The European stance on Palestine is changing

The European stance on the issue of Palestine, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Gaza, exhibits a complex and often contradictory nature across different EU member states and institutions, including the European Commission, the EU and the European Council. Historically, the EU has supported the two-state solution, advocating for the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the nominal 1967 borders. EU statements and policies have described Israeli settlements in the West Bank consistently as illegal under international law and emphasised the necessity of diplomatic resolutions and respect for human rights.

However, recent developments have highlighted a shift from this consistent values-based rhetoric. The EU’s approach to the recent conflict has not included calls for an immediate ceasefire or an end to the suffering of Palestinians. The absence of condemnation regarding Israeli attacks and settler violence in the West Bank suggests a divergence from previous positions and a noticeable alignment with the US administration’s unequivocal support for Israel.

This divergence reflects an internal division within the EU regarding the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

While European institutions maintain a formal commitment to negotiation and peaceful solutions, the individual positions of member states have shown considerable variation. Some EU countries have taken bold steps, such as officially recognising the State of Palestine or condemning Israeli actions. For example, Ireland, Spain, Norway and Slovenia have all recognised the State of Palestine over the past few months, marking a significant shift in European diplomacy.

These moves indicate a growing fracture in the traditionally pro-Israel stance of the EU, and represent a departure from its historic support for the occupation state, reflecting a broader shift towards a more balanced position. This shift is evidenced further by widespread protests across various European countries condemning Israeli policies and expressing solidarity with the Palestinian people.

The European response to the ongoing violence in Gaza has included tangible diplomatic steps that suggest a small but noticeable shift towards more explicit support for Palestinian rights. This is part of a larger trend where some European countries are increasingly vocal in their criticism of Israeli policies and actions.

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The trend towards recognising Palestine is likely to continue; Malta has already indicated its intention to follow suit. If this continues, it is anticipated that up to 13 of the 27 EU member states could officially recognise Palestine in the near future. This would represent a substantial gain for Palestine and its cause on the international stage, given that the total number of countries recognising Palestine now stands at 146 out of 193 UN member states.

This shift in European policy is driven not only by events in Gaza, but also by a broader international desire to hold Israel accountable for alleged human rights violations and war crimes. In this context, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s remark that, “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no peace plan for Palestine” reflects a growing European frustration with Israel’s current policies and a desire for a more substantial and effective approach to the conflict.

Despite these positive developments, the European stance remains multifaceted and faces significant challenges.

The internal divisions among EU member states and the complex political dynamics within Europe contribute to a fragmented approach to Israel-Palestine. While some countries are pushing for stronger support for Palestinian rights, others remain cautious or supportive of Israel, reflecting the broader geopolitical and strategic considerations that influence European foreign policy.

The potential for successive crises in Israel-EU relations is high, especially as the Israeli government prepares to take punitive diplomatic measures against countries that recognise Palestine. This response from Israel could complicate the diplomatic landscape even further, leading to ongoing tensions between Israel and European countries.

This evolving stance reflects a complex interplay of values-based principles and pragmatic political considerations, highlighting the challenges faced by Europe in balancing its historical support for Israel with the growing international pressure to address Palestinian rights and grievances. As Europe navigates these shifting dynamics, the impact on its relations with Israel and its role in the international diplomatic arena will be watched closely. The ongoing adjustments in European policy towards Palestine demonstrate a commitment to reassessing and potentially realigning its approach to one of the most enduring and contentious conflicts in international relations.

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