Will Iran pick up the pieces of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ while surviving another 4 years of Trump?

With Donald Trump officially in the White House as the 47 President of the United States of America, some countries, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, are already pondering the immediate and long-term impact of this “unconventional” master of the White House.

Iran has already survived the flurry of executive orders Mr. Trump has signed after he took the oath of office. Apart from a couple of such orders very broadly related to Iran, not much else has been signed, so far, that directly touches Iran.

Not being included in the first batch of Executive Orders, which have the strength of the law, could mean that Iran is not a top foreign policy issue for the Trump Administration, at least for now. Nonetheless it remains a top priority in the back of Mr. Trump’s mind. Should he forget for any reason, Israel and its current fascist government is there to remind him, and the President was quick to reaffirm his unwavering support for Israel by signing an executive order lifting sanctions on extremist and violent Israeli settlers in the Occupied West Bank. In fact, while Mr. Trump was being inaugurated, a group of settlers set fire to Palestinian vehicles and properties in two villages: Jinsafut and Al-Funduq.

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Should President Trump consider any change of course in relation to Iran, the first hurdle he would face is Israeli objections, regardless of who is in power in Tel Aviv. The long wish of the current, indicted criminal, Benjamin Netanyahu, is to drag the US into some kind of military action against Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. Just a week before taking office, Mr. Trump commented that “anything can happen” when asked if he would go to war with Iran. While he is confirming that war is not inevitable because “it’s a very volatile situation”, he said, he is not discounting it.

In his inaugural speech, Mr. Trump emphasized that he likes his legacy to be that of a “peacemaker and unifier” and, to further highlight the point, he added “that is what I want to be a peacemaker and a unifier”, and US relations with Iran fall squarely into this approach in foreign policy. Iran, after all, is an integral part of the volatile and unstable Middle East as the region pulls out of the Israeli genocide in Gaza, with the potential still existing for renewed military action by Israel’s Nazi-like policies.

Indeed, Tehran might be weaker now than it used to be a year ago, but it should not be underestimated in both its military capabilities and political influence in the region, where the US still wants to dominate and protect its allies in the Gulf region, next door to Iran.

Protection and unwavering support of Israel is a cornerstone of Trump’s foreign policy approach and has been reaffirmed by his picks for both US ambassadors to the Jewish state and his choice for US’s representative in the United Nations – both are extreme supporters of Israel, regardless of what it does. But supporting Israel does not necessarily mean being on bad terms with Iran.

The idea of opening a little window to Tehran is not unexpected from someone like Trump. The man likes to be seen differently from any other former US President. He sets himself apart in both personality and political approaches. Trump is the only sitting American President to step into North Korea and spend hours talking to its leader, Kim Jong Un, despite objections from foreign policy and national security bureaucrats. Trump also prefers to be described not in political jargon but in business-like terms such as the deal maker— his favourite description. And making a deal with Tehran could be the ultimate one. He has also been elected with a huge mandate and free of the worries of another term since he cannot run again.

Interestingly, President Trump, in his speech, also emphasized reclaiming “sovereignty” of the US and stop defending “foreign borders”. If this to be taken seriously in foreign policy settings, then there is no other place where the US independent decision is completely hijacked by Israel than in the Middle East and, except for Ukraine, the US pays almost fully for protecting Israel’s claimed borders, including land it occupies and claims as its own. It is unlikely that the Trump Administration goes all the way in liberating its Middle Eastern policies from Israel’s demonic hegemony—that is a far too optimistic scenario, for which the US is not ready yet.

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But Iran is not sitting around waiting for Trump’s next move. While it suffered serious setbacks during the last tremulous year and saw its regional influence wane considerably, it is still able to strengthen partnership within the region. Three days before Trump was inaugurated, Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, was in Moscow visiting his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Both countries signed a new a 20-year military strategic partnership that will boost cooperation in many military aspects including joint military drills, joint training, security services and warship port visits.

Military ties, economic exchanges, trade and political relations between Moscow and Tehran have been on the rise since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. Both countries are under all sorts of US and Western imposed economic and military sanctions making the bilateral strengthening of ties a necessity rather than an option. Many political commentators believe this new deal between Russia and Iran is worrying to the West, but what other options does Iran – or, indeed, Russia – have as they face more or less the same hegemonic US polices? After they have been brothers in sanctions, it is time to be brothers in arms, too—at least this is the view from Tehran and Moscow.

If Washington does not like to see Tehran getting closer to Moscow, then it is Washington who must take the first step towards Tehran by adopting a wiser policy with the aim of pre-emptively dissipating conflict potentials. President Trump might be the most qualified White House resident to take this bold step. To do this, Trump needs to free the US Middle East policy from the unusual and extreme Israeli influence, however unrealistic this might sound.

In the meantime, Iran will certainly try to pick up the pieces of what it calls “Axis of Resistance” after it was hard hit by the collapse of the Syrian regime, the war in Lebanon and the genocide in Gaza. That ambitious objective might not be easy and it will be time-consuming but, again, Tehran is not waiting for Washington to make its move, instead making its own foreign policy endeavours—a good example of this is the 17 January deal signed with Moscow.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.