sisi has imposed against the Muslim Brotherhood, which was designated as a “terrorist group” in 2013. The Israeli genocide in Gaza and the shared wish of Egypt, the US and Israel to eradicate Hamas after the 7 October cross-border incursion may provide a pretext for new steps against the Brotherhood, which regards the Palestinian movement as its representative and one of its regional wings.

According to an Egyptian diplomat who requested anonymity, any dictator would generally want a Republican president in the White House, and Trump especially, because he is a businessman. “Al-Sisi leans towards the dealmaker, Trump, and sees him as more understanding of his policies than the Democrats who set human rights and other conditions on aid, which the Egyptian president does not like.”

Another indicator that has fuelled Cairo’s desire for Trump to win is that Al-Sisi’s allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE want the same thing. This will likely restore momentum to the process of normalisation with the apartheid state of Israel sponsored by the Trump administration during his previous term, which was strengthened by the conclusion of the 2020 Abraham Accords signed between the occupation state and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

Trump’s clear hostility to the Arab Spring revolutions and political Islam will certainly give Al-Sisi greater comfort in his domestic policies, and a green light to continue his repression, without paying much attention to his human rights record, silencing of the media or the absence of civil and political freedoms.

“Egypt was handed over to the radicals of the Muslim Brotherhood, which forced the army to retake power,” said Trump in July 2016 when he addressed the Republican Party conference. That was a strong indication of his support for the military coup against the democratically-elected President Mohamed Morsi.

This support was interpreted officially by remaining silent when Morsi died in prison in June 2019.

Furthermore, prominent members of the Trump administration, headed by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, tried to pass a bill designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation, but complications related to the group’s presence in several Arab and Western countries prevented the bill becoming law.

In any case, the Egyptian president remains in dire need of someone to relieve external pressure on him regarding reforms in his country. He also seeks a supporter in the White House who provides him with international cover to continue his repressive policies, and gives him more blank cheques. Trump is likely to be that person.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.