The US and Russia are breaking up the Syrian opposition

Russia’s intervention in Syria at the end of September last year was not far from the Putin-Obama understandings; it was related to the war on terrorism. The UN and its allies have gambled from the beginning that Russia will eventually persuade Bashar Al-Assad to leave office by the end of the transition stage. However, Russia, which has its own definition of terrorism, argued from the beginning that the list of terrorist groups is not only limited to Daesh but is also a rather long list of similar Syrian armed groups.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin realised that military intervention in Syria has no horizon or firm end date, and that it cannot lead to any additional gains, he announced a partial withdrawal, thus putting pressure on the US and Assad to make as many gains as possible. Using concerted military pressure without clear political results requires the allocation of economic resources and heavy financial input and may put Russia up against a geopolitical confrontation which Putin may wish to avoid.

Moving forward militarily without taking any political steps undermines Russia’s credibility, which was achieved through positioning diplomatic frameworks and the possibility of their application as per last November’s Vienna statement and the truce agreement that came into force on 27 February (which excludes Daesh and Al-Nusra Front). The agreement between Moscow and Washington was on the basis of a ceasefire in conjunction with the resumption of the political process in Geneva according to the roadmap stipulated by UN Resolution 2254.

The truce was a Russian-American ploy to get rid of Daesh and Al-Nusra, and an essential start to getting rid of all armed opposition groups which refuse to operate against the extremists. It was a test to see which groups are willing to go to war against terror without a clear political horizon. Since the very beginning, the plan was to launch a large-scale military operation by the US and its allies on one hand and a similar operation by Russia and its allies to corner all Syrian opposition groups, with Aleppo being the meeting point. The fallacy of the truce appeared early on, with more than 2,000 breaches by Assad’s regime, mainly in the city of Aleppo.

The US has decided that all it wants in Syria is to eliminate Daesh. The issue of Assad’s departure from the scene is no longer of any importance or priority. In the context of looking for partners, Washington found what it was looking for in the Kurds and some Syrian Sunni tribes, which led to the formation of a new group called the Syrian Democratic Forces.

This name is intended to disguise the nationalistic and ideological orientations of the group, which enjoys relations with the Syrian regime. It includes Kurds affiliated with the Democratic Union Party and the Women’s Protection Forces, which is a branch of the Kurdish Protection Forces. As for the rest of the Syrian Democratic Forces, they are accessory groups of ethnic minorities and tribal groups such as Sanadeed, which are clan militias led by Hamidi Daham, Syrian Military Junta, Euphrates Operations Room and AlJazeera Peninsula Brigades.

Washington is fulfilling its part of the agreement with Russia and has made remarkable progress through US-backed Kurdish groups’ siege of Manbej in Aleppo District. Russia and its allies from the Assad regime, Iran and Hezbollah are advancing on the opposite side of Aleppo. This is how the US and Russia are dealing with Assad’s regime as partners in the war against Daesh.

The silence of regional countries, particularly the Gulf States, which originally supported the Syrian opposition, shows that they have surrendered to the vision of the US and Russia. They are completely submissive and devoid of any initiative. Turkey, meanwhile, is unable to quarrel with any party.

The US-Russian action is not limited to Daesh and Al-Nusra Front, but also targets armed Syrian opposition groups. If Washington and Moscow can eliminate Daesh and Al-Nusra, they will start to isolate and target such groups if the latter insist on their traditional goal of getting rid of Assad. Thus the opposition will find themselves out of the game and excluded from negotiations.

This still needs Aleppo to be taken back from the control of Daesh, Al-Nusra and the opposition. Regime forces are about to surround the city and are reinforcing their positions in the south, making significant progress in besieged Ghouta near Damascus. This sits alongside the advancing Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurds, against armed opposition groups and ejecting them from most of their strongholds in the northern countryside around Aleppo.

The bottom line is that there is a US-Russian agreement to get rid of the Syrian opposition groups which do not accept certain conditions and the catastrophic US solution built around Assad’s rehabilitation. All regional parties supporting the Syrian revolution have given in to that vision.

Thus, getting rid of Daesh and Al-Nusra will be a stage on the path towards getting rid of the rest of Syria’s armed Sunni opposition groups, just as happened with their Iraqi counterparts during the American occupation. The international powers will support any religious or ethnic groups except for Sunni Arabs, a matter likely to lead to the explosion of Sunni discontent.

Translated from Arabi21, 12 June, 2016

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.