Indonesia in the crossfire: Israel-Iran conflict and Western hypocrisy

Indonesia is being affected today not because of its own conflicts, but because of a war ignited thousands of miles away, rooted in Israel’s relentless warmongering policies. The current Iran-Israel confrontation, which is now destabilising global oil markets and creating economic uncertainty in Indonesia, should serve as a stark reminder: the turmoil we face is a direct consequence of a conflict perpetuated by Israel’s military aggression and the ongoing hypocrisy of the West that enables it.

Since October 2023, Israel’s campaign against Gaza has devastated a civilian population trapped under siege. The systematic bombardment, destruction, and blockade have killed tens of thousands and created a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions. Far from a purely defensive act, this is a policy of ongoing aggression and subjugation.

Iran’s recent missile strikes, though portrayed by many Western leaders as reckless provocations, are retaliations born out of this sustained Israeli violence. The 13 June Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, killing scores of people, was not a spontaneous event but part of an aggressive escalation that Tehran responded to. This spiral of violence is rooted in Israel’s choice to pursue military dominance rather than peace.

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Indonesia, though geographically distant, is caught in the crossfire. Brent crude prices jumped 13 per cent on the day of the Israeli strikes, surging to $78.50 per barrel. Should Iran block the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of global oil, the price could soar to $130 a barrel, creating significant challenges for Indonesia’s economy. With nearly 17 million tons of crude oil imported in 2024, primarily routed through strategic shipping lanes affected by the conflict, Indonesia’s energy security is under direct threat.

Indonesia’s 2025 budget projected oil at $82 per barrel with a rupiah exchange rate of 16,000 to the dollar. Both assumptions are already outdated as prices climb and the rupiah weakens past 16,300 Indonesian rupiah. Indonesia’s energy subsidy bill, currently at Rp 203 trillion, may exceed Rp 250 trillion, forcing the government to either raise fuel prices, risk inflation and social unrest, or increase subsidies and strain fiscal resources.

Beyond economics, the crisis reveals a deeper injustice: the West’s blatant double standards. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Western powers rapidly condemned aggression and rallied international law against the invader. But Israel’s pre-emptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, an undeclared act of war, have been met with muted responses and even tacit support. European leaders praised Israel’s “right to self-defence” while condemning Iran’s counterattacks. Germany called Israel’s strikes “targeted” but Iran’s retaliation “indiscriminate.” This selective morality damages the credibility of international law and leaves countries like Indonesia vulnerable to the fallout of wars they did not start.

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Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority democracy, must not forget who ignited this fire. It is Israel’s persistent warmongering, attacking Gaza, targeting Iranian facilities, and provoking retaliations that fuels regional instability. It is the West’s hypocrisy of shielding Israel from accountability while castigating its opponents that enables this cycle to continue.

At this moment, Indonesia must adopt a clear-eyed approach. Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto has downplayed the conflict’s impact, saying the transmission of Middle Eastern tensions to Indonesia is “relatively slow.” But with oil markets volatile and the rupiah weakening, delay is a luxury we cannot afford. The government must urgently target subsidies to protect vulnerable citizens and accelerate investment in domestic renewable energy sources to reduce strategic dependence on volatile global oil supplies.

Diplomatically, Indonesia must amplify its voice. Foreign Minister Sugiono has condemned the Israeli aggression, but more forceful leadership is needed. Indonesia should leverage its role in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), ASEAN, and the Non-Aligned Movement to demand consistent application of international law. Attacks on nuclear facilities are prohibited under the Geneva Conventions with no exceptions, and Israel’s actions must be held to the same standards as any other state.

Indonesia needs to remind the world that legality cannot be selective. Ignoring Israel’s provocations while condemning Iranian responses undermines global norms and emboldens further conflict. Indonesia must reject this dangerous double standard.

The war between Israel and Iran is not Indonesia’s war, but its consequences are Indonesia’s challenge. The economic ripple effects hitting Jakarta today stem from a conflict born of Israeli aggression and sustained by Western hypocrisy. As our nation navigates rising prices and fiscal pressures, we must remember this truth and stand firm in demanding justice and peace.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.