The myth of a political solution in Syria

No sane person believes that it is possible to reach a political solution with Bashar Al-Assad and his supporters, who include Iran’s Ali Khamenei; it was just as true to say that no sane person in Europe could believe that it was possible to reach a political solution with Adolf Hitler. This has been proven by the events of the past four years. Assad’s methods are not political, they are warfare and he has never dealt with the people in any way other than violence and submission by means of force and oppression. The regime’s power is built upon a monopoly of control through neo-fascist means; the only thing it appears to understand is “kill or be killed”; there is no obvious middle ground.

As for Tehran, which now holds the fate of this violent leadership in its hands, it is living through a state of what can best be described as national doctrinal insanity that is driving it to chase after the mirage of rebuilding the Persian Empire on religious foundations in the Arab world. This is its way of challenging the West and history, and it views Syria as the cornerstone in its imperial project. Iran knows that if it abandons control of Syria or agrees to share power there with other regional forces, even the Syrian people, then its aspirations would be undermined. The only option open to it is to escalate the conflict until the government in Tehran achieves its goals.

However, the religious authorities in Iran seem intent on going the same way as the Zionists by committing political genocide before the physical genocide of an entire nation. They want to prolong their occupation to change the demographic in strategic areas; thus will Syria and Lebanon be occupied, as Iraq has been. They are hoping to achieve this by coming to an understanding with Washington over Iran’s nuclear ambitions while covering the occupation project with nominal support for the resistance against Israel. However, this actually means that it will split control of the region after reaching an official understanding with Tel Aviv which allows Iran to establish its presence in Syria; that is what happened when Assad’s regime was established in Lebanon in exchange for guaranteeing Israel’s security.

This is why all of the initiatives for a political solution have failed, including those proposed by the Assad regime’s friends during the first months of the revolution, such as the Qataris, Turks, Saudis, Europeans and others. The Arab League initiative, as well as the Geneva II Middle East peace conference, and UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi’s mission which ended with the failure of Geneva II, all failed. The only political discussions witnessed in Geneva were accusations of treason and inappropriate name-calling directed at the opposition by Assad’s delegation. The two main envoys were forced to admit their failure and Assad’s responsibility for it, and then submitted their resignations.

As for the multiple initiatives being discussed at the moment after the failure of Geneva II, they cannot be considered initiatives, or even promising ideas. Most of them only aim to trick the political and military opposition in order to force them to make concessions that are “likely” to help overcome the Russian obstacle. It is worth noting that despite its major military role, Russia is unable to impose any solution, neither on Assad nor Tehran. The same can be said about the United Nations envoy, Staffan de Mistura, and his initiative, which already recognises defeat as there is no hope for a political or military solution. It only aims to facilitate local ceasefires in order to alleviate the suffering of the people.

Politics is not an alternative to war

The UN and global superpowers’ commitment to a political solution does not mean that anyone actually believes that there is a solution. Instead, it is a way to evade the rational conclusion of there not being potential for the solution and the responsibilities and obligations that come with this conclusion, imposed on the UN and these countries by their charter of not standing idly by while a genocidal war is being waged by the regime, which has become a tool in the hands of foreign countries after having hijacked the state and its institutions. In other words, the game of searching for a “political solution” is used to fill the diplomatic vacuum and feed the illusion of international action and the delusion that the Syrian people are not left alone to be killed before the eyes and ears of the world, but this is the truth.

In addition, initiatives and diplomatic manoeuvres are also being used to cover up the miserable failure of the UN in general, and Ban Ki-moon personally, to take decisive measures to stop the war or alleviate the suffering of the Syrians. The most important and dangerous task of such initiatives and solutions is to distract Syrian, Arab and international public opinion from the West’s political and moral resignation, especially the US, with regards to the Syrian crisis. Over the past four years, these initiatives were used to fool the opposition and justify Washington’s refusal to take any real action to save the Syrian people.

