The Saudi-UN road map that will lead Yemenis to hell

There are no obstacles today facing the Yemeni parties that prevent them from signing the Saudi-UN road map with humanitarian, political and security paths. The Houthis have acknowledged this, and they are the party that placed most of these obstacles, after the kingdom committed to meeting their demands, most notably paying their salaries and giving them complete freedom to fully manage ports and airports, and to act as an equal partner within a geography that has recently been linked to an escalation described as the most dangerous regarding international shipping traffic in the southern Red Sea.

There has been no fundamental change in the priorities of the Houthi group, which are “ending the aggression and siege, paying salaries to all Yemeni employees, releasing all prisoners and detainees, the removal of foreign forces from Yemen, reconstruction, and preparing for political dialogue.” You will notice that the political dialogue will not take place until the Houthis obtain all the capabilities that establish their authority. It is difficult to make real concessions in subsequent political dialogues to the other party, represented by the legitimate authority, which is practically fragmented into parties and projects, the most dangerous of which is the secession project.

Saudi Arabia’s generosity included a commitment to pay the salaries of the civil, military and security agencies operating under the authority of the Houthi group, for a period of no less than six months. This will definitely bring the kingdom closer to its strategic goal, which is to escape the consequences of leading the military intervention and moving towards playing the role of mediator in an unstable Yemeni scene, an unresolved conflict, and a horizon that promises something more dangerous and the worst.

Saudi Arabia was forced to provide direct financial support to the Houthis amid unconfirmed information that it paid $750 million to the Houthis before they signed the road map. Meanwhile, the treasury of the legitimate authority remains empty due to the cessation of oil exports after the ports were subjected to strikes said to have been carried out by Houthi drones. Information from government officials suggests that stopping oil exports is part of a plan to disrupt the government’s logistical and financing capabilities by the UAE and perhaps Saudi Arabia as well, which means that the strike was carried out by planes belonging to one of these two countries.

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According to the content of the road map revealed so far, the legitimate authority will be able to re-export oil to fulfil its obligations in the form of the salaries of employees in its government, military and security agencies. This is despite the difficulties stopping the re-exporting process to reach its previous levels, which was more than 130,000 barrels per day.

The pragmatic shift in the Saudi approach to the Yemeni war was certainly achieved at the expense of the deadly marginalisation of the legitimate authority, its agencies and its influence, and through the deliberate dismantling of its authority into islands of conflicting wills and projects. It was also achieved through a series of concessions made by Saudi Arabia on behalf of the Yemeni people and the usurped legitimate authority that represents them. These concessions began with settling disputes with the Houthis, and before them, with Iran, which succeeded in pushing Riyadh towards this path, following its dangerous military intervention in the course of the Yemeni war on behalf of the Houthis. This is in addition to the Americans’ withdrawal from the confrontation with Tehran, which is imposed by the commitment to the strategic partnership between Washington and Riyadh, extending over several decades.

There appears to be no intention to settle the differences and overcome the complex crises that dominate the legitimacy camp, before signing the road map, and ensuring the implementation of the map in a way that guarantees moving towards peace and returning the initiative to the Yemeni people, as well as forcing the armed groups to make concessions in favour of the state institutions that will be established after signing the agreement.

The Houthi group may have had the opportunity to view the road map, discuss it, and make observations on it, until it was approved by the head of their negotiating team, Mohammed Abdul Salam, during his meeting with the UN Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, last Friday in Muscat. Following that, Abdul Salam announced that “progress has been made in the road map.” However, the legitimate authority and its president were briefed on the road map verbally during their meeting with Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia has bound its allies in the legitimacy camp to three agreements to ensure that this camp behaves with the required discipline before, during and perhaps after signing the road map with the Houthis. These agreements include: an agreement of principles that provides guarantees regarding an appropriate solution to the southern issue, and I do not know how this solution will be available with the Houthis who have the upper hand. There is a ‘code of honour’ agreement, and another for deterrence. The latter may relate to the mechanism of joint deterrence of the Houthis in the event that the road map does not go as planned.

The Yemenis are a few steps away from a hell without a horizon, to which they are being pushed through an international road map. What is most interesting about it is that the signatories to it are a legitimate authority imposed by the royal will during the era of Saudi guardianship over the Yemeni people, a coup group that thwarted the process of change proposed by the people at a crucial moment in its contemporary history, and authoritarian and separatist armed groups produced by the coalition on the sidelines of the war, which have become a burden on its present and future and a historical blemish that will continue to be an embarrassment for the Yemenis.

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Everything indicates that Saudi Arabia is seeking, by any and all means, to escape from the direct consequences of the war, to get rid of its burdens, and to establish its traditional influence in Yemen, which it will certainly exercise from now on warring parties, scorched lands and a fragmented geography. Therefore, the road map has come to meet the needs of Saudi Arabia and the worst Yemeni parties, making the UN envoy, Hans Grundberg, appear as just a glove that perpetuates the failure of the four UN envoys to reach a just end to the war that has depleted the Yemenis, their blood and their national unity, destroyed their economy, fragmented them, and left them with poverty, weakness and humiliation.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 10 December 2023

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.