They are planning for the day after the war in Gaza

The Gaza war is not over yet, and although it may continue for a long time, both the US and Israel are rushing to end it because the longer it lasts, the more complex its repercussions will be. Therefore, American policy is trying to drown out the war with diplomacy, while confirming what it says about Israel’s right to defend itself, the unwavering American commitment to protect it and working to prevent it from becoming a multi-front regional war. There is agreement among strategic think tanks that the factor of time is not working in favour of any of them in the Middle East. It appears from developments in US military and diplomatic mobilisation that the main purpose of the American power policy now is to try to close the “genocidal war” file against the Palestinians as fast as possible, while achieving the greatest number of its goals and limiting dealing with it to merely mitigating its humanitarian effects.

American power policy speaks with two tongues at once: first, by intensifying military build-up in the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Gulf and, second, by intensifying diplomatic contacts with its allies in the region. In this context, the American military force in the eastern Mediterranean has become the largest combat force on standby outside the US. The intensity of American diplomacy in the region also went beyond what it was in other places of conflict, including Ukraine and the confrontation zone in the South and East China Sea, extending from Japan and Taiwan to the Philippines. The goal of this military and diplomatic intensification is to bring together all pressure factors to shorten the duration of the war and protect Israel from suffering a humiliating military defeat.

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Why has the factor of time become crucial?

Since 7 October, the Israeli deterrence strategy has collapsed, and the result was that the American striking military force took its place to protect Israel, restrict the potential for the Palestinians to obtain aid from abroad and intervene, if necessary, to protect it from defeat. However, if the American Forces remain in the eastern Mediterranean at their current intensity for a long time, this may threaten Joe Biden’s chances in the presidential elections, because even if he wins the Zionists’ vote, it could cost him the votes of the American majority, who are currently paying the economic and social price of these Forces remaining where they are. This is especially given the expected increase of attacks against US bases in the Middle East, in general, not just Iraq and Syria. Furthermore, the prolonged presence of American Forces in the Middle East makes the US an outright partner in the Israeli genocidal war against the Palestinian people and its subsequent repercussions.

Although all the factors surrounding this war are characterised by fluctuations and uncertainty, observing its development from the beginning until now (33 days) proves the existence of three fundamental and certain factors that have not changed and are not doubted, and which still determine its features. The first factor is Palestinian steadfastness, despite the enormity of the sacrifices. The tongues, hearts and consciences of the Palestinians are chanting, “We bleed blood, but we will not bleed dignity.” The second factor is the continued ability to respond to and confront the barbaric Israeli war machine, to confirm the fall of the deterrence strategy based on brute force, and that Israel is sorely mistaken if it believes that it can annihilate a nation or deprive them of the right to live in a safe homeland, and that the military solution fundamentally contradicts the goal of achieving sustainable stability. The third factor is the strength of global solidarity. This solidarity with the Palestinian people has now covered all continents of the world at the popular level, as is evident in the million-man anti-war protests, calling for a ceasefire and peace and which accuse Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinian people. Global solidarity is also evident at the level of governments, as recorded by the vote at the UN General Assembly by an overwhelming majority (120 against 14, including the US and Israel). This support for the Palestinian Resistance in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem is getting stronger every day, even in the US, EU countries, NATO countries and even among the Jews themselves. This is a backing that deserves to be celebrated by the Palestinian steadfastness, and for all Palestinian parties, including the PA in Ramallah, to make a greater effort to expand the scope of the Palestinian war of existence from merely a war on battlefields in armed confrontation with Israel into a confrontation in the arenas of diplomacy and dialogue, to continue winning world public opinion by presenting a clear project for co-existence and peace with the Jewish people.

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These three factors – steadfastness, willpower and growing global solidarity – give the Palestinian people additional strength and indicate the prolonging of the war that the Israeli government thought would be easy and short. Anyone who recalls the statements of Netanyahu, Gallant, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir, along with Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, in the early days of the war now realises how wrong their estimates were, to what extent their military plans are subject to change day by day and how the implementation of these plans fails, one after the other. This is evident in the continuation of desperate retaliatory air strikes against civilians in camps, residential neighbourhoods, schools and temporary shelter camps, until it reached the point of bombing wounded civilians, targeting ambulances and hospitals. The continued intensity of air strikes against civilians reflects a desperate vengeful spirit that has no other option than dropping tonnes of bombs on Gaza every day.

Continuing the war or a regime change?

Michael Eisenstadt, Director of the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy concluded that “The goal of destroying Hamas will require a prolonged military effort, but the longer the fighting drags on, the less likely Israel will be to retain the freedom of action needed to achieve its war aims” given the repercussions that the length of the war will have on other fronts, most notably the West Bank, the complications that it could also leave on the future of normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab countries, and the damage that it could cause for American interests in the Middle East. This is in addition to the expected negative repercussions on the chances for political stability in some Arab countries.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, redefined the goals of the war in a speech before the Knesset on 20 October, stressing the necessity of achieving two goals. The first is to destroy all the military capabilities of the Hamas government, and the second is to destroy its political credibility by eliminating its governing bodies and administrative structures. Gallant explained that the war plan takes place in three stages: The first stage is a concentrated air campaign, followed by military operations on the ground aimed at destroying Hamas members and the main military infrastructure on which they depend. The second phase is a transitional phase, during which combat operations continue, but at a lower intensity, with the aim of eliminating remaining pockets of Resistance. As for the third stage, its goal is to create a new security reality for Israeli citizens, including the residents of the Gaza envelope area that restores their confidence in the government’s ability to protect them. If we compare what is happening on the ground, in the air, and the sea as of the time these lines were written, more than a month after the start of combat operations, and after Netanyahu and Gallant announced that the war had entered its second phase, Israel is still continuing its air strikes against Palestinian civilians, and is trying to put more pressure on Gaza from the sea, while its armoured forces on land are suffering heavy losses. As a result of all of this, Israel is focusing its main military effort on directing crushing strikes on Gaza City to level it to the ground. This land is no longer a safe theatre of operations since the openings of the tunnels have turned into “volcanic craters” that shoot fire on the aggressor’s armoured vehicles and the military teams inside them.

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Many in Israel and the US believe that Israel must redevelop the goal of the war and reduce it to simply changing the government in Gaza, i.e., a regime change, similar to what the US did in Iraq 20 years ago. Brigadier General (res.)  Udi Dekel, head of the research program on the Palestinian arena at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and head of the Israeli delegation to the Annapolis negotiations (2007-2008), advised the Israeli government to invest the strength of current American and European support in overthrowing Hamas’ rule, establishing conditions to prevent its return to power again and encouraging the idea of forming an international coalition to fight Hamas, which may include a permanent military presence of American and European forces, to ensure a response to any aggression by Iran. From Dekel’s point of view, this means that Israel will benefit from Western support, along with the cooperation of its regional partners, to establish a new regime to ensure security and limit potential threats in the future after the overthrow of Hamas’s rule.

This article appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 8 November, 2023

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.