There will be no end to the war with the current political choices made by the West, especially the US. There will also be no political solution; there will only be a surrender to Assad and Khamenei, unless the joint war machine, made up of the remnants of the Syrian army and sectarian militias recruited from various counties, is destroyed. Any delay in doing so will only mean allowing greater escalation of violence and brutality, and aggravating the crisis and the human suffering, as well as increasing the risk of it spilling over into neighbouring countries.

There’s no escape from an Arab intervention

If the Western countries do not feel the imminent danger that will result from the continued killing and destruction in Syria and are not suffering from the lack of a political solution and decisive military action, this does not apply to the Arab countries or to Turkey; the latter is living in the eye of the storm. This is either because the national security of these countries is suffering from serious threats resulting from the collapse of the Syrian state and the control of Tehran and the Revolutionary Guard forces (which are using Syria as a platform for aggression and pressure against its neighbours), or because of the political and humanitarian projections of the Syrian crisis on them. The Arab countries should not stand idly by and wait for the cancer of violence and fascism to spread; that is not in their best interest. They must make a move and force the UN and the rest of the world to stand behind them in order to defend their national interests and the interests of their people.

Syria is not only part of the Arab world; it is also the balancing point for the entire east. Control over Syria will determine the fate and control of the region. Continuing to ignore what is going on there simply means serving up Syria on a silver platter to Tehran and abandoning it to the control of extremist doctrinal militias from every religion; in other words, the complete surrender to Iranian sectarian expansion and admission of defeat without a war. This also highlights the paralysis of the Arabs and their divisions, which encourages their enemies to harass and abuse them, including the militias, mercenaries and terrorist organisations; ultimately, all of the efforts made by the countries in the region to maintain stability, regional peace and security are lost.

The Arab states should consider the issue of the Syrian war as their number one priority and support the political initiative adopted by the UN. With practical mechanisms in place, it becomes a military initiative that forces all the Syrian parties to comply with the principles and conditions set out therein and put an end to the bloodshed and fragmentation in the country. It is a way to beat the terrorist groups and sectarian militias and prevent them from taking control of the area and establishing their own domains.

Syria’s security is an essential part of the security of the Levant; this is a fact, not an exaggeration, which will be confirmed in due course. It is enough to note the strategic flaw that led to the enablement of Tehran and its allies to surround the Arabian Peninsula, and marginalise Egypt and North Africa, separating it from the rest of the region. They have also been able to unleash the demons of sectarian and religious war that threaten everyone and fragment the fabric of Syrian society, displacing millions of people. This is a humanitarian crisis for the Syrians and the Middle East. Moreover, Syrian territory has become a magnet for religious and non-religious extremists.

The truth is that the Arab countries have underestimated the Syrian conflict and dumped the responsibility for resolving it on the UN, even though they know that the Security Council is disabled and there will be no international intervention. They have used soft politics over the past four years without any reaction, remaining content with merely providing little gestures of physical, military and political support for civilian forces, which were armed hastily. The Arabs have also underestimated the will of Iran to dominate, leaving Tehran to achieve its goals without any firm response. The Iranians declared their control of Bab Al-Manda and imposed their regional project on Yemen, declaring explicitly the intention and will to develop this project in the Gulf in the future. Thus, the Arab countries have opened their doors to all possible risks and threats.

The things that the Arab world should have done still need to be done, and further delay will not resolve the crisis. Instead, it will increase the cost of facing the crisis, as well as its humanitarian, political and military risks in a manner that may be unbearable. It may also push for its escalation and the growth of its spread and threats. What Europe had to do to confront Hitler’s Nazism is exactly what the Arab states and Turkey need to do to confront the situation in Syria, with or without the support of the UN and the international coalition. Now is time to do this, not after Washington and Tehran sign a memorandum of understanding and resolve Iran’s nuclear issue.

Translated from Al-Araby Al-Jadid, 23 February, 2015

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.