All regimes that insist on denying the facts and refuse to read the true reality will, inevitably, pave the way for their own downfall. The regime that ignores what it does not wish to hear, that is delighted to hear the trumpets of falsification, and lets loose hired voices and pulpits whose function is to justify all it does, walks down the path of destruction.
The political scene in Egypt is erratic where neither pleasure nor wrath is permanent. The masses may oust tomorrow the one they love today. Egyptians’ political thermometer has become highly mature; so much so that they are in a position to make distinctions and reassess positions within a brief moment.
Right from the start of the crisis we warned and stressed that the manner in which the problem is treated or addressed will determine the way the future looks and that any mistake we make will only serve the other side. We stressed that no regime would succeed in the aftermath of the January revolution unless it allies itself with the revolution and works for the accomplishment of its objectives. Yet, the authorities have not understood this equation well and have gone on repeating the mistakes of their predecessors; starting with the manner of forming the cabinet and the constitution’s committee and through the adoption of the security method as the sole means to address problems. They have combined this with violations of human rights and the freedom of opinion and expression.
We have been expecting the wise minority within the regime to put an end to the mistakes and not to fall into the trap that was carefully set for it. Yet, it has succumbed to blackmail and threats from the fascist wing that is leading Egypt toward the unknown.
The conclusions of latest poll conducted by the Zogbi corporation in September compared with the months of May and July draw a new and serious picture that had been predicted by reasonable people. Needless to say, the Zogbi corporation is internationally recognised for its highly credible polls and research. The poll was conducted using a methodical and representative sample of Egyptians from urban and rural areas. Interviews were conducted in various Cairo districts, Giza, Alexandria, Port Said, Suez, Mansourah, Tanta, Shubra Al-Khaimah, Asyut, Alminya and Bani Suaif.
The reality exposed by the poll tells us that confidence in the military has dropped from 93% in July to 70% in September. As for the Judiciary, confidence in it dropped from 67% in May to 54% in September. Confidence in the police continues to be relatively stable, 54% in May compared to 49% in September.
The rate of those who have confidence in the interim government is 42% compared to 52% for those who lost trust in the government. As for political leaders, Sisi enjoys the highest ratio at 46% while he is being rejected by 52% of those polled. Confidence in the interim president Adly Mansour has not exceeded 39%; he is rejected by 58%. As for the ousted president, Mohammed Morsi, the ratio of whose who support him is 44% while he is rejected by 54% of Egyptians.
As for the political powers, those who support the Muslim Brotherhood were 34% in September, 26% in May and 24% in July. 59% of Egyptians rejected them. As for Al-Nur party, the ratio of those that support it dropped to 10% while 86% of the people do not trust it. Similarly, support for the Salvation Front dropped to 13% while 83% of Egyptians reject it and do not trust it. The popularity of Tamarrud movement also dropped. 62% of Egyptians said they did not trust the movement compared to 35% who support it. The ratio of Egyptians who have no confidence in any political party is 17% in September compared to 39% in May.
The more serious part of the poll is the one that deals with the Egyptians’ assessment of the ousting of Morsi three months after his removal from power. 46% expressed support for ousting him while 51% said ousting him in this way was not right due to its repercussions. 35% saw that Egypt improved after the 30th of June while 46% said it had become worst. 18% said nothing had changed.
As for the position of Egyptians vis-à-vis reconciliation and integrating the Muslim Brotherhood politically, 50% of Egyptians believe that banning the Brotherhood was necessary while 42% said it was necessary to find a new formula for integrating them politically. 79% of Egyptians believed national reconciliation to be generally important in the future while 21% rejected it. 35% of Egyptians believed that the Muslim Brotherhood was an obstacle hindering the achievement of reconciliation while 23% said the army was the obstacle. 17% believed that the public mood was the obstacle hindering reconcilation.
I know that the mere publication of these figures, whose credibility cannot be doubted, will stir a storm and will evoke accusations of treason and suspicion. This is the silly attitude we have been accustomed to seeing from darkness bats and military elite. Yet, my conscience compels me to pull the alarm so as to stress that the interim period is in danger and that the 30th June alliance, which rapidly crumbled, rearranged the political equation in Egypt among three parties:
The first is the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies.
The second is the supporters of any authority, despite its faults. Behind those stand groups whose interests are linked to the Mubarak regime and who have been staunch supporters of the oppressive security state.
The third is the revolution’s wing that defends democracy but is hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood and to the remnants of the Mubarak regime and that took part in the 30th June rally for democracy. This wing opposes the return of the Muslim Brotherhood and the militarization of the state and opposes the return to the age of repression and the creation of a deformed democratic model.
The scare mongering behind which failures shield themselves so as to frighten people and justify failure will not last long because the people will speak out loudly complaining about the economy, security and basic rights. As a result random rejection and mass anger will erupt. This will either explode in the face of those in power resulting in the collapse of the political process or it will exercise punitive voting against the authority and against its allies with the result of drawing Egypt into the darkness of the unknown. Those in power should read the afore-mentioned figures carefully. If fair and free from rigging elections were to be held, their outcome will be disastrous for an authority that assails those giving it advice branding them as traitors instead of listening to them and taking steps to rectify its own course.
No one knows what the coming days will bear.
Mustafa Al-Najjar is a prominent politician; he is well-known for his role in the 25 January revolution. He is a blogger and founder of Al Adil (Justice) party. He was elected to the dissolved parliament after the 25 January revolution. He supported the anti-Morsi demonstrations on 30 June.
This article is a translation of the Arabic text published by Al Shorouk newspaper on 22 November, 2013
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.