A second presidential term for Kais Saied … at what political cost?

The Parliament session was another episode in the strange scenes that Tunisia has witnessed in recent years. The Parliament, described as Kais Saied’s Parliament, was able to isolate the minority that declared its rebellion and refused to legitimise the draft electoral law and weaken the administrative court. Hence, the majority was able to pass the draft, which it defended with great determination, under the pretext of “the existence of an imminent danger”, an argument that has become widely used whenever there is a conflict between constitutional and democratic mechanisms and the interests of the presidency. When their colleagues in Parliament asked them about the nature of this imminent danger, they spoke to them about colonialism agents and external threats and reminded them of the wars that broke out in Libya, Sudan and Yemen.

Members of Parliament tried to challenge this trap to the point that one of them declared that “the law is unconstitutional, and the amendment is a crime against the state”. This was agreed upon by legal experts, including Kais Saied, who considered amending the electoral law a few months before the elections to be “an assassination of democracy”. He played the radio statement to his colleagues during the session, so the Speaker of Parliament took the floor back from him under the pretext that “it is unacceptable to broadcast the words of another person”. Even the Provisional Supreme Judicial Council (the structure of which was amended by the President of the State) sent a letter informing Parliament of its rejection of the amendment. Despite this, the amendment was passed by a comfortable majority. So, what will happen during the ten days separating Tunisians from 6 October, 2024?

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The opposition is expected to escalate its rhetoric and protest movements, despite the different positions of its parties regarding whether or not to participate in the vote. Those who called for voting in large numbers for candidate, Ayachi Zammel, and are working to increase his electoral balance, now find themselves, in light of the rug being pulled out from under the administrative court, unable to turn the tables as they planned. This is because no matter how many votes their candidate, who was sentenced to one year and eight months in prison, will win, he will not be accepted, and they will not find a neutral committee who will do him justice. As for those who decided to continue resorting to the judiciary, changing the rules of the game means they lose a weapon that would have been effective before Parliament sided with Kais Saied.

What happened in the House of Representatives deepened the political crisis and expanded the circle of those who doubt the credibility and integrity of the upcoming elections. Despite the weakness of the current Parliament since its election, last Friday’s session completely destroyed it and turned it into an unusable version, not even usable to defend Saied, who could have relied on Article 90 of the Constitution without going through Parliament, by issuing a decree reducing the powers of the administrative court, as he did with the rest of the judicial structures. He is no longer interested in the legal and formal aspects of managing state affairs. He only believes that his political message must continue and refuses to allow any force on earth to try to hinder him and prevent him from completing his project. The “national liberation” battle, which he has been leading for three years, is more important and sacred to him than any elections or any turnout on election day. He has cornered his opponents and pushed them towards difficult choices.

One of the most dangerous issues that the developments have revealed recently is the success of the authorities in encircling the parties and restricting the intermediary bodies. Despite the mobilisation attempts initiated by the Tunisian Network for Democracy and Freedoms to activate the role of civil society, especially by urging young people to contribute, once again, to creating an anti-Saied climate, the distance between the active movements in the country is still deep.

In any case, the political crisis will become more complicated after the elections, as it is unlikely that there will be a fundamental change in the scene in the coming days. However, the outgoing President’s supporters will not feel reassured until Saied is announced the winner of a second term, but the political and economic cost will be heavy.

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This article appeared in Arabic in Al Araby on 30 September, 2024. 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.