The Middle East in America’s arms diplomacy trap

The United States, as the world’s largest arms exporter, leverages its military-industrial complex to bolster its economy and expand geopolitical influence. In May 2025, this dependency was starkly revealed during former President Donald Trump’s visit to the Middle East, where massive arms deals were signed with Saudi Arabia ($142 billion), Qatar ($1.96 billion), and the United Arab Emirates ($1.6 billion), bringing these countries’ total investment commitments to over $1.4 trillion. Marketed as economic achievements, these deals underscore the deep entanglement of the US economy with the arms trade—a dependence that, by militarizing volatile regions like the Middle East, poses serious threats to global peace and stability.

The large-scale sale of advanced weaponry intensifies the risks of arms races, empowers authoritarian regimes, and fuels regional conflicts, ultimately undermining the international order. This trend not only exacerbates existing tensions but also increases the likelihood of misuse of advanced military technologies in unlawful conflicts. This analysis explores the economic drivers of US arms exports, the implications of the 2025 Gulf arms deals, and their destabilizing effects on the Middle East, arguing that America’s economic reliance on arms sales prioritizes short-term profits over long-term global security.

The economic imperative of US arms sales

The US military-industrial complex forms a central pillar of the national economy, creating millions of jobs and generating significant export revenue. In 2023, the U.S. accounted for 43 per cent of global arms exports, supplying weapons to at least 107 countries. Defense giants like Lockheed Martin and Boeing play a major role in GDP and employment, and arms sales help fund the cost of maintaining global military dominance. According to the Center for American Progress, the Gulf deals—especially the $142 billion agreement with Saudi Arabia—directly support US defence industries and reinforce economic dependence on militarised foreign policy.

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However, this economic model has a dark side. The overemphasis on arms exports often sidelines ethical considerations, as reflected in America’s willingness to arm undemocratic regimes. Al Jazeera highlighted Saudi Arabia’s controversial human rights record, including the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which calls into question the moral legitimacy of supplying it with weapons. The New York Times also reported on congressional concerns over arms deals with Qatar and the UAE, emphasizing risks of corruption and human rights abuses. This economic dependency creates a vicious cycle: to sustain defense industry profits, the US must perpetuate or expand global demand for arms—a strategy that often comes at the expense of global stability.

Trump’s 2025 Middle East visit: A case study in arms diplomacy

Donald Trump’s May 2025 trip to the Middle East—visiting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—was a textbook example of an economy-first strategy built around arms trade. The visit resulted in enormous arms deals: $142 billion with Saudi Arabia, $1.96 billion with Qatar for Boeing aircraft, and $1.6 billion with the UAE over a decade, pushing total Gulf investment beyond $2 trillion. The agreements included advanced weapons systems, logistical support, and training programs that significantly boosted the Gulf countries’ military capabilities.

Trump portrayed the deals as major economic wins, emphasizing job creation and investment attraction. However, beyond economic goals, the agreements were part of a broader strategy to deepen US geopolitical influence in the region. Trump described Saudi Arabia as a key ally against Iran and framed the arms sales as a means to balance regional threats. This transactional approach—prioritizing economic and military interests—undermined diplomatic efforts to resolve regional conflicts such as those in Gaza and Yemen. For example, the UAE’s proposal to participate in a Gaza security force, backed by US arms, demonstrated how such deals fuel further militarization rather than support peace.

Security implications of arms sales to the Gulf

The influx of US weapons into the Gulf poses major threats to Middle Eastern stability and global security. The $142 billion deal with Saudi Arabia equips the kingdom with advanced arms and likely escalates its rivalry with regional adversaries. The deal’s logistical and training components ensure long-term military dependence on the US, perpetuating a militarisation cycle. In Yemen, where the Saudi-led coalition faces criticism for civilian casualties, these arms risk prolonging and intensifying the conflict, undermining humanitarian efforts.

The $1.6 billion UAE and $1.96 billion Qatar deals—covering Chinook helicopters, drones, and F-16 components—enhance these nations’ regional clout but disrupt fragile geopolitical balances. The UAE’s ambition to establish the world’s largest AI campus, fueled by US technology transfers including 500,000 NVIDIA chips, raises alarms about potential misuse for mass surveillance or transfer to rivals like China. Similarly, Qatar’s arms purchases, coupled with its ties to Hamas, complicate its role as a mediator in Gaza talks and raise doubts about its neutrality.

These deals undeniably trigger new arms races and crises across the region. Enhanced military capabilities, especially among rivals, can transform tensions into open conflict. Moreover, the spread of advanced military technologies and AI increases the risk of their misuse in regional disputes, further dimming prospects for lasting peace.

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Moral and global security concerns

The ethical consequences of US arms sales are profound. Saudi Arabia’s human rights record—including the murder of Khashoggi and its role in Yemen’s humanitarian crisis—raises moral questions about arming such regimes. The New York Times cited efforts by congressional Democrats to block deals with Qatar and the UAE, citing corruption risks and Trump’s business interests. These sales may also violate the UN Arms Trade Treaty, as they facilitate harm to civilians.

Globally, the expansion of U.S. arms sales increases instability in other regions. Technology transfers, such as NVIDIA chips to the UAE, could eventually reach adversaries like China, undermining US national security and global stability. Falling oil prices may also push Gulf states to bolster military strength to maintain influence—further destabilizing the region. These dynamics show that America’s economic dependence on arms exports creates a feedback loop: weapon sales increase demand, prolong conflicts, and make further sales essential for economic continuity.

The broader context: A pattern of militarised foreign policy

The 2025 Gulf arms deals are part of a broader historical pattern. For example, the $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia in 2017 during Trump’s first term aimed at major economic gains but yielded limited results, with many promised investments unfulfilled. This trend reflects a broader US strategy of leveraging arms exports to expand economic and geopolitical influence—often at the expense of peace and stability. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that US arms exports have consistently fueled global weapons trade growth and are linked to increased conflict in recipient regions.

The Middle East, as a top destination for US arms, exemplifies this pattern. Amnesty International’s report on global arms trade shows how American weapons have exacerbated conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Libya, intensifying civilian suffering and regional instability. The 2025 Gulf deals, with their focus on advanced arms and technologies, heighten these risks and perpetuate a cycle of violence.

America’s deep economic reliance on arms sales—demonstrated by the massive deals signed during Donald Trump’s 2025 Middle East trip—poses a significant threat to peace, stability, and global security. The $142 billion deal with Saudi Arabia, along with Qatar’s $1.96 billion and the UAE’s $1.6 billion contracts, prioritize economic and defense industry profits over ethical and diplomatic considerations. These transactions fuel regional arms races, empower regimes with troubling human rights records, and increase the risk of technology proliferation—all of which undermine Middle East stability and global security. The US’s transactional approach, which sidelines peace efforts in Gaza and Yemen, sustains a militarization cycle that threatens the long-term international order. America’s dependence on arms exports will continue to destabilize sensitive regions like the Middle East, with far-reaching consequences for global peace.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.