Will the Obama administration go through with its threats to re-evaluate the relationship with Israel?

The Obama administration announced that it would re-evaluate its policies regarding Israel in light of the statements made by Netanyahu during his election campaign. This included his abandonment of his commitment to a Palestinian state. In order to justify this position, the White House spokesperson said that Washington believes in the need to establish a Palestinian state because its establishment serves the American and Israeli interests, as well as the Palestinian interests.

In order for the American administration to give gravity to its talk of re-evaluation, Obama did not express any concern regarding Netanyahu’s “back down” from his position on the Palestinian state after winning in the elections. The US State Department spokesman said that his administration might abstain from voting if a draft resolution recognising the Palestinian state is proposed to the UN Security Council and that the US may even recognise the Palestinian state without waiting for the outcome of the negotiations.

Will the American administration go through with its threats? What would be the outcome of this? What are the expected scenarios?

The first scenario would involve Washington backing down from its intention to re-evaluate its policies and instead Obama will remain content with the ear pulling he delivered to Netanyahu in exchange for Netanyahu’s commitment to the Palestinian state. This is despite the fact that he knows, more than anyone else, that this commitment was meaningless since day one because Netanyahu set impossible conditions to agree to the establishment of the state. These conditions include ensuring Israel’s security and Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish nation-state. After he withdrew his commitment, Netanyahu added new conditions such as Abu Mazen’s need to abandon his partnership with Hamas; he must choose between Hamas and Israel. He also added a new condition involving Israel needing to guarantee itself in terms of security more than ever after the serious developments and shifts in the region before it agrees to the establishment of the Palestinian state. Even before backing down from his commitment, Netanyahu said that the establishment of the state must not prevent Israel from the right to intervene within the territories of the state to protect Israel’s security.

When Netanyahu endorsed a Palestinian state during a speech in 2009, it was an attempt to please the American administration and Washington was content with it being only a formality. It was not concerned with the fact that Netanyahu’s government was rejecting initiatives, causing negotiations to fail and continuing its aggression and racial discrimination. This fortifies the establishment of a fait accompli that makes the Israeli solution (which fails to meet even the basic rights that should be accorded to Palestinians) the only solution that is feasible.

This scenario is reinforced by the fact that Obama is giving priority to his deal with Iran, which is strongly opposed by Israel, the Republican Party and supporters of Israel and the fact that he does not want to open another front especially in light of his presidential term approaching its end. To even consider doing so would lead to pressure from his party and its presidential candidates, specifically Hillary Clinton. She has taken a pro-Israel position and does not want to lose the backing of Israel’s supporters in the next presidential election.

In this scenario, the administration takes the advice of author and diplomat Dennis Ross. He believes that now is not the time for negotiations or solutions but rather it is the time to focus on restoring confidence and providing the appropriate conditions for the resumption of negotiations. Ross has also said that it is only possible to manage the conflict, not resolve it.

The second scenario involves Obama approving the issuance of a Security Council resolution that recognises the Palestinian state and includes a timeframe for its establishment. Abbas will then be forced to activate the Palestinian membership to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and implement the Central Committee’s decisions regarding ending security coordination with Israel. In this case, the situation is likely to completely deteriorate and will lead to a Palestinian – Israeli confrontation that will have repercussions on the entire region; a region already witnessing wars and divisions.

A Security Council resolution recognising the Palestinian state or America’s recognition of a Palestinian state will be costly for the Palestinians. This resolution will include American and international standards such as the inclusion of “land swaps”, considering Israel’s security a priority and giving up on major Palestinian issues. The American administration may also demand that the resolution include a clause referring to the “Jewishness” of Israel (as was the case in the French draft resolution) and will most likely be paired with the demand for the any attempts made to “delegitimise” Israel to be halted.

This means that the price of such a resolution would be greater than any gains, even though it would be portrayed as a victory for Palestine. It could merely be an addition to the past international resolutions and recognitions which have been cast aside and are being undermined by the facts and actions on the ground. This undermines any possibility of reaching a solution and makes it more difficult, if not impossible, to establish a Palestinian state.

The American administration may be content with only supporting a Security Council resolution that condemns settlements and calls for freezing settlement activity. It will likely follow this with calls for the resumption of negotiations on this basis. By doing so, the Obama administration will have only dealt a light blow to Netanyahu without changing the adopted policies.

The third scenario involves the American administration imposing some of the sanctions that Europe threatened to impose against Israel and wait for them to have an effect on Israel.

Regardless of anyone of the scenarios’ potential harm or benefit, Palestine will be unable to reap the benefits or effectively tackle the potential harm as long as division within Palestine continues. In this regard, I must warn against the five-year truce initiative between Hamas and Israel currently being promoted by Arab, regional and international forces in exchange for restoring use of the port. This will ultimately deepen the state of division.

Any divisions will allow Netanyahu’s government (as well as any other government) to contain and absorb any damages caused by any Security Council resolution or measures taken by the American administration or EU. If there is no international action taken in which all the concerned parties are involved (including international and regional powers) then we will remain in the vicious cycle of managing the conflict rather than resolving it. Even if we do find a solution, it will be weak and will allow the establishment of state that is void of the components of a state.

The priority must be the restoration of unity, especially in light of the escalation of the challenges and risks faced by the Palestinian cause. Unity alone can keep the cause alive, provide the motivation to persevere, reduce the damages and turn risks into opportunities.

Regardless of whether the division between Israel and its allies continues, we must not fall for the delusions believed by the PA leadership for so long which have already cost the Palestinian people dearly. Such delusions include distinctions between the Israeli political parties based on there being a “peace” camp in Israel. The results of the recent Israeli elections demonstrated that this was false. It is time for a realisation that changing Israel from the inside is too difficult. Change in Israel can only come from pressure from external forces. This may lead to the development of a true peace camp that opposes the colonial settlement project.

We must also abandon the delusion of achieving a state by means of bi-lateral negotiations under sole American sponsorship. This requires us to prove our good intentions, merit and to abandon the unity of the cause, people and land.

There are challenges, risks and plots, but there are also great opportunities for the Palestinians to cleverly use them to their advantage.

This article was first published in Arabic by Masarat.ps. This article was update at 16.57 GMT on March 25th, 2015 to update the headline to represent the content better

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.