Trump, Algerian law and the future of normalisation with Israel

During his first term (2017-2021), Donald Trump’s pressures resulted in major successes in the normalisation file between Arab countries and Israel. Peace agreements were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel and Bahrain, and a normalisation agreement was signed between Morocco and Israel in December 2020 with US mediation. This makes Morocco the sixth Arab country to normalise relations with the occupying state after Egypt (1979), Jordan (1994), the UAE (2020), Bahrain (2020) and Sudan (2020). Trump also put intense pressure on other Arab countries to normalise relations with Israel or to deepen existing political and economic normalisation, and some of these countries were on the brink of doing the same until Trump lost the presidential election to Joe Biden in 2020.

Following the signing of the peace agreements in 2020, unprecedented economic and commercial normalisation was established between the normalising countries and Israel, and huge economic and trade deals were announced. The UAE announced the signing of a comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Tel Aviv, and in March 2021, Abu Dhabi revealed the establishment of a $10 billion fund to support investments in Israel, proclaiming that it sought to increase economic relations with Israel to more than $1 trillion over the next decade.

Morocco also deepened its security, economic and tourism cooperation with Israel by signing a $1 billion arms purchase deal and signing agreements to stimulate trade and promote tourism between them. In December 2020, the first direct flight arrived from Tel Aviv to Rabat carrying a joint American-Israeli delegation to discuss agreements to normalise relations between Rabat and Tel Aviv. Israel and Bahrain have launched negotiations for a “free trade” agreement, and trade between the two countries has grown significantly. Manama and Tel Aviv have exchanged delegations to discuss developing relations in the fields of tourism, trade, direct investment and modern technology.

With Trump winning a second term, many fear that the issue of normalisation will return to the forefront, as was the case during his first term, but these fears may be exaggerated. The Al-Aqsa Flood battle has halted normalisation projects for years to come, and the Arab street has witnessed a change in the general attitude towards the occupying state. Boycott campaigns against the occupying state’s goods and products have returned after Arab regimes tried to bury the boycott forever, cancel the Arab agreement for the economic boycott of Israel and promote those goods in the markets of the region’s countries. Recent opinion polls have revealed a sharp decline in the people’s support for normalising relations with Israel in countries with normalised relations, such as Egypt, Jordan and Morocco.

The boycott and pressure by the Arab people succeeded in inflicting heavy losses on companies supporting the occupation in its genocidal war against the people of Gaza. A few days ago, the Jordanian people succeeded in banishing the Carrefour chain of stores from their country, while the boycott efforts led to the closures of branches of major companies and brands inside the Kingdom.

The matter does not end here, as Arab parliaments have moved towards passing legislation prohibiting economic normalisation with Israel. The latest example is more than 60 members of the Parliament of Algerian, who submitted a draft law to ban any commercial and financial dealings between Algerian companies and their foreign counterparts funding Israel. It also stipulates ending the activity of all foreign brands that support the occupying state and activating all mechanisms of the economic boycott against Israel.

In fact, the new draft law explicitly prohibits: “Any economic contact with Israel, criminalises economic dealings with the Zionist enemy, prohibits the entry of its products into the national territory, prohibits settler products and companies supporting them, cancels the trademarks of companies supporting the Zionist entity, and activates the economic boycott of companies and brands supporting the entity.”

The Algerian move preceded the Tunisian Parliament’s discussion of a draft law criminalising normalisation with Israel, proposing penalties that have no statute of limitations, punishing anyone who commits the crime of normalisation with a six to 12-year prison sentence and a fine ranging from 10,000-100,000 dinars (about $3,200-$32,000).

The Arab public in 2024 is not the same as the 2020 version, however. Therefore, Trump may find it difficult to bring the issue of normalisation back to the forefront and impose it on everyone, even if he tries to inflict it on Arab regimes.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on 10 November 2024

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