Has Russia succeeded where Iran has failed?

Although the Russian experiment may have started badly when two of their planes were shot down – the first a civilian plane that was blown up over Egypt and the second a fighter jet gunned down over Turkey – it seems that Putin is determined to win the battle in Syria. We now see Russia implementing a smart plan that focuses on isolating the Turks, the main player against Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. If they are successful in this, they will have the last word regarding Syria’s future.

Russian fighter jets and rockets have violently bombed checkpoints on the Turkish-Syrian border as well as areas within Syria that the Turks consider under their protection. The Russians say that they destroyed the checkpoints that allow the entry of fighters and trade between the two countries and that they have cut off the sole lifeline that links Syria’s Islamist militias to the world. Jordan has stopped all movement across its borders after the Iranians reached southern Syria, specifically Daraa. In Lebanon, the army, along with Hezbollah, has almost completely closed the border with Syria, just as the Iraqi Kurds did after the battle of Kobane in northern Syria. As for the borders with Iraq’s Al-Anbar province, it remains open but does not give the Syrian opposition a link to the outside world.

Now, after Russia has paralysed Turkey’s capabilities as a serious player in Syria, are we facing the end of the Syrian revolution and the end of moderate armed opposition organisations such as the Free Syrian Army?

In my opinion, this is a temporary setback, and I am not talking from the military operational aspect. I am speaking based on the political and social motivations that are driving the war. The popular incubator for the Syrian uprising is Syria and the Syrian people, not foreign forces as its opponents claim. Al-Assad’s regime belongs to the era of the Soviet Union, the Cold War, and similar regimes across the world that fell or were replaced.

The opposition will continue and their rejection of Al-Assad will endure; the Russians, Iranians and remnants of the regime will not succeed in turning back the hands of time. Without a political solution that gives hope to everyone, the war will not stop even if every border is closed.

If the Russians want to succeed in Syria, they have a valuable opportunity to do so given their relations with most of the main players are good. They can formulate a solution based on combining the non-religious and non-extremist opposition with some popular forces and some of Al-Assad’s icons.

The Riyadh conference will pave the way to forming a front capable of leading the new Syria. It is in everyone’s interest to abandon extremism and the exclusion of others.

Translated from Arabi21, 30 November 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.