Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History

Iran is undoubtedly a key player in Middle Eastern politics, but remains poorly understood by outsider observers and the image of the country is mirrored in stereotypes. Political thinker, intellectual and former US diplomat Vali Nasr aims to clearly set out how Iranian leaders see their place in the world and the history that informs Tehran’s strategic culture. His new book Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History comes at a time when Iran is at a crossroads, the nuclear deal with the US, loss of Syria, degrading of allies and the shrinking public support, has led many to conclude that Tehran is on the losing side of history and its fanatical commitment to ideology only makes this problem more acute. However, Iran’s leaders view things very differently, exploring where the Islamic Republic sees itself and the context that shapes it, is what Nasr explores in his latest book.

The example of the chasm of interpretation between Iran’s leaders and outside observers was the 2022 anti-regime protest movement, triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s security forces. While the protests were seen as signs of the regime’s failure as well as growing unpopularity, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei saw things differently, as Nasr points out. Khamenei saw the protests as being the result of Iran’s foreign policy success rather than the Islamic Republic’s failures, “The protests were a plot hatched by Iran’s enemies exactly because Iran was winning, getting closer to its goals.”

Indeed, seeing the protests as a foreign plot and harmful to national security is connected to a key foundation for the Islamic Republic under Khamenei. When the revolution of 1978-1979 took hold in Iran, a key contention was the notion of the universality of the Islamic revolution, which – much like revolutionary communism – should be exported around the world. As Nasr shows throughout the book, a different idea is at the foundations of the Islamic Republic – Iran’s independence. The justification for any major action at home or abroad either rests on or can be undone by anything perceived as being harmful to Iran’s sovereignty. As Khamenei said at the time of the protests and repeated many times since, repressing the protests and using harsh measures against them is about protecting the homeland rather than protecting the integrity of Islamic law or theology.

Iran’s history lends itself to the development of this line of thinking. On the one hand, Iranian intellectuals have discussed Iran’s loneliness, most notably historian Mohammad Ali Eslami Nodoushan who argued that Tehran’s distinct religion, culture and civilisation means Iran is alone in the world.

The flip side of this loneliness is that while this means Iranians seem unique, ambitious and grand, it is often coupled with anxiety. “That loneliness has cast a continuous shadow on Iran, accounting for both its perception of vulnerability in its region and determination to make its greatness known to the world,” Nasr explains. While many events have contributed to this view, from the US-backed coup against Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953, the Shah’s reforms and the 1979 revolution, the biggest influence on how Iranian strategists see the world was the eight-year war with neighbouring Iraq in the 1980s.

“In short, the conflict between Iran and Iraq was a war that would make the state.” In other words, Nasr is arguing the war had a bigger impact on the creation of the Islamic Republic and shaping the way the Islamic Republic sees the world more than the 1979 revolution did.

Iran’s Grand Strategy tells a compelling story about what drives and motivates Iran’s policy making and – at a time when power is changing hands fast in the Middle East – trying to understand how a key regional actor thinks is certainly important. As Nasr argues: “Iran today is the state that national security has built.” But the big challenge for the country is whether this dogmatic commitment to these principles — viewing everything through a national security lens — will continue to stifle or push aside important economic goals and its ability to adapt to the new environment. Here the book offers no answers, but by tracing back the history of how national security functions in Iran, we might individually have a better understanding of how things might play out in Iran.