Two factions at war to decide America’s future: Is Trump’s America First already struggling?

Donald Trump, who has outperformed and beaten all his opponents’ attempts, has not entirely won his goal to “Make America Great Again” just yet. He has won the election in both the electoral votes and the popular vote, defying criticism from the mainstream media and establishment politicians in both the Democratic and Republican Parties.

The US election has come close to a political world war, with every possible factor at stake. Trump has now emerged victorious in the first phase of becoming the 47th president of the US. The election was broadcast live on nearly every mainstream media channel, including social media, which made it much harder for his opponents to manipulate the results or obscure the process.

His opponents tried everything—from leveraging the legal system to exert pressure on those close to him to pushing for nationwide voting without consistent voter ID verification. Interestingly, states where Democrats performed well tended to have lenient or absent voter ID laws, raising questions about the credibility of the results.

Today, Trump and his core team have entered the second phase of this political war: manoeuvring through the offline and shadowy realms of politics, often hidden from ordinary citizens. Trump’s strategy now involves placing “America First” candidates in key positions that eluded him during his previous term in office (2017-2021). However, he’s on establishment turf now, where he’s up against political insiders accustomed to exerting influence behind closed doors.

Although Trump effectively leveraged his entertainment background to connect with the public and broadcast his message freely on social media platforms like X and TikTok, the world of “dark politics” is very different. This arena operates without the transparency of social media and is proving to be an uphill battle for Trump and his America First agenda.

One challenge lies in Trump’s attempt to balance diplomacy with filling government positions. On the one hand, he must navigate demands from foreign policy experts and institutions that favour establishment figures. On the other, he’s determined to position loyal America First candidates in key roles. This balancing act reveals where his allies’ loyalties truly lie. At this phase, Trump may once again find himself disappointed by those in his outer circle, who gained his trust only to undermine his policy goals at a critical moment.

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Despite Trump’s popularity, figures like Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson—who possess influence and media platforms—are limited in how much they can expose about these dark political processes. The reasons for this are likely complex; it’s possible they either do not want to or are unable to shed light on how the political establishment actually functions. The America First movement, which is relatively small, is pitted against a deeply rooted establishment, one that has permeated US institutions and government bodies for decades. This entrenched power, dating back to major political shifts like the post-JFK era, poses a significant challenge to Trump’s ambitions.

A recent example of establishment influence can be seen in Trump’s selection of Elise Stefanik as the United Nations ambassador. While Stefanik is known for her alignment with Trump’s policies in some areas, the choice suggests a need for Trump to compromise or that his power is being subtly curtailed. Establishment Republicans are simultaneously trying to limit Trump’s influence further, particularly by vying for Senate leadership positions that could either support or obstruct America First policies. If Senator Rick Scott wins his current Senate battle, Trump will secure a crucial win for his agenda. However, if Scott loses, the establishment will have an influential figure positioned to challenge and dilute Trump’s initiatives from within.

As Trump fills other top positions, observers will be scrutinising each choice closely, knowing that the Trump administration may have factions within itself. If the establishment can install its allies in critical roles, it would create a third phase of resistance to slow Trump’s agenda. In this phase, anti-America First factions will work on obstructing key policies, blocking legislative progress and even targeting Trump-appointed officials to discredit or replace them, a tactic that could slowly undermine Trump’s agenda over the next several years.

For Trump’s supporters, the greatest frustration is likely a feeling of helplessness. The intricacies of political appointments and bureaucratic infighting are opaque, leaving supporters unsure how to help or even understand the full scope of the struggle. The stakes, however, extend far beyond Washington. What unfolds in the coming months will not only shape the future of the US, but also send powerful ripples across the world stage.

Should Trump’s America First vision gain traction, the ripple effects could realign global alliances, impact international trade dynamics and redefine US foreign policy priorities in regions like the Middle East, Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Countries around the world are closely watching this internal American conflict, knowing it will ultimately affect their own economies, security strategies and political landscapes. Allies accustomed to traditional US diplomacy may need to adjust, while rivals, too, are recalibrating their expectations.

For supporters, this battle isn’t just about domestic policy—it represents a fight for what the US stands for and how it engages with the rest of the world.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.