Why did Israel kill Ismail Haniyeh, and what could be the repercussions?

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has attracted significant international attention, highlighting the complexities of Iran’s internal and regional security dynamics. The killing underscores a potential deterioration in Iran’s internal security situation and signals a shift in the regional power balance. Israel’s manoeuvres, including the assassination of senior resistance figures like senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr on Tuesday and Haniyeh overnight, reflect its broader goals in the Middle East, particularly in its long-standing conflict with Iran and its allies.

Iran’s deterrent missile attack against Israel on 14 April marked a significant escalation in regional tensions. This event was perceived as a demonstration of Iran’s growing military capabilities and its willingness to assert itself against Israeli actions. However, Israel’s recent acts, notably the targeted killings of key figures within Hezbollah and Hamas, indicate a concerted effort to recalibrate the regional security balance.

The assassination of Haniyeh, who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new reformist President, Masoud Pezeshkian, is particularly significant. It not only represents a blow to the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, but also serves as a strategic move by Israel to disrupt potential diplomatic engagement and negotiations. The Israeli leadership, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, appear to have multiple objectives with this high-profile assassination.

By targeting Haniyeh, Israel aims to derail any constructive negotiations to end the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The Israeli government is likely seeking to buy time, hoping for a shift in the US political landscape that might favour its policies more robustly. The potential re-election of former President Donald Trump, known for his strong support of Israeli interests, is seen as a possible game-changer for the occupation state.

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Moreover, the assassination seeks to stymie any progress towards normalising relations between Iran and Western powers over nuclear and regional issues. Iran cannot simply disregard this Israeli warmongering, so by eliminating a key figure like Haniyeh while he was in Tehran, the Israeli government hopes to undermine any diplomatic efforts that could lead to a de-escalation of tensions and a potential rapprochement between Iran and the West.

Israel’s actions also appear designed to provoke a broader regional conflict, with the aim of drawing in the United States to defend Israeli interests. Netanyahu’s administration has faced significant challenges in achieving its objectives in Gaza and northern Israel, and a regional war could be perceived as a means to galvanise more Western support and military intervention.

The assassination of Haniyeh has undoubtedly put Iran in a challenging position. Tehran’s response must balance the maintenance of its deterrence capabilities while avoiding an all-out regional war, which could have devastating consequences for the entire Middle East. Iran’s leadership, therefore, faces the complex task of formulating a measured yet firm response to Israel’s political murder of the Hamas leader.

In responding, Iran and its allies within the “axis of resistance” must navigate a delicate path.

Tehran’s strategy should focus on showcasing its resilience and capability to retaliate against aggression without escalating into a full-scale war. This could involve a combination of diplomatic efforts, strengthening regional alliances and selective military-security responses to deter further Israeli state terrorism.

Iran and its allies now see themselves compelled to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination by targeting Israeli political and military officials. This approach would signal a shift towards a more direct and retaliatory stance, but could potentially heighten the risks of further escalation. By mirroring Israel’s tactics, Iran would aim to demonstrate its resolve and capacity to inflict reciprocal damage, thereby maintaining its position in the regional power dynamics.

The current geopolitical climate in the Middle East is highly volatile, with multiple actors pursuing divergent interests. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh is a stark reminder of the intricate and often perilous nature of regional politics. For Iran, maintaining internal stability and strengthening its regional position will be crucial in the coming months.

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Israel has focused all its efforts on lowering the level of rationality in Iran and any kind of interaction-oriented activism in the region and the world. The non-constructive approaches of Europe and the United States and the passivity of the Eastern powers as well as the inefficiency of international institutions are another motivation for Iran to finally choose nuclear deterrence as a strategic choice, not least because a recent poll indicated Iranian public support for the Islamic Republic having nuclear weapons.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.