Sudan is continuing to boost its diplomatic and military campaigns

Attempts by the United Kingdom and others to push through a closed-door resolution to establish a UN force in Sudan failed this week when Khartoum, supported by Moscow and Beijing, rejected the draft resolution. The attempt to approve a relief humanitarian aid package for Sudan came after a UN-backed report called for an “independent and impartial force” to be introduced in the country. The report also suggested widening an arms embargo to protect civilians in the escalating conflict.

Experts commissioned by the UN Human Rights Council concluded that the warring parties — the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces militia (RSF) — have “committed a horrific series of human rights violations and international crimes, many of which may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.” The head of the fact-finding mission to Sudan, Mohamed Chande Osman, said that, “The gravity of these findings underscores the urgent need for immediate action to protect civilians.”

The report made no mention of which countries could be included in an “independent and impartial force”, but commentators confirmed that the Sudanese government would reject any such force which tried to enter Sudan. “I do not see progress in the call to deploy foreign forces in Sudan,” the Governor of Darfur, Mini Minawi, told Al Jazeera TV. “The United Nations deployed forces in Sudan before and did nothing. During that time, asylum, displacement and migration increased, and the Janjaweed were strengthened and transformed into the Rapid Support Forces.”

Many believe that the current heavy rain and floods in Sudan provide an opportunity to impede the progress of the paramilitary RSF.

The Sudanese Air Force has intensified its bombardments of RSF locations across the country. The Sudanese Army has a major advantage in air power, using fighter aircraft and helicopters, as well as Antonov transport aircraft that drop incendiary barrel bombs on targeted areas, as they did in the war against rebels in Darfur that broke out in 2003. Although the air force has lost many aircraft since war with the RSF erupted in mid-April last year, it has strengthened its air strike capabilities in recent weeks. Warplanes have been carrying out daily raids, unprecedented since the beginning of the war, in various areas controlled by the RSF.

Observers link the intensified bombardments to rumours about the army obtaining new aircraft. Others claim that Russia has already started to offer military assistance to Sudan’s Army, saying that it has hired foreign technicians and pilots to fly the aircraft. However, others say that Egypt has supplied the aircraft following the visit to Cairo by Sudan’s de facto ruler, General Abdul Fatah Al-Burhan. I believe that Egypt is not the source of the Chinese-made aircraft, although Sudan does get aviation fuel from the Egyptians. According to Radio Dabanga, a news outlet in Darfur, attacks last week confirmed the extensive use of warplanes, with air strikes on Jabrat El Sheikh in North Kordofan, Zalingei in Central Darfur, Mellit and Fashshar in North Darfur, and Wad Madni in El Gezira.

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The intensity of the military campaign has been coupled with a busier diplomatic campaign. Al-Burhan met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Forum of the Chinese and Africa cooperation summit and signed deals with Chinese companies for nuclear power and port and airport projects. The deals aim to meet Sudan’s stated goal of developing a peaceful nuclear energy programme, upgrading seaports and modernising airports. Specific details of the projects, including timelines and financial terms, were not disclosed.

Sudan is hoping to attract the international community, particularly in the Global South, to assist the government to boost its ailing, war-stricken economy.

Furthermore, talk about establishing a Russian military base on Sudan’s Red Sea coastline has resurfaced again, with unconfirmed reports that Russia will build a logistical support centre. The armed forces-backed Sovereign Council member and Assistant Commander in Chief Lieutenant General Yasir Al-Atta announced three months ago that Sudan and Russia were to sign a series of military and economic agreements. Such a move is of interest to the United States, of course, which will be concerned about Russia having any undue influence in the region.

Despite the clear support that Russia has expressed to Sudan at the UN Security Council, it is still unclear whether Russia’s private Wagner militia supports the RSF. Reports in May suggested that the Wagner group was still providing military supplies to the RSF through the Central African Republic.

It remains to be seen whether Sudan will choose Russia and China in its corner or whether changes in Washington’s policy towards the RSF will lead to a rapprochement with Khartoum. With diplomats on all sides publicly claiming disinterest in Sudan’s internal affairs, the question is simple: which country or countries is Sudan willing to invite to the table for military or political support towards ending the war and defeating the RSF?

READ: Over 20,000 dead in Sudan conflict, says WHO chief

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.