Beware of the final scene

Israel’s response to the political developments in the Arab world revolves around security. An increase in its military budget has been accompanied by substantial amendments to the country’s security strategy.

Democracy in the Arab world is viewed by Israel as a serious threat to its security and even its existence. The government in Tel Aviv knows that the Arab peoples are against the Israeli colonial project and its criminal practices against the Palestinians; no democratically-elected Arab government could ignore the mood of its people in support of the people of Palestine, leaving little option but to stand up to Israel.

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In his speech last week in the Knesset (parliament), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his government is increasing the military budget due to the “new regional challenges”. He said that there was “a new reality in Egypt and Iraq” and added: “In less than a year we will finish building the security fence on the Egyptian borders … As for Iraq, the fact is there can be challenges to Israel from the east, that we have not faced in recent decades.” Netanyahu also mentioned the Iranian nuclear threat and Libya, from where, he claimed, weapons are being smuggled.

The Knesset Finance Committee approved an increase of $200 million in the military budget weeks ago, without explanation. The promised Ministry of Defence explanation was not forthcoming. Soon after, there was a transfer $400 million from the budget excess of various ministries, also without explanation. Most increases in the military budget this year have been cloaked in mystery, leading analysts to suggest that something big on the military front is being prepared.

Thus, by the end of 2011, the overall increase in Israel’s military budget amounted to around $2 billion at a time of heated discussions about the need to reduce military expenditure in the face of worsening economic and social conditions. While there has been much talk about reducing security budgets for social reasons, the military budget was swelling gradually to avoid attracting too much attention.

These increases in the military budget are in addition to Israel’s “normal” rise based on recommendations made by the Brodet Committee, which suggested increasing the budget of the Israeli military by $30 billion over ten years. These sums come from economic growth and increased US aid, some of which is paid directly while the rest is paid through funding for special projects such as the anti-missile “Iron Dome” project.

Netanyahu did not disclose the size of the anticipated budget increase for the military, but if the actual increase in the overall budget of the Israeli military in 2011 was close to $5 billion ($3 billion as the “Brodet” increase plus an extra $2 billion), then it is expected that the increase in the new year will be much more.

Perhaps Israel has concluded that the ongoing developments in the Arab world have seen the demise of the so-called “moderate” camp in Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Iraq, and even Libya, Tunisia and Turkey. The decision-makers in Israel are therefore operating on the premise that the potential for military confrontation has increased, even if it has diminished in the short term. All this is consistent with Netanyahu’s theory of maintaining “strong people, a strong military, and a strong economy” as a guarantee for a strong state able to live without compromise and without peace.

Over the years, Israel’s elites have believed that a strong state can also provide “concessions” for peace, and is capable of making peace. Netanyahu, however, clearly believes the opposite; a strong state is not in need of peace. In effect, he’s saying that there is no possibility of reaching an agreement with the Palestinians, and that the risks to Israel have increased and not decreased. This may be true, in the sense that no Arab or Palestinian would accept Netanyahu’s prohibitive terms for reaching a just peace and the establishment of Netanyahu’s “Palestinian State”. This would not only recognise Israel as a Jewish state and live alongside it in peace, but would also be without Jerusalem as its capital, without any right of return for refugees, without the 1967 borders and without the dismantling of the illegal settlements.

Netanyahu is not stupid and he knows that such a Palestinian state is a recipe for war, not peace, hence the increase in the military budget. That is the clearest evidence of Israeli intentions, being much clearer than all of the hollow statements of intent made in public.

The new revolver put on the negotiation table by Netanyahu is reminiscent of Anton Chekhov’s maxim that, “The gun that appears in the first scene must fire in the final scene”. The first scene, with Israel’s greatly expanded military budget and new guns, presented quietly and without any fuss, should not blind us to the many other scenes to follow, including a final scene. As Chekov said, “Beware of the final scene.”

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